US-UA SECURITY AGREEMENT FINALIZED (1606Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): President Zelenskyy confirmed the bilateral security guarantees document with the United States is "100% ready." Signing is pending finalization of date and location by US officials.
NATIONWIDE POWER RESTRICTIONS (1615Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): "Ukrenergo" has announced mandatory hourly blackout schedules and industrial power limitations for all regions of Ukraine starting tomorrow, 26 Jan.
LONG-RANGE STRIKE CAPABILITY UPGRADE (1614Z, ТАСС/AFP, HIGH): French firm EOS Technologie has reportedly delivered kamikaze drones with a 500km range to the UAF, significantly extending the reach for deep-rear interdiction.
DIPLOMATIC PROGRESS IN ABU DHABI (1631Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): Negotiations on the "20-point peace plan" concluded with Zelenskyy reporting a decrease in "problematic issues," though territorial concessions remain a non-starter.
VUCIC EU ACCESSION CLAIMS (1603Z, Операция Z, LOW): Serbian President Vučić claims Ukraine is demanding EU accession by 1 January 2027 as a prerequisite for a peace deal. (UNCONFIRMED/POTENTIAL DISINFORMATION).
The operational environment is currently dominated by a strategic pause in major ground maneuvers, offset by intense diplomatic signaling and a deepening energy crisis.
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline remains static but high-attrition. Russian forces in the Vostok Group AO (South/Donetsk) are maintaining high-intensity pressure (1620Z).
Critical Infrastructure: The energy sector is reaching a tipping point. The announcement of nationwide blackouts for 26 Jan (1615Z) follows the "city-kill" strikes on Kyiv and Sumy energy nodes noted in previous reports.
Rear Operations: Introduction of 500km-range French loitering munitions provides Ukraine with a credible counter-value threat against Russian energy and logistics hubs (e.g., Depot 59.97).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Tactical Observations:
Infantry Attrition: Russian small-unit tactics continue to suffer from extreme vulnerability to FPV drones. Visual evidence confirms a single Russian soldier being targeted by four FPVs and two drops, indicating a "precision-kill" doctrine by UAF to offset Russian manpower advantages (1632Z).
Vostok Group Activity: Sustained combat operations in the Vostok AO suggest an attempt to fix Ukrainian reserves in the south to prevent their deployment to the Kharkiv/Sumy sectors.
Strategic Intent:
Energy Warfare: The transition to nationwide blackouts indicates Russian strikes have successfully degraded the grid's elasticity.
Hybrid Negotiation: Use of third-party actors (Vučić) to leak "Ukrainian demands" (1603Z) is likely a Kremlin-directed move to frame Ukrainian peace terms as "unrealistic" to Western audiences.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Posture & Readiness:
Strategic Resilience: The finalization of the US security document (1606Z) provides a significant morale boost and a long-term framework for sustainment.
Territorial Integrity: Zelenskyy re-iterated that the Ukrainian position on territory remains "unchanged" despite pressure in Abu Dhabi (1612Z, 1615Z).
New Capabilities:
Long-Range Interdiction: The acquisition of EOS Technologie kamikaze drones (500km range) enables UAF to strike targets deep within the Russian Federation, potentially targeting the Olya-Makhachkala-Astrakhan logistics pipeline or Moscow-region energy hubs.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Russian Visual Ops: A video circulating of a "Ukrainian recon group" (1613Z) examining a downed drone contains internal contradictions. It is likely staged or uses mislabeled archival footage to project a sense of tactical dominance over UAF ISR assets. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM (PROBABLE FAKE).
Diplomatic Narrative: Russian channels are amplifying Vučić’s claims regarding 2027 EU accession to paint Kyiv as desperate for a "political win" over a "military reality."
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
In the next 6-12 hours, Russian forces will likely launch a new wave of Shahed-type UAVs to coincide with the start of the nationwide blackouts, aimed at further destabilizing the grid before repair crews can capitalize on the 26 Jan power schedules.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
Utilizing the reload cycle at Depot 59.97 (identified in previous report), Russia conducts a synchronized cruise missile and ballistic strike against UAF tactical aviation hubs to preempt the deployment of new French long-range drone assets.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[CRITICAL] Determine the basing locations for the newly arrived French EOS drones to assess their immediate strike radius.
[HIGH] Confirm the current status of "Depot 59.97." Has the reload cycle resulted in active transport of Kalibr/Iskander missiles to launch platforms?
[MEDIUM] Monitor Serbian and Hungarian diplomatic channels for further leaks regarding the Abu Dhabi "20-point plan" to identify potential "problematic issues" that were allegedly resolved.
