Situation Update (1832Z 26 JAN 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- KHARKIV TOTAL BLACKOUT (1804Z, Kotsnews/RBC-UA, HIGH): Following earlier strikes, the city is now reporting a total blackout. Utilities including water and heating are severely disrupted. A kindergarten in the city was confirmed damaged (1808Z).
- CRITICAL UAV ESCALATION IN KRYVYI RIH (1816Z, Vanyok/Ganzha, HIGH): The number of OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) active around Kryvyi Rih has increased to eight. A second high-rise building has been struck, initiating a large-scale fire and emergency rescue operation.
- CONTESTED STATUS OF ORIKHOVO-VASYLYIVKA (1806Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): UAF has officially denied Russian claims regarding the occupation of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (Bakhmut sector). Intense kinetic engagements are ongoing.
- RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR HULIAIPOLE (1815Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Russian "Vostok" elements have reportedly made tactical gains southwest of Huliaipole (East Zaporizhzhia direction).
- NATO PROCUREMENT PRIORITY (1831Z, RBC-UA, HIGH): NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has signaled that Ukrainian military requirements will take priority in EU defense procurement cycles.
- UAV VECTOR SHIFT (1815Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): A group of UAVs has transited eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and is now on a direct heading toward Kirovohrad Oblast.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kharkiv/Northeastern Sector:
The situation has degraded from localized outages to a city-wide blackout. The confirmation of a strike on a kindergarten (1808Z) and a total utility collapse (electricity, water, heat) indicates the "City-Kill" doctrine is in full effect. UAF counter-battery fire against Belgorod continues as a primary defensive measure to suppress launch platforms.
Donetsk Sector (Bakhmut/Sloviansk):
Orikhovo-Vasylivka remains a flashpoint. While Russian sources claimed occupation, UAF confirms the settlement is contested. Further north, the "Apache" drone unit near Sloviansk reports high-intensity attritional strikes against Russian infantry and armor in industrial zones (1816Z).
Zaporizhzhia/Southern Sector:
Russian forces have transitioned to localized offensive actions southwest of Huliaipole. In the Zaporizhzhia district, civilian casualties are reported (18-year-old female injured) following a drone strike (1824Z). The use of Unmanned Systems Forces is now the primary driver of Russian tactical pressure in this sector.
Dnipropetrovsk/Central Sector:
Kryvyi Rih is the current focal point of the OWA-UAV wave. With eight "Shaheds" confirmed in the immediate vicinity and multiple impacts on residential high-rises, the city's emergency services are likely at a breaking point.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Tactical Adaptation: The Russian MoD is highlighting the role of its "Unmanned Systems Forces" (1829Z), suggesting a formalization of drone-centric assault tactics across all fronts.
- Logistical Vulnerabilities: Despite tactical successes, Russian milbloggers are reporting significant confusion and logistical failures regarding basic supplies (clothing/equipment) within the Russian MoD (1814Z).
- Strike Profiling: The focus remains on residential density and critical life-support infrastructure. The timing of the Kharkiv blackout—just before a forecasted "snow cyclone"—indicates a deliberate attempt to weaponize environmental conditions.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- C2 Focus on Technology: President Zelenskyy and multiple Regional Military Administrations (OVA) have synchronized a strategic message regarding "Technological Leadership." This emphasizes a shift toward drone-on-drone warfare and rapid tech evolution as the primary defensive counter-measure.
- Defensive Resilience: UAF continues to hold the line in the Bakhmut sector (Orikhovo-Vasylivka) despite intense information pressure and RU offensive maneuvers.
Information environment / disinformation
- EU Fragmentation Narrative: Russian state-affiliated channels are heavily amplifying reports that France opposes using EU loans to purchase British Storm Shadow missiles (1812Z, 1831Z). This is a coordinated effort to portray European military aid as stalling due to internal friction.
- Battlefield Denial: UAF is actively countering premature Russian "victory" reports regarding the capture of settlements in Donetsk, indicating a high level of sensitivity to "creeping" Russian claims of territorial gain.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA: Continued UAV penetration into Kirovohrad and Chernihiv Oblasts. Expect Russian forces to attempt to consolidate gains near Huliaipole under the cover of the incoming storm.
- MDCOA: A sustained blackout in Kharkiv combined with the "snow cyclone" leading to a humanitarian crisis that forces UAF to reallocate front-line logistical assets to civilian support.
- Tactical Warning: The 8 Shaheds near Kryvyi Rih may be a precursor to a larger missile volley targeting the city's metallurgical or transit hubs.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [URGENT] Determine if the Russian advance southwest of Huliaipole has breached the main Ukrainian defensive belt.
- [HIGH] Identify the specific units of the Russian "Unmanned Systems Forces" operating in the Kirovohrad vector.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor Russian logistics hubs for "Mangas" heavy drone activity to identify the next priority assault sector.
//REPORT ENDS//
