KINETIC ESCALATION OVER KYIV (1505Z-1527Z, Air Force ZSU/RBK-UA, HIGH): Multiple UAVs are currently approaching Kyiv from the south. This follows the 240-minute ISR mapping flight reported earlier. Air alerts have triggered changes to the Kyiv Metro "Red Line" operations.
EMERGENCY POWER SHUTOFFS (1515Z, RBK-UA/DTEK, HIGH): Emergency outages have been implemented in the Brovary and Boryspil districts of Kyiv Oblast. This likely indicates either pre-emptive load shedding ahead of an expected strike or localized damage to the grid.
"CITY-KILL" STRIKE ON KHERSON CHPP (1522Z, Tsaplienko/Naftogaz, HIGH): Confirmation that Russian forces are using a combination of tube artillery and drones to systematically target the Kherson Combined Heat and Power Plant (CHPP).
CONTESTED STATUS OF ORIKHOVO-VASYLIVKA (1531Z, RBK-UA, MEDIUM): UAF officially denied Russian claims regarding the occupation of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (Donetsk sector). Heavy fighting is ongoing; the settlement remains a critical buffer for the Seversk salient.
KADYROVITE ACTIVITY IN KHARKIV (1501Z, Kadyrov_95, LOW): Claims of "success" and drone operations in the Volchanskie Khutory area. (UNCONFIRMED/LOW confidence due to lack of geolocated corroboration).
EVIDENCE OF SYSTEMIC ABUSE IN RU FORCES (1505Z-1510Z, Sternenko/Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): Visual evidence emerging of severe physical torture and coercion of Russian soldiers who refuse to participate in "meat-grinder" assaults.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv/Northern Sector:
The situation has transitioned from reconnaissance to an active strike phase. The Air Force has confirmed UAVs entering the capital's approach from the south (1527Z). The implementation of emergency power shutoffs in the surrounding districts (Brovary/Boryspil) suggests the Russian "City-Kill" doctrine is now being applied to the capital’s energy periphery.
Donetsk Sector (Seversk & Pokrovsk):
Seversk Salient: The denial of Orikhovo-Vasylivka’s fall (1531Z) is significant. If the UAF maintains control here, the Russian attempt to "squeeze" the salient from the south is stalled. However, the high intensity of combat indicates this is a primary Russian objective for the next 24 hours.
Pokrovsk: No new messages since the last report, but previous data indicated high-tempo attritional drone warfare by the "SKELA" unit.
Southern Sector (Kherson):
The targeting of the CHPP (1522Z) confirms the strategic intent to weaponize the winter elements by de-energizing and de-heating civilian centers. This matches the tactical withdrawal from Alekseevsky Island reported earlier, as Russia shifts from holding difficult terrain to stand-off destruction of infrastructure.
Kharkiv Sector:
Renewed activity reported near Volchanskie Khutory (1501Z). The use of Kadyrovite units suggests a focus on unconventional or drone-heavy harassment rather than a large-scale mechanized breakthrough at this time.
Enemy activity / threat assessment (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities/COA: Russia is executing a multi-domain "mapping-to-strike" cycle. The long-duration ISR flight over Kyiv has likely provided a targeting package for the current UAV wave (1527Z).
Tactical Adaptation: The use of extreme coercion/torture to maintain assault discipline (1505Z) indicates severe internal friction and potentially high casualty rates that are straining the Russian contract/mobilized force's willingness to engage.
Logistics: Russia continues to leverage its energy sector for long-term sustainment, with the first LNG shipment of 2026 departing for China (1514Z), providing critical hard currency for the war economy.
Friendly activity (UAF) (IPB Step 3)
Defensive Posture: UAF Air Defense is currently engaged over the Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions. The SBU has publicized its successes on the "cyber front" (1520Z), highlighting the ongoing invisible war against Russian infrastructure hacking.
Information Operations: UAF is actively debunking Russian "Z-blogger" territorial claims (Orikhovo-Vasylivka) to maintain domestic and international confidence in the stability of the Seversk-Bakhmut line.
Information environment / disinformation (IPB Step 4)
Diplomatic Shaping: Kremlin Spokesman Peskov is signaling a willingness for "expert-level" talks with DC and Kyiv (1512Z). This is likely a "maskirovka" (deception) effort to project a desire for de-escalation while simultaneously launching drone strikes on the capital.
External Pressure: Hungarian PM Orbán’s calls for European farmers to unite against Ukrainian imports (1514Z) continue to provide Russia with a narrative lever to exploit cracks in EU/NATO solidarity.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV strikes on Kyiv targeting energy substations in the Brovary/Boryspil districts to expand the "blackout" zone.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A combined UAV/Missile "saturation strike" on Kyiv, utilizing the gaps identified by the 1503Z ISR flight to bypass SHORAD and hit the city's central heat/power hubs.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Immediate BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the Kherson CHPP; determine if the plant is still operational or if civilian heating is compromised.
[HIGH] Visual confirmation of the frontline in Orikhovo-Vasylivka to verify the UAF denial of its capture.
[MEDIUM] Identification of the specific Russian units involved in the torture of refuseniks; evaluate if this indicates a wider breakdown in 1st/2nd Echelon discipline.
