MECHANIZED COLUMN INTERDICTION (1406Z, DShV, HIGH): Ukrainian Air Assault Forces (DShV) successfully destroyed a Russian mechanized column using a combination of artillery and mortars before it reached its objective.
TACTICAL SHIFT TOWARD KOSTIANTYNIVKA (1429Z, Rybar, MEDIUM): The Russian "Yug" (South) grouping has begun a northward maneuver toward Kostiantynivka; spatial data suggests a concerted effort to broaden the salient.
ZAPORIZHZHIA FPV SUCCESS (1401Z, 65th OMBr/Sternenko, HIGH): The "Ronins" drone unit of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade conducted high-efficiency FPV strikes on Russian assets in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKES (1411Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, HIGH): Confirmed series of strikes on energy facilities in Ukrainian-controlled areas of the Donetsk region, aligning with the "negotiation by fire" strategy.
UAV PENETRATION (1408Z, 1430Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Multiple Shahed-type UAVs detected transiting toward Myrhorod and Hohovele (Poltava region) and entering Zaporizhzhia from the south.
KAB SURGE (1422Z, 1423Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) launched against eastern Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia (cross-sector launch from Donetsk).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy/Poltava)
Kharkiv: The city is under renewed drone attack (1421Z). KAB launches are specifically targeting the eastern districts of the Kharkiv region (1422Z), likely aiming to disrupt tactical reserves moving toward the border.
Poltava: Loitering munitions are active over Myrhorod and Hohovele (1408Z), suggesting an attempt to strike aviation-related infrastructure or logistics hubs.
2. Donbas Sector (Kostiantynivka/Pokrovsk)
Kostiantynivka Axis: The "Yug" grouping's northward movement (1429Z) indicates a tactical priority to threaten Kostiantynivka from the south. This follows previous reports of FAB-3000 usage in the area.
Infrastructure: Systemic strikes on energy objects in this sector (1411Z) are likely intended to degrade the sustainment capability of UAF units defending the Kostiantynivka-Pokrovsk line.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia)
Frontline: UAF 65th OMBr is maintaining high lethality with FPV drones (1401Z).
Threat: The sector faces a multi-vector threat with KABs being launched from Donetsk-based RU aviation (1423Z) and UAVs entering from the south (occupied Melitopol/Crimea axis) (1430Z).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Tactical Maneuvers: Russia is increasingly utilizing cross-sector support, such as launching KABs from Donetsk to hit Zaporizhzhia targets. This indicates a high level of air-ground coordination and flexibility in tactical aviation employment.
Institutional Friction: Internal Russian reporting (Rybar, 1413Z) highlights a growing rift between combat-experienced officers and the military education system, which is failing to adapt to the drone-saturated environment.
Legal Repression: In occupied Melitopol, the 14-year sentence given to a 64-year-old hospital guard for sharing patient data (1413Z) indicates a tightening of rear-area security and an intensified crackdown on perceived Ukrainian collaborators.
2. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Force Readiness: The DShV and 65th OMBr demonstrate high readiness and effective use of ISR-linked strike assets (artillery/drones). The interdiction of a Russian column before it reached the line of contact (1406Z) suggests improved real-time intelligence and fire mission responsiveness.
Strategic Posture: President Zelenskyy’s latest rhetoric (1413Z) identifies Moscow and St. Petersburg as the primary centers of gravity, signaling a shift toward emphasizing the "imperial" nature of the threat to maintain Western support.
3. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Distraction Narratives: Russian state media and pro-RU channels are flooding the space with non-war news to dilute reporting on civilian casualties:
Civil unrest in Minneapolis (1429Z) and an industrial accident in Alaska (1426Z) are being framed as "US instability."
Claims of "slave markets" in Syria (1428Z) are used to delegitimize Western-backed shifts in the Middle East.
Satirical proposals for "Cheburlyandia" (1420Z) serve as domestic morale-boosters/distractions.
Diplomatic Maneuvering: The TASS report (1431Z) regarding an invitation to Donald Trump to visit Russia is a clear attempt to bypass current Ukrainian diplomatic efforts and signal a potential bilateral shift in negotiations.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU forces will continue the "Negotiation by Fire" into the night, focusing on energy infrastructure in the Donbas and civilian-industrial hubs in Kharkiv. The "Yug" grouping will likely attempt to fix UAF forces south of Kostiantynivka to prevent reinforcement of other sectors.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated multi-vector strike involving the "Oreshnik" platform (mentioned in Zelenskyy's warnings) from Belarus or RU territory, aimed at high-value command and control or energy nodes to coincide with the reported "empty" status of Russian munition depots.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High Alert: Expect continued KAB and UAV activity across the Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv axes.
Tactical Development: Monitor the Kostiantynivka axis for a potential mechanized breakthrough attempt following the "Yug" group's northward shift.
Energy Sector: High probability of further strikes on regional power substations in the Donbas to accelerate grid degradation.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the exact composition and size of the Russian "Yug" group maneuver toward Kostiantynivka.
[HIGH] Assess the impact of the energy strikes in Donetsk; determine if this affects UAF localized command and control (C2).
[MEDIUM] Verify the status of the Russian mechanized column reportedly destroyed by DShV—specifically, are there surviving elements regrouping for a follow-up assault?
