UAF DIRECT ACTION: KUPYANSK (0907Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Ukrainian Special Forces executed a high-intensity raid against entrenched Russian positions within Kupyansk city limits. This indicates UAF remains capable of offensive tactical maneuvers despite earlier reports of SSO clearing actions.
UKRAINIAN DEEP STRIKE: LUHANSK ENERGY (0908Z, Mash na Donbasse/ASTRA, HIGH): Ten Ukrainian drones successfully targeted energy infrastructure in occupied Luhansk. Repairs are currently halted due to persistent "drone danger," confirming a successful disruption of the occupation's rear-area power grid.
STRATEGIC ENERGY SANCTIONS (0923Z, TASS/Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH): The EU Council has officially approved a total ban on Russian LNG (effective Jan 1, 2027) and pipeline gas (effective Sept 30, 2027). This represents a definitive long-term decoupling of European energy from Russian supply.
AERIAL THREAT: ZAPORIZHZHIA (0923Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched KAB glide bombs targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast, accompanied by a wave of Shahed-type UAVs moving toward the regional center (0930Z).
BALLISTIC ALERT: EASTERN UKRAINE (0927Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Threat of ballistic missile employment from the east. This follows earlier alerts for Kharkiv and Poltava, suggesting a sustained multi-vector aerial assault.
DONETSK FRICTION: TORETSK/DOBROPILSKY SALIENT (0909Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM): Heavy fighting continues in the Dobropilsky salient. Russian sources report significant logistical and defensive challenges despite claimed tactical progress, indicating high attrition.
UNCONFIRMED PRISONER CLAIM (0925Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian sources claim six "Azov" personnel surrendered near Dymytrov (Pokrovsk sector). This is currently uncorroborated by independent or Ukrainian sources and is assessed as potential propaganda.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kupiansk Sector: The sector has shifted from SSO "clearing" to direct action raids. The UAF raid in Kupyansk (0907Z) suggests Russian forces may have attempted to establish strongpoints in commercial infrastructure (ATB), which are being systematically reduced by Ukrainian special units.
Donetsk Sector (Pokrovsk/Toretsk): The "Dobropilsky salient" remains the primary kinetic focus. While Russia is demining near Pokrovsk (confirmed 0901Z), they face "logistical challenges" near Toretsk (0909Z). The front is highly fluid; Russian attempts to consolidate "liberated" zones are being met with active resistance.
Zaporizhzhia Sector: Emerging as a high-threat zone. New positional fighting reported near Zahorne (NE of Huliaipole) (0904Z) combined with heavy KAB and UAV pressure (0923Z) suggests a Russian effort to fix Ukrainian reserves in the south.
Northern Border / Kharkiv: UAF Air Defense successfully intercepted a drone over Kharkiv city (0924Z), but the threat of ballistic and KAB strikes remains constant.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: Russia is increasingly reliant on KAB glide bombs to compensate for ground friction in the Toretsk/Zaporizhzhia sectors.
Strategic Target: Russian MoD confirmed a 24-hour focus on striking "energy infrastructure used for UAF interests" (0913Z). This correlates with the increased costs seen in Kyiv's civilian sector (generator fees) (0911Z).
Logistics: Severe winter weather in Moscow (up to 15cm snow forecast, 0909Z) may impact the Russian Ministry of Defense's administrative C2 and the movement of equipment from central hubs to the staging areas over the next 48-72 hours.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Capability: The drone attack on Luhansk (0908Z) demonstrates UAF's continued ability to penetrate dense AD environments to strike high-value energy targets in the "LNR" rear.
Tactical Initiative: Special Forces raids in Kupyansk highlight a refusal to concede urban terrain even in sectors where Russia claims to be consolidating.
Air Defense: Continued efficiency in intercepting UAVs over Kharkiv city center (0924Z), though ballistic threats remain a high-risk gap.
Information environment / disinformation
Economic Pressure Narratives: Russian channels are amplifying the "generator fee" story in Kyiv (0911Z) to project an image of Ukrainian economic collapse and civilian exhaustion.
External Distraction: Pro-Russian sources are disseminating Reuters reports regarding "Trump's Greenland seizure" plans (0930Z). This is assessed as an information operation to divert attention from the EU's decisive energy ban.
Legal Accountability: Ukrainian Prosecutor's Office is highlighting domestic police misconduct (0930Z), maintaining transparency to preserve public trust despite the war footing.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued KAB and Shahed strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. Russia will attempt to stabilize the Dobropilsky salient while UAF continues FPV/UAV harassment of Luhansk energy nodes.
MDCOA: A coordinated ballistic/cruise missile wave (predicted in previous daily report) utilizing the reload window at Depot 59.97 to target the national grid during the current ballistic alert.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Identify the specific units involved in the Luhansk energy strike to determine if this marks the deployment of new long-range drone variants.
[HIGH] Verify Russian claims of UAF surrenders near Dymytrov (0925Z). Assess if this indicates a localized collapse or is a fabricated narrative to counter the news of the SF raid in Kupyansk.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the impact of the EU energy ban on Russian domestic sentiment via social sentiment analysis of signal units and contractors.
