WIDE-SCALE KAB DEPLOYMENT (1335Z-1341Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) across three distinct sectors: Northern Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk regions within a six-minute window.
CASUALTY CONFIRMATION (1333Z, Kharkiv ODA, HIGH): The civilian casualty from the Kyivskyi district high-rise strike in Kharkiv is confirmed as an 80-year-old female.
PEACEKEEPING FORCE DISCUSSIONS (1401Z, NYT/RBK-UA, MEDIUM): Reports indicate that US and Ukrainian officials in Abu Dhabi discussed the potential deployment of international peacekeeping forces specifically for the Donetsk region.
NEW MAN-PORTABLE TECH (1401Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Russian "Vostok" grouping has reportedly integrated "Mangas" hexacopters into active operations; DS belief scores (0.36) support this deployment as a primary tactical shift in the eastern sector.
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE LOSSES (1355Z, ASTRA/MWS, HIGH): An energy worker was injured in Mykolaiv and a rescue climber was killed in Kyiv during ongoing stabilization/response operations.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy/Poltava)
Kharkiv: Sustained pressure from KABs on the northern border areas. In the city, the 1314Z strike on a residential high-rise is confirmed to have targeted a location adjacent to a shopping center, suggesting a "terror-fixation" tactic to keep emergency services occupied.
Sumy/Poltava: Shahed-type UAVs are actively transiting from Western Kharkiv toward Poltava and entering Sumy from the north (1337Z, 1340Z). This indicates a multi-vector loitering munition flight path intended to bypass localized AD pockets.
2. Donbas Sector (Donetsk/Vostok Grouping)
Sector West/Vostok: The Russian "Vostok" grouping is demonstrating increased drone-heavy capabilities. The introduction of "Mangas" hexacopters (1401Z) suggests a move toward heavy-lift FPV or grenade-drop platforms to compensate for armor losses previously noted in Novopavlivka.
KAB Strikes: Simultaneous launches reported across Donetsk (1341Z) indicate no decrease in the "negotiation by fire" strategy despite ongoing diplomatic talks in Abu Dhabi.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Mykolaiv)
Zaporizhzhia: New KAB launches reported (1338Z). This sector is seeing a resurgence of tactical air activity after a period of relative stagnation.
Mykolaiv: Strike on energy infrastructure confirmed with one specialist injured (1355Z), consistent with the Kremlin's objective of degrading the grid during the current "critical two-week window."
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: Russia is maintaining high-tempo standoff strikes (KABs/UAVs) while exploring "alternative" diplomatic levers. The refusal of Peskov to engage with EU High Rep Kallas (1340Z) signals a Russian attempt to bilateralize negotiations with the US/Ukraine while sidelining Brussels.
Logistics & Personnel: A captured soldier from the 110th Brigade sector reports signing bonuses reaching 2.5 million RUB ($25,000 USD), indicating high desperation to maintain recruitment levels without a formal second wave of mobilization (1348Z).
Weaponry: Transition to fiber-optic FPVs (DS belief 0.002, though low, is rising) and heavy hexacopters (Mangas) indicates an adaptation to Ukrainian EW dominance.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Force Posture: The 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade remains effective in the Donetsk sector, confirmed by the successful capture and interrogation of enemy personnel (1348Z).
Diplomatic Maneuvering: President Zelenskyy’s address in Lithuania (1337Z) emphasizes a "total European defense" narrative, likely aimed at securing long-term commitments as a hedge against the Abu Dhabi talk outcomes.
Information environment / disinformation
Fear-Based Ops: Pro-RU channel Alex Parker Returns is circulating high-alarm reports regarding the "Nipah virus" in India as a threat to Russia (1344Z). This is assessed as a domestic-facing operation to support restrictive migration policies rather than a tactical military threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - DISINFORMATION).
Historical Revisionism: RU outlets are utilizing the anniversary of the film "Ordinary Fascism" to bridge Nazi Germany archival footage with modern Ukrainian leadership, a classic "denazification" narrative reboot (1342Z).
Distraction Tactics: Soft-power proposals like "Cheburlyandia" (Russian Disneyland) are being pushed to dilute reporting on civilian casualties in Kharkiv (1332Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued high-intensity KAB and UAV strikes on energy and residential hubs in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia through the night.
Environmental Hazard: A severe cold snap in the Moscow region (-28°C) may impact RU logistical throughput or drone battery performance in the northern border sectors (1356Z).
Tactical Shift: Expect increased usage of the "Mangas" hexacopters in the Vostok grouping's area of responsibility for night-time harassment.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Verify the NYT report on peacekeeping forces: Are these "parameters" being discussed as a demilitarized zone or a frozen front line?
[HIGH] Identify the specific technical specifications and payload of the "Mangas" hexacopter to develop EW countermeasures.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the Kyiv-Zhytomyr highway travel conditions for potential impact on western logistical flows (1334Z).
