Situation Report

Situation Update (1602Z 26 JAN 2026)

Key updates since last sitrep

• ACTIVE UAV WAVE OVER KYIV (1544Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): A new group of Russian UAVs has been detected approaching Kyiv from the south. This follows earlier reports of "ghost" drones (likely Geran-series) operating in the vicinity (1533Z, Kotsnews).
• ZAPORIZHZHIA CIVILIAN CASUALTIES (1534Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): 20 civilians are currently hospitalized following sustained Russian shelling/strikes on the region. While the air alert for Zaporizhzhia city has been cleared, a rocket threat remains for the oblast (1556Z).
• RESTRUCTURING OF KYIV METRO OPERATIONS (1556Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Movement on the "Red Line" has been modified due to the ongoing air threat, indicating a sustained defensive posture within the capital.
• KUPYANSK TACTICAL DATA (1533Z, Desantnik🇷🇺, MEDIUM): New tactical maps from Russian airborne sources indicate continued pressure in the Kupyansk direction. (Note: Corroborated by earlier SSO activity in the sector).
• ALLEGATIONS OF RADA COMPROMISE (1553Z, TASS/Strana, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Russian state media is amplifying reports that Ukrainian MPs are "non-publicly" discussing a full withdrawal from Donbas. This is highly likely a psychological operation (PSYOPS) designed to coincide with strike activity.
• WAR CRIMES INDICTMENT (1554Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Ukrainian authorities have officially indicted a captured Russian soldier for taking a civilian hostage and threatening execution in the Kharkiv sector.

Operational picture (by sector)

Kyiv/Northern Sector: The capital is currently under a "multi-wave" UAV assault. The 1544Z detection of a new group from the south confirms that Russia is attempting to saturate air defenses following the morning's ISR mapping flight. The modification of Metro operations suggests the threat is expected to persist into the evening hours.

Kupyansk/Kharkiv Sector: Combat intensity remains high. Russian paratrooper units (VDV) have released updated tactical overlays indicating localized offensive actions. In the rear areas of the Kharkiv sector, law enforcement is finalizing cases against Russian personnel for crimes against civilians, indicating that liberated or contested zones remain subject to high-friction stabilization efforts.

Zaporizhzhia Sector: The situation is characterized by high-volume "terror shelling" of civilian infrastructure. With 20 individuals currently hospitalized, the medical infrastructure is under strain. The persistent rocket threat (1556Z) suggests that while UAVs are focused on Kyiv, the south remains the primary target for ballistic or stand-off missile systems.

Donetsk Sector: No significant change since the 1531Z update regarding Orikhovo-Vasylivka. However, the Russian MoD (1532Z) is emphasizing the "efficiency" of its UAV-linked artillery fire, suggesting a focus on attritional fire superiority to facilitate ground advances.

Enemy activity / threat assessment (IPB Step 2)

• Capabilities/COA: The Russian MoD is explicitly highlighting the integration of UAVs with artillery (1532Z). This "reconnaissance-fire complex" adaptation is being used to compensate for lack of mechanized breakthrough capability.
• Internal Security/Legal: The Kremlin is intensifying domestic repression, listing entrepreneurs (e.g., Kunis) as "terrorists" (1544Z). This suggests a widening net of "internal enemies" to maintain domestic control as the "City-Kill" doctrine scales up.
• Hybrid Operations: Use of Italian (Salvini) and Hungarian (Orbán) political figures to call for "peace" or "compromise" (1546Z) serves to bracket kinetic strikes with diplomatic pressure.

Friendly activity (UAF) (IPB Step 3)

• Air Defense: Successfully managing a tiered defense over Kyiv, though Russian sources claim "failure" (1533Z) to incite panic.
• Legal/Justice: The SBU/Prosecutor General’s office is maintaining a high tempo of documenting war crimes (1554Z), serving both domestic morale and international legal requirements.
• Force Posture: Sustaining the Seversk-Bakhmut line despite intense pressure; tactical reserves in the Kupyansk sector are likely being engaged to counter VDV movements.

Information environment / disinformation (IPB Step 4)

• Donbas Withdrawal Narrative: The claim by Strana and TASS (1553Z) regarding MP readiness to abandon Donbas is a HIGH PRIORITY DISINFORMATION THREAT. It aims to create a perception of political collapse in Kyiv while the military situation remains contested but stable.
• Leadership Delegation: Reports regarding the Abu Dhabi talks (1535Z-1539Z) are being framed by Russia as Zelensky "yielding" to future US administration pressure (Trump). This is a narrative intended to weaken European confidence in Ukrainian resolve.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV saturation of Kyiv through the night. Possible transition to ballistic missile strikes on energy nodes in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro.
• MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A breakthrough in the Seversk-Kupyansk axis if VDV units can successfully exploit the UAV-Artillery synchronization mentioned in MoD reports (1532Z).

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [URGENT] Confirmation of Air Defense interception rates for the 1544Z UAV wave to assess depletion levels.
2. [HIGH] Detailed BDA from the Zaporizhzhia strikes to determine if energy or logistics hubs were hit alongside civilian areas.
3. [MEDIUM] Tracking the movements of the 1532nd AA Regiment (reported in daily intel) to see if they have moved to cover the Kupyansk-sector logistics.

//REPORT ENDS//