AIR DEFENSE: KYIV ALL-CLEAR (1814Z-1815Z, KMVA/AFU Air Force, HIGH): The air raid alert for Kyiv has been lifted following the neutralization of the ballistic threat.
KINETIC STRIKE: CHERNIHIV OBLAST (1809Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Two "Iskander" ballistic missiles reportedly struck targets in the vicinity of Loknystoe. Crucially, the strike was reportedly guided by a real-time reconnaissance UAV, indicating persistent Russian ISR over northern Ukraine.
UAF COUNTER-STRIKE: KURSK OBLAST (1812Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): Ukrainian aviation successfully struck a known Russian drone launch site in Tetkino, Kursk Oblast (RF). Video evidence confirms the strike, marking a direct attempt to degrade the source of northern loitering munition waves.
CIVIL UNREST: KRYVYI RIH (1817Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Reports and video indicate residents are blocking streets in Kryvyi Rih to protest prolonged power outages, signaling that infrastructure degradation is reaching a critical threshold for civil stability.
DIPLOMATIC DEADLOCK: ABU DHABI TALKS (1825Z-1831Z, RBK-Ukraine/Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): Reports indicate a lack of breakthrough in trilateral negotiations. Russia is reportedly demanding a full UAF withdrawal from the unoccupied portions of Donetsk Oblast, a condition Ukraine has explicitly rejected.
AERIAL THREAT: CENTRAL VECTOR (1830Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Loitering munitions (Shaheds) are currently transiting Cherkasy Oblast (Chyhyryn) on a heading toward Kirovohrad Oblast.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Vector (Kyiv/Chernihiv/Kursk):
Chernihiv: The Iskander strike in Loknystoe (1809Z) suggests a shift from saturation strikes on the capital to precision interdiction of provincial targets. The presence of a "spotter drone" indicates gaps in local short-range air defense (SHORAD) or electronic warfare (EW) coverage.
Kursk (Cross-border): UAF aviation continues to demonstrate the ability to conduct high-risk strikes within Russian territory to disrupt "Geran/Shahed" launch operations at the source (Tetkino).
Donbas Sector (Pokrovsk/Druzhkivka/Donetsk):
Druzhkivka Axis: Russian sources are focusing mapping efforts on this direction (1831Z), suggesting it may be the next priority for mechanized pressure as negotiations over Donetsk reach an impasse.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Russian "Tsentr" Group forces utilized Grad MLRS against UAF strongpoints (1826Z), maintaining a high tempo of indirect fire to prevent UAF force consolidation.
Southern/Central Vector (Kryvyi Rih/Cherkasy):
Transit: Shahed UAVs are moving southwest. The flight path (Chyhyryn -> Kirovohrad) suggests potential targeting of energy infrastructure in central Ukraine or logistical hubs supporting the southern front.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
1. Capabilities and Intentions:
ISR-Strike Integration: The use of reconnaissance drones to guide Iskander strikes in Chernihiv (1809Z) confirms that Russia is effectively nesting its high-precision assets with persistent aerial surveillance, reducing the "sensor-to-shooter" timeline.
Negotiation Positioning: Russia’s demand for UAF withdrawal from the remainder of Donetsk (1831Z) indicates an "all-or-nothing" stance intended to either force a total collapse of the Ukrainian defense in the east or provide a pretext for a massive winter offensive if talks fail.
2. Courses of Action:
MLCOA: Continued Shahed transit throughout the night targeting Kirovohrad and Vinnytsia to maintain pressure on the grid.
MDCOA: Following the failure of the current round of talks, Russia may initiate a multi-brigade assault on the Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk axis to "enforce" their territorial demands.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Active Defense: Transitioned from capital defense back to monitoring transit corridors in central Ukraine.
Offensive Counter-Air (OCA): The strike in Tetkino (1812Z) represents a proactive tactical shift—targeting the "archers" (launch sites) rather than just the "arrows" (drones).
Civil Management: Authorities face increasing pressure in Kryvyi Rih; emergency services are likely being diverted to manage civil stability alongside technical repairs.
Information environment / disinformation
Dehumanization: Dmitry Medvedev (1821Z, 1826Z) has escalated derogatory rhetoric against Ukrainian leadership. This is a standard reflexive control tactic to lower the threshold for domestic Russian support for continued high-intensity conflict.
Allied Friction: Russian channels (Operatsiya Z, 1802Z) are amplifying friction between the US and Canada (Trump commentary) to project an image of a fracturing Western coalition.
Morale Sabotage: Sensationalist claims regarding the WEF in Davos (1826Z) are being used to paint Western supporters as decadent and detached, aimed at eroding Ukrainian public trust in international partners.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
KINETIC: Continued UAV activity over Kirovohrad and Cherkasy. High probability of retaliatory missile strikes following the UAF hit on Tetkino.
CIVIL: Risk of "contagion" regarding civil unrest over power outages. If Kryvyi Rih protests are not resolved, similar incidents may occur in other industrial hubs (e.g., Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) for the Tetkino strike: Determine if launch infrastructure was destroyed or merely suppressed.
[MEDIUM] Identification of the specific UAV model providing real-time guidance for Iskander strikes in the north to develop appropriate EW countermeasures.
[LOW] Monitoring of social media in Kryvyi Rih to determine if protests are organic or being steered by Russian-aligned influence operations.
