Situation Update (1902Z 26 JAN 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- MARTIAL LAW & MOBILIZATION EXTENDED (1859Z, RBC-UA, HIGH): President Zelenskyy has officially signed laws extending martial law and general mobilization.
- DIPLOMATIC PIVOT: ABU DHABI TALKS (1851Z, TASS/White House, HIGH): The White House has characterized trilateral negotiations in the UAE regarding Ukraine as "historical." This is being heavily amplified by Russian state media.
- KAB STRIKE VECTORS (1847Z-1849Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting Kharkiv, Sumy, and Mezhova (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast).
- UAV THREAT DE-ESCALATION IN KRYVYI RIH (1858Z, Vanyok, HIGH): Of the previous eight OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) near Kryvyi Rih, only two remain active; they have transited into Kirovohrad Oblast.
- DOBROPILLYA AXIS OFFENSIVE (1855Z, Rybar, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources report renewed tactical assaults and mapping updates for the Dobropillya sector (Donetsk).
- NSDC REORGANIZATION (1835Z, RBC-UA, HIGH): President Zelenskyy has updated the composition of the National Security and Defense Council, likely aligning C2 with recent "Technological Leadership" priorities.
- STATED RU TARGETING LOGIC (1839Z, Putin/Z-Channels, MEDIUM): Putin publicly claimed Russia is being pressured to cease infrastructure strikes while UA drone strikes on Russian soil continue—likely a rhetorical precursor to justifying further "City-Kill" escalations.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kharkiv/Southeastern Sector:
The city remains under a total blackout. The threat has evolved from OWA-UAVs to heavy guided bombs (KABs) launched at 1847Z. This suggests a multi-layered suppression of recovery efforts. Sumy is also currently under KAB threat, indicating a widening of the northern strike zone.
Donetsk Sector (Dobropillya/Pokrovsk):
Kinetic activity is intensifying along the Dobropillya axis. Russian elements from the Vostok Group (specifically the 37th Guards Brigade) are conducting targeted strikes on UAF shelters (1900Z). Heavy FAB strikes have been confirmed by pro-Russian sources (1844Z) in this sector, likely intended to soften defensive lines ahead of ground assaults.
Dnipropetrovsk Sector:
The immediate threat to Kryvyi Rih has partially subsided as the UAV swarm dispersed or was neutralized, leaving two units heading toward Kirovohrad. However, a new threat vector has emerged via KABs heading for Mezhova (1849Z), indicating the VKS is extending the reach of glide bombs further into the Ukrainian rear.
Southern Sector:
UAF "Army of Drones" continues high-tempo attrition. Minister Fedorov reports 820,000 targets engaged over the past year (1838Z). Russian Vostok Group reconnaissance units remain active, but no major territorial shifts have been confirmed beyond earlier reports near Huliaipole.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Tactical Air Adaptation: The VKS is increasingly relying on FAB/KAB sorties to compensate for ground friction. The "Stand down" (Otboy) signal at 1856Z for certain rotary/fixed-wing units may indicate the conclusion of a specific strike wave or a transition to night-flight maintenance.
- Strategic Deception: The Russian emphasis on the "historical" Abu Dhabi talks (1859Z) while simultaneously launching KABs at civilian centers (Kharkiv/Sumy) suggests a "talk-and-fight" strategy designed to induce Ukrainian hesitation while consolidating tactical gains.
- Internal Friction: Despite a #2 Global Firepower ranking, Russian milbloggers continue to report chronic logistical failures (lack of basic equipment/clothing), suggesting a persistent gap between Kremlin strategic messaging and frontline reality (1848Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
- C2 & Legal Framework: The extension of martial law and mobilization provides the necessary legal baseline for sustained operations. The NSDC shake-up and the appointment of a new ambassador to Georgia (1847Z) indicate a dual focus on internal security and regional diplomacy.
- Cyber Defense: The SBU's neutralization of 14,000+ cyberattacks highlights the scale of the ongoing multi-domain defense (1837Z).
- Logistics: Frontline units continue to rely on grassroots support for critical power needs (EcoFlows/generators) as the RU "City-Kill" doctrine degrades centralized energy grids (1849Z).
Information environment / disinformation
- "The Abu Dhabi Signal": Both the White House and Russian state media (TASS) are synchronizing on the "historical" nature of UAE talks. This is a high-impact narrative that may be intended to signal a potential diplomatic off-ramp or, conversely, freeze current UAF offensive momentum.
- Military Ranking Sarcasm: Russian sources are using the Global Firepower index to mock UAF's 20th place ranking. This is a standard demoralization tactic aimed at undermining international confidence in UA military efficacy.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA: Continued KAB strikes on Kharkiv and Sumy to prevent the restoration of power/heat. The 2 remaining Shaheds will likely target energy or transit hubs in Kirovohrad Oblast.
- MDCOA: Russian forces on the Dobropillya axis utilize the current KAB/FAB suppression to attempt a localized breakthrough, aiming to disrupt UAF logistics toward Pokrovsk.
- Tactical Decision Point: UA High Command must determine if the "Abu Dhabi" diplomatic activity requires a shift in defensive posture or if it serves as a Russian maskirovka for an imminent larger-scale strike.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [URGENT] Confirm the specific impact locations of the KABs launched at Mezhova (Dnipropetrovsk) to assess the depth of VKS glide-bomb capabilities.
- [HIGH] Identify the participants and specific agenda of the "historical" Abu Dhabi talks to differentiate between genuine mediation and diplomatic delay tactics.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor the Dobropillya axis for increased movement of armored reserves following the reported 37th Guards Brigade activity.
//REPORT ENDS//
