UAF SSO SUCCESS: KUPYANSK (0936Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH): The 8th Regiment of the Special Operations Forces (SSO) conducted a systematic clearing operation in central Kupyansk. Forces neutralized a Russian strongpoint in a destroyed supermarket and adjacent residential building, resulting in 2 enemy KIA and 2 POWs.
SBU COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE SUCCESS (0935Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): SBU Military Counterintelligence apprehended a Russian "mole" within the Ukrainian Air Defense (PPO) units. The individual was providing targeting coordinates for Ukrainian airfields, directly facilitating recent Russian precision strikes.
RUSSIAN REAR STRIKE: Kirovohrad (0939Z, TASS/RU MoD, MEDIUM): Russian forces claim to have destroyed UAF Mi-24 and Mi-8 helicopters west of Kanatovo Airfield using "Geran" (Shahed) UAVs. Thermal footage suggests a successful strike, though the operational status of the airframes prior to the strike is UNCONFIRMED.
EXPANDED AERIAL THREAT: ZAPORIZHZHIA (1000Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Shahed-type UAVs have been detected moving toward Vilniansk and Komyshuvakha, expanding the threat radius beyond the regional center mentioned in the 0930Z report.
EU SANCTIONS ENFORCEMENT (0935Z, TASS, HIGH): The EU Council has stipulated that companies violating the 2027 Russian gas import ban will face fines of up to 300% of the contract value, signaling a robust legal framework for the energy decoupling.
DIPLOMATIC SIGNALING (0958Z, Tsaplienko/Peskov, MEDIUM): Kremlin spokesperson Peskov indicated that trilateral contacts between Russia, the US, and Ukraine are planned for next week, though no date is finalized. This follows previous reports of "negotiation by fire" tactics.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kupiansk Sector: Urban warfare is intensifying in the city center. The 8th Regiment SSO's clearing of commercial infrastructure (supermarket) confirms that Russian forces are attempting to use reinforced concrete structures as temporary strongpoints. UAF remains in tactical control of central transit nodes.
Zaporizhzhia Sector: The threat has migrated NW from the regional center toward Vilniansk. This suggests a multi-axis drone approach designed to bypass established AA corridors around Zaporizhzhia city.
Kirovohrad/Rear Area: The strike near Kanatovo indicates a Russian shift toward using "Geran" loitering munitions for precision SEAD/DEAD (Suppression/Destruction of Enemy Air Defense) and asset-specific targeting in the deep rear, likely guided by the recently neutralized "mole."
Donetsk Sector (Pokrovsk/South): Russian "Sparta" battalion FPV drone units are active near Novooleksandrivka and Pryvitne, targeting Ukrainian BRDM-2 and "Gvozdika" assets (0959Z). This indicates high-intensity FPV friction along the primary lines of contact.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: Russian 14th Spetsnaz (Vostok Group) is prioritizing Counter-UAS operations against Ukrainian heavy hexacopters (e.g., "Baba Yaga" / "Mangas") in the 5th and 36th Army sectors (0933Z). This is a direct response to high Russian armor losses from night-time drone drops.
Strategic Intent: The continued emphasis on "Geran" strikes against airfields suggests an intent to ground the Ukrainian Air Force ahead of any potential diplomatic summits, seeking to reduce UAF's "negotiation from strength" position.
C2/Logistics: In the RU rear, a major power outage in Murmansk/Severomorsk (0956Z) may impact Northern Fleet logistics or administrative support, though it is currently attributed to a technical accident rather than kinetic action.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Espionage: The arrest of the Air Defense informant is a critical win for operational security. This likely explains the recent increase in Russian success rates against airfields and suggests a need for an immediate audit of all PPO personnel with access to sensitive coordinates.
Force Posture: SSO units are maintaining high tempo in urban environments (Kupyansk), prioritizing the capture of POWs for intelligence exploitation.
Information environment / disinformation
Economic Destabilization: Russian channels are amplifying reports of the Euro exceeding 51 UAH (0956Z) and the cessation of social aid for Ukrainians abroad (0937Z) to foster domestic resentment and "refugee fatigue."
Strategic Distraction: TASS continues to push the "Trump/Greenland" narrative (0934Z) to dominate the international news cycle and dilute the impact of the EU's 300% sanction fines.
Russian Internal Instability: Reports of record bankruptcies in Russia (568k in 2025) are surfacing in semi-independent channels (0950Z), providing a counter-narrative to Russian state claims of economic resilience.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued Shahed and KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Kirovohrad. Expected increase in Russian FPV activity in the Novooleksandrivka area to exploit recent armor kills.
MDCOA: Utilizing the intelligence gathered by the recently captured "mole" before UAF can reposition assets, Russia may launch a snap cruise missile strike on identified "dead zones" in the Air Defense network.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Conduct immediate Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) at Kanatovo Airfield. Determine if the struck airframes were operational or decoys.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the movement of the 14th Spetsnaz C-UAS units to identify if new electronic warfare (EW) systems are being deployed to the Vostok Group's AO.
[LOW] Verify the validity of the "trilateral contact" claims (0958Z) via Western diplomatic channels to determine if this is a genuine shift or a delay tactic.
