ACTIVE AERIAL THREAT - MYKOLAIV (1713Z, Air Force UA, HIGH): Missile danger declared for the Mykolaiv district; residents directed to shelters.
URBAN UAV THREAT - SUMY (1720Z, Air Force UA, HIGH): Enemy Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) confirmed operating directly over Sumy city, likely for reconnaissance or target acquisition following recent grid strikes.
PRECISION ATTRITION - BEREZOVE SECTOR (1719Z, DeepState, HIGH): The Ukrainian 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade ("Iron Falcons") successfully targeted Russian personnel and light unarmored vehicles (LAT) near Berezove using drone-dropped munitions.
ARMOR DESTRUCTION (1704Z/1719Z, 46 oAEMBR/ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): 46th Separate Air Assault Brigade confirmed the destruction of a Russian "turtle tank" (tank-saray) and associated motor vehicles in recent engagements.
STRATEGIC TRILATERAL ALIGNMENT (1723Z, Zelenskiy / Official, HIGH): President Zelenskyy concluded a high-level meeting with leaders of Lithuania and Poland, notably including representatives of "Free Belarus," signaling a hardening of the regional security bloc.
RUSSIAN COUNTER-ATTACK CLAIMS (1703Z, Операция Z, LOW): Russian "Center" Group claims to have destroyed UAF infantry and equipment during counter-attacks in the Pokrovsk and Dnipropetrovsk directions. (UNCONFIRMED).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment remains defined by high-intensity attrition and a shift toward deep-strike signaling. While the frontline is characterized by static urban/trench warfare, the aerial domain is increasingly active.
Battlefield Geometry: Russian forces are attempting to maintain momentum in the Pokrovsk and Vovchansk sectors. The presence of a UAV over Sumy suggests Russia is assessing the damage of previous energy strikes or preparing for a follow-up wave.
Weather/Environment: Winter conditions (snow/wooded terrain) are facilitating the use of thermal imaging on drones, as evidenced by successful UAF strikes on personnel (1721Z).
Control Measures: UAF continues to leverage decentralized drone units (67th, 46th Bdes) to disrupt Russian tactical logistics ("Bukhanka" vans and "turtle tanks").
Diversified Drone Targets: Russian forces are focusing on Pokrovsk and Dnipropetrovsk (1703Z), attempting to broaden the front to include regional borders.
Electronic Warfare (EW) Gaps: Successful Ukrainian drone footage (Бутусов Плюс, 1721Z) showing Russian infantry attempting to shoot down drones with small arms suggests localized failures or absences of mobile EW protection for "soft-skin" transport vehicles.
Logistics Hardening: The continued use of "turtle tanks" (tank-saray) indicates a persistent Russian adaptation to UAF FPV drone dominance, despite the 46th Brigade’s success in neutralizing them (1719Z).
Strategic Intent:
MLCOA: Continued reconnaissance-in-force using UAVs over Sumy and Kharkiv to identify gaps in the reconstructed power grid for a 6-12 hour strike window.
MDCOA: Expansion of missile strikes into the Mykolaiv/Odesa corridor to interdict maritime or riverine logistics while UAF is focused on the northern/eastern sectors.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking) (IPB Step 3)
Posture & Readiness:
Sustainment Needs: Operational units are actively requesting power stabilization equipment (EcoFlow/Generators) (1726Z), indicating that while the grid is under repair, tactical units remain vulnerable to energy instability.
High-End Capability: The 67th and 46th Brigades demonstrate high proficiency in "snow-environment" drone operations, maintaining high attrition rates against Russian armored "breakthrough" attempts.
Diplomatic Posture:
The inclusion of the Belarusian opposition in the Lithuania-Poland-Ukraine talks (1723Z) suggests a shift toward a more aggressive regional stance against the Lukashenko regime's support for Moscow, potentially opening a secondary psychological front for the Kremlin.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain) (IPB Step 4)
Russian Deterrence Narrative: Deputy FM Ryabkov’s statements via TASS (1720Z) claiming "100% security" and dismissing US technological threats are designed to project stability amid reports of Ukrainian strikes on Belgorod and Western aid arrivals.
Targeted Disinformation: Pro-Russian channels (Поддубный, 1720Z) are aggressively linking civilian suffering (cold/lack of power) directly to Zelenskyy’s presidency, seeking to trigger internal political instability during the peak of winter.
International Pressure: Reports of the US deporting Russian nationals (1715Z) are being used in the Ukrainian information space to signal a hardening of Western domestic policies toward the Russian Federation.
High Probability: Missile or Shahed-series UAV strikes on the Mykolaiv district and Sumy energy nodes.
Medium Probability: Russian "Sever" group will attempt a localized push in the Burluk direction (near Vovchansk) as signaled by Rybar (1719Z).
Decision Points: If the UAV over Sumy identifies newly installed transformers or repair crews, an immediate kinetic strike should be anticipated.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[URGENT] Confirm if the missile threat in Mykolaiv (1713Z) resulted in impacts on port infrastructure or grain silos.
[HIGH] Identify the specific variant of the Russian UAV over Sumy. Is it a reconnaissance-only Orlan-10 or a strike-capable Orion/Inokhodets?
[MEDIUM] Corroborate Russian claims of combat in the Dnipropetrovsk border region. If true, this represents a significant westward expansion of the ground combat zone.
