SUSTAINED KAB STRIKES IN DONETSK (0333Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched a second wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the Donetsk region, maintaining the high tempo established earlier in the night.
DEEPENING UAV PENETRATION (0348Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): UAVs previously detected in northern Chernihiv have transitioned to the western part of the region, maintaining a southwest heading toward central Ukraine/Kyiv.
INCREASED RU ARTILLERY ACTIVITY (0335Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources report active artillery suppression of Ukrainian positions; while propaganda-heavy, this aligns with the kinetic preparation observed in the Donetsk sector.
EXTERNAL NARRATIVE SHIFT (0400Z, RBK-Ukraine, LOW): Ukrainian media is reporting on US domestic policy statements (Trump on drug cartels), potentially acting as a minor distraction from the deteriorating tactical situation in the north.
Operational picture (by sector)
Donbas Sector (Donetsk Axis):
Battlefield Geometry: The recurring KAB strikes (0307Z, 0333Z) confirm a sustained aerial preparation phase. This is likely focused on the Kostiantynivka-Novopavlivka line to disrupt Ukrainian reinforcements before the anticipated dawn mechanized assault.
Enemy Force Disposition: RU "Yug" group is leveraging superior aviation assets (FAB-3000 and KABs) to offset Ukrainian fortified positions.
Northern/Central Sector (Chernihiv & Kyiv):
Battlefield Geometry: The UAV vector has shifted from "West" to "South-West" (0348Z). This indicates the loitering munitions are likely bypassing primary northern intercept zones to approach the Kyiv metropolitan area or energy infrastructure in Zhytomyr/Vinnytsia from an oblique angle.
Control Measures: Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) in Chernihiv and Kyiv oblasts are likely on high alert to intercept before the UAVs enter the terminal engagement phase.
Dnipropetrovsk Sector:
Status: No new telemetry on the UAV tracked near Aviatorske at 0313Z. It is assessed as having either engaged its target or been neutralized by local EW/Air Defense.
Kharkiv Sector:
Status: Static since the fall of Staritsa. Expect RU "Sever" group to consolidate the tactical bulge created by the village's capture.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
1. Capabilities and Intentions:
Aviation Prep: The 26-minute interval between KAB launch reports (0307Z to 0333Z) suggests a high sortie rate from Voronezh Malshevo or similar forward airbases.
Logistics Alert: The "zeroed" activity score (0.00) at the main RU missile arsenal (59.97, 29.31) remains the primary strategic indicator. The current UAV and KAB activity is likely "shaping fire" to deplete Ukrainian AD interceptors ahead of a massed missile strike.
2. Courses of Action:
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): RU forces will launch mechanized daylight assaults in the Novopavlivka sector within the next 2-4 hours, supported by persistent artillery fire (corroborated by 0335Z reports).
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A synchronized massed missile strike targeting the energy grid, timed with the peak exhaustion of AD crews currently tracking the Chernihiv/Kyiv UAVs.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Force Posture: UAF units in the Lyman sector (Lazari unit) remain the most effective counter-armor element, but are under increasing pressure from RU indirect fire.
Air Defense: Focused on the "South-West" vector from Chernihiv. The lack of an "all-clear" for the northern regions suggests the threat remains active and maneuvering.
Information environment / disinformation
RU Propaganda: Russian mil-bloggers (Colonelcassad, Два майора) are pivoting toward "combat effectiveness" narratives (0335Z, 0359Z) to bolster morale following the capture of Staritsa and the ongoing bombardment.
Cognitive Domain: The reporting of US policy shifts regarding drug cartels (0400Z) in Ukrainian media during a kinetic peak is notable; it suggests a potential fragmentation of the domestic information space during high-stress periods.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Dawn Assaults (0400Z-0700Z): High-intensity ground activity in Donetsk is imminent. RU will likely use the "Kurier" robotic mortar platforms to provide fire support for mechanized columns.
UAV Impact (0430Z-0600Z): The Chernihiv UAVs will reach the Kyiv/Central Ukraine threshold. Expect air raid alerts to expand westward.
Missile Threat: The 48-hour window for a major strike remains open and highly probable.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm current status of the energy grid in the "Left Bank" of Kyiv following the 0310Z/0348Z UAV transit.
[HIGH] Visual or SIGINT confirmation of RU armor concentration points near Novopavlivka to verify the scale of the impending dawn assault.
[MEDIUM] Clarification on the 0313Z Aviatorske UAV; lack of reporting suggests either a successful EW "soft kill" or a strike on a non-civilian (likely aviation) target.
