ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE COUNTER-STRIKE (1700Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): Visual evidence confirms a major Ukrainian missile strike on the Belgorod Thermal Power Plant (TEC) conducted within the last 24 hours, signaling a transition to reciprocal energy warfare.
KINETIC STRIKE ON KHARKIV RESIDENTIAL (1655Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО/Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): Confirmed Russian drone strike on a residential high-rise building in Kharkiv; multiple videos corroborate direct impact.
DEEP REAR STRIKE IN WESTERN UKRAINE (1657Z, Дневник Десантника, MEDIUM): Russian sources claim a "precision strike" on a key logistics hub in Chernivtsi. If confirmed, this marks an expansion of the target set to the far west.
US-UA SECURITY AGREEMENT FINALIZED (1633Z, Операция Z, HIGH): Verification from both sides that the bilateral security guarantees document is ready for signature, formalizing long-term US support.
BALLISTIC THREAT RECAP (1643Z-1655Z, Air Force UA, MEDIUM): A short-duration ballistic missile threat was declared and subsequently cleared for Zaporizhzhia and central regions.
STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY IN ABU DHABI (1645Z, ТАСС, HIGH): Russian investment and diplomatic officials (Dmitriev) met with UAE leadership, likely countering the Ukrainian "20-point plan" negotiations.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The conflict has entered a "tit-for-tat" infrastructure attrition phase. Following the degradation of the Ukrainian grid (previous report), UAF has successfully targeted the Belgorod TPP, demonstrating a shift toward symmetrical pressure on Russian domestic energy stability.
Battlefield Geometry: Frontlines remain static, but the depth of the operational area has expanded with reported strikes in Chernivtsi (West) and Belgorod (RU-Rear).
Critical Infrastructure: The "Energy War" is now multi-domain. Ukraine is leveraging long-range assets to create domestic political pressure within the Russian Federation by targeting power generation.
Weather/Environment: Cold temperatures continue to make energy infrastructure the highest-priority tactical and strategic target.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Tactical Observations:
Drone Terror Tactics: The direct strike on a Kharkiv high-rise (1655Z) suggests a continued Russian policy of "terror-fixation" to demoralize the civilian population and force the diversion of Air Defense (AD) assets from the front to urban centers.
Logistical Sustainment: Russian repair platoons are documented conducting heavy maintenance on D-30 122mm howitzers (1637Z), indicating a reliance on legacy Soviet artillery to maintain fire volume despite modern attrition.
Recruitment Shifts: Russian units (specifically those involved in the Sudzha/Kursk sector) are actively recruiting, likely to replace high losses sustained during Ukrainian counter-incursions (1647Z).
Strategic Intent:
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Continued "City-Kill" drone swarms against Kharkiv and Sumy to exacerbate the effects of the nationwide power restrictions starting 26 Jan.
Interdiction: Targeting Western Ukrainian hubs (Chernivtsi) to disrupt the flow of newly arrived Western materiel (e.g., French EOS drones).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Posture & Readiness:
Symmetrical Response: The strike on Belgorod TPP indicates UAF Command is no longer observing a policy of restraint regarding Russian energy infrastructure in response to strikes on Kyiv and Sumy.
Diplomatic Leverage: President Zelenskyy’s confirmation of the US security deal (1633Z) and the refusal to discuss territorial concessions (1638Z) indicates high political resolve despite the energy crisis.
Tactical Successes:
AD Early Warning: Effective detection of ballistic threats and UAV movements toward Kharkiv allowed for timely civilian warnings, potentially mitigating casualties during the high-rise strike.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Russian Distraction Narrative: Significant amplification by Russian "MilBloggers" (Rybar, 1638Z) regarding potential US strikes on Iran. This is likely a coordinated effort to project a narrative of global overextension by NATO/US.
Zelenskyy Characterization: Russian state media (Kotsnews, 1636Z) is aggressively framing the Ukrainian refusal to withdraw from the Kursk region as "anti-peace," attempting to paint Kyiv as the primary obstacle to the Abu Dhabi negotiations.
Internal Russian Control: The Russian Ministry of Education's proposal to block educational aid websites (1655Z) suggests a tightening of internal information controls and domestic digital sovereignty.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
MLCOA (Next 6-12h): Russian forces will likely launch a retaliatory missile wave specifically targeting Ukrainian energy repair facilities in response to the Belgorod TPP strike. This will aim to prevent the stabilization of the grid before the 26 Jan blackout schedule takes effect.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): A massed ballistic strike on the Odesa or Lviv transit hubs, coordinated with Shahed swarms, to permanently sever the western logistics "lifeline" while UAF AD is occupied with city-defense.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[URGENT] Verify the extent of damage to the Belgorod TPP. Assess if the strike resulted in a total grid failure for the Belgorod region.
[HIGH] Confirm the nature of the strike in Chernivtsi. Was it a missile (Kalibr/Kh-101) or a long-range drone? Determine if Western aid shipments were affected.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for RU-106th Airborne movement. Previous reports indicated a recruitment drive; identify if these units are being staged for a counter-push in the Sudzha/Kursk salient.
