CRITICAL THERMAL CRISIS – KYIV (2138Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Reports indicate indoor temperatures in Kyiv residential buildings have dropped below 13°C (55°F) following targeted strikes on Thermal Power Plants (TPPs). This confirms the "City-Kill" doctrine's immediate humanitarian impact.
GOVERNMENT COUNTERMEASURES – ENERGY (2144Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): PM Shmyhal has announced an emergency strategy for Kyiv, likely involving distributed energy sources (cogeneration units and modular boilers) to restore heat/light.
POSITIONAL COMBAT – ZAPORIZHZHIA (2134Z, Slivochniy Kapriz, MEDIUM): Active positional fighting confirmed in the Huliaipole – Dobropillya – Sladke triangle. This indicates a potential RU effort to probe the southern flank while UA attention is fixed on the north.
EXPANDED HISTORICAL IO – ROMANIA/ODESA (2145Z, TASS/RU MoD, HIGH): Following the "Leningrad genocide" narrative, the RU MoD released documents alleging a "Romanian terrorist military dictatorship" in Odesa during WWII. This targets the Balkan flank of NATO.
INTERNAL GERMAN FRICTION (2155Z, Tsaplienko/AfD, HIGH): Alice Weidel (AfD) publicly demanded €85bn in "reparations" from Ukraine for arms and Nord Stream damages. This aligns with RU reflexive control efforts to fracture German support.
CONTINUING UAV OFFENSIVE (2153Z, Nikolaevsky Vanek, HIGH): General "moped" (Shahed) update indicates the aerial threat remains active and multi-vector across the central axis.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv Sector:
The situation has transitioned from a kinetic strike phase to a critical sustainment crisis. With indoor temperatures at 13°C, the threat of mass internal displacement or "freeze-out" is rising. The earlier ISR mapping drone (2112Z previous report) likely provided the coordinates used to precision-target the TPP components currently causing this localized blackout.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia):
Battlefield geometry is shifting toward the Huliaipole-Sladke axis. Combat is characterized as "positional" (2134Z), suggesting neither side has achieved a breakthrough, but the activation of this sector suggests RU is attempting to prevent UA from redeploying reserves to the Kyiv/Eastern sectors.
Central Sector (Kryvyi Rih/Dnipro):
The Shahed wave reported at 2126Z (previous sitrep) remains active. RU is likely using these to maintain a "permanent threat" environment, keeping AD units engaged and preventing the restoration of power grids in the Dnipro-Kryvyi Rih industrial cluster.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Implementation of "City-Kill": RU is no longer just hitting "energy infrastructure" generally; they are targeting the "thermal backbone" of major cities during peak winter. This is a deliberate attempt to trigger a humanitarian collapse.
Diplomatic Pivot: The visa-waiver agreement with Myanmar (2133Z) and the IRNA interview (2201Z) regarding Venezuela indicate Russia is actively consolidating a "Coalition of the Sanctioned" to offset Western diplomatic pressure.
Hybrid Operations: The RU MoD’s focus on Romanian "atrocities" in Odesa (2145Z) suggests a shift in information operations toward Romania. This may precede hybrid provocations in the Black Sea or a diplomatic campaign to pressure Bucharest.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Emergency Resilience: PM Shmyhal’s move toward modular boilers (2144Z) represents a tactical shift toward decentralizing the energy grid. This is the only viable defense against the "City-Kill" doctrine in the short term.
Defensive Hold: Units in the Zaporizhzhia sector (Huliaipole) are successfully maintaining lines despite increased pressure. Successful drone operations against RU personnel continue to be a primary attrition tool (2148Z, Operativnyi ZSU).
Information environment / disinformation
Reflexive Control (Germany/AfD): The amplification of AfD's demand for €85bn (2155Z) is being used in the RU-linked info-space to portray UA as a financial liability to Europe, specifically targeting the German taxpayer’s "fatigue."
Historical Weaponization: The RU MoD is using International Holocaust Remembrance Day to frame modern-day NATO allies (Romania) as historical villains. This is a high-confidence indicator of a campaign to delegitimize the Eastern Flank’s security posture.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued saturation of the Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih airspaces with low-cost UAVs to prevent repair crews from accessing hit TPP sites.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A follow-up missile strike (Kalibr or Kh-101) targeting the specific "modular energy" nodes Shmyhal announced. If RU can disrupt the backup/distributed energy plan, the Kyiv thermal crisis will become irreversible within 24 hours.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Real-time damage assessment of Kyiv TPPs: Determine if the damage is to the turbines (months to repair) or the step-up transformers (weeks to replace).
[HIGH] Monitoring for RU "Zircon" or "Kinzhal" carrier movements: The high-precision nature of the "City-Kill" doctrine suggests these assets may be used for final-blow strikes on hardened backup infrastructure.
[MEDIUM] Evaluation of Romanian political response to the "Odesa Dictatorship" narrative to gauge the effectiveness of RU’s latest IO vector.
