AIR THREAT ESCALATION IN DONETSK (0307Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has initiated a new wave of Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes targeting the Donetsk region, following earlier strikes in Zaporizhzhia.
UAV VECTORING ON DNIPRO CITY (0313Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): A loitering munition has been tracked passing Aviatorske, currently on a direct intercept course for Dnipro city.
NORTHERN UAV TRANSIT (0310Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): A new loitering munition detected in Northern Chernihiv, maintaining a westward heading toward central Ukraine.
ZAPORIZHZHIA THREAT ABATEMENT (0327Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Air raid sirens have been deactivated in Zaporizhzhia, indicating the immediate KAB and UAV threat to the regional capital has subsided or been neutralized.
Operational picture (by sector)
Donbas Sector (Donetsk Axis):
Battlefield Geometry: Tactical aviation remains the primary effector. The shift of KAB launches back to Donetsk (0307Z) suggests a concentrated effort to soften frontline defenses ahead of the dawn "mechanized daylight assault" cycle predicted in the daily report for Novopavlivka.
Key Terrain: High-intensity bombardment likely focusing on Kostiantynivka and secondary defense lines to support the "Yug" group's advance.
Dnipropetrovsk / Central Vector:
Battlefield Geometry: The threat identified at 0300Z has localized. The UAV's passage near Aviatorske (0313Z) is significant, as this area houses critical aviation infrastructure. The course toward Dnipro city indicates a transition from a transit phase to a terminal engagement phase.
Control Measures: Electronic Warfare (EW) and Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are likely concentrated around the Aviatorske-Dnipro corridor.
Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Kyiv):
Battlefield Geometry: A single UAV is currently transiting Northern Chernihiv (0310Z). This follows earlier reports of Shahed movement through Borodyanka. The westward course suggests a deepening penetration toward the Kyiv oblast or Zhytomyr.
Zaporizhzhia Sector:
Status: Kinetic activity has temporarily ceased following the 0327Z "All Clear." This suggests the earlier KAB wave (0257Z) was a limited-pulse operation rather than a sustained multi-hour bombardment.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
1. Capabilities and Intentions:
Aviation Adaptability: The enemy is rapidly shifting tactical aviation focus between Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk. This "shuttling" of KAB strikes forces UAF air defenses to remain mobile and prevents the establishment of a stable local AD umbrella.
Loitering Munitions: The presence of a westward-bound UAV in Chernihiv and a Dnipro-bound UAV in the south indicates a pincer-style shaping operation intended to keep the rear-area grid under constant pressure.
2. Courses of Action:
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes in Donetsk through 0600Z to facilitate ground assaults at dawn. UAVs will continue to loiter over Dnipro and Northern Ukraine to fix AD assets in place.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A coordinated "negotiation by fire" strike involving the 0.00 activity score missile stocks (from the 59.97, 29.31 arsenal) hitting the energy grid simultaneously with the dawn ground offensive.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Successful clearance of the Zaporizhzhia airspace (0327Z). MFGs are currently actively tracking the Dnipro-bound UAV.
Counter-Battery: Units in Lyman (Lazari unit) continue to maintain high attrition rates against Russian armor (14 vehicles destroyed) despite heavy KAB pressure.
Information environment / disinformation
Diversionary Narrative: Russian state media (TASS) is currently flooding feeds with soft-power stories (e.g., Japanese panda returns, 0330Z) to dilute reporting on the heavy kinetic activity in the Donbas and the failure of diplomatic talks in Abu Dhabi.
External Distraction: Reporting on UK police reforms (0307Z) may be utilized in the next 24h by RU hybrid actors to frame Western internal instability.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Ground Offensive (0400Z–0800Z): Expect high-intensity mechanized assaults in the Novopavlivka and Kostiantynivka sectors following the current KAB preparation.
Energy Infrastructure: The 48-hour window for a major strike wave (identified in the daily report) is now active. The "silence" at Russian missile arsenals suggests a strike is imminent.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine if the UAV passing Aviatorske (0313Z) conducted a strike on the airfield or continued toward Dnipro city center.
[HIGH] ELINT confirmation of Russian Su-34/35 sortie rates from Voronezh Malshevo to confirm if the KAB wave in Donetsk is the main effort.
[MEDIUM] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the Kholodnohirskyi district strike in Kharkiv (0234Z).
