AERIAL ASSAULT: KYIV/NORTHERN VECTOR (1740Z-1754Z, AFU/KMVA, HIGH): A coordinated aerial attack is currently underway. UAVs are transiting northern Kyiv Oblast toward Zhytomyr; concurrently, a ballistic missile threat has been identified from Bryansk (RF), with at least one high-speed target tracked SW from Chernihiv.
DIPLOMATIC: NEXT ROUND SCHEDULED (1738Z, Axios/Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): The next round of trilateral US-UA-RU negotiations is reportedly scheduled for February 1 in Abu Dhabi.
TECH ADAPTATION: OPTICAL GUIDANCE ON UAVS (1740Z, Alex Parker, MEDIUM): Reports indicate Russian "Geran" (Shahed) UAVs are now equipped with cameras for real-time terminal guidance and strike correction against energy infrastructure (transformers), allowing for bypass of physical barriers.
ENERGY CRISIS: NATIONWIDE BLACKOUTS (1744Z, Ukrenergo, HIGH): Ukrenergo has announced scheduled power outages for all Ukrainian regions tomorrow, following sustained infrastructure degradation.
TACTICAL: KHARKIV ENVELOPMENT EFFORT (1801Z, Rybar, MEDIUM): Russian "Sever" forces claim tactical gains in the Burlyuk direction (S/SW of Vovchansk), attempting to widen the tactical bulge noted in earlier reports.
LOGISTICS: VDV RESOURCE STRAIN (1737Z, Arkhangel Spetsnaz, MEDIUM): Prominent Russian mil-channels report a "stalled" fundraising effort for VDV units, citing donor fatigue despite urgent needs for assault operations and transport.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kharkiv/Kupyansk Sector:
Vovchansk: Russian forces are attempting to maneuver south/southwest of the city (Burlyuk direction) to bypass UAF strongpoints.
Kupyansk: The sector is characterized by a "layer cake" disposition where high drone density has created a stalemate in the "grey zone." Both sides are experiencing significant logistical disruption due to FPV and reconnaissance UAVs, preventing the accumulation of strike groups (1800Z, Colonelcassad).
Donbas Sector (Pokrovsk/Donetsk):
Interdiction: UAF "Phoenix" units are successfully conducting night-time FPV strikes against Russian logistics on the Pokrovsk axis (1741Z, Sternenko).
Assault Tactics: Russian forces continue to utilize high-risk "disposable" transport for infantry; the 110th Mech Bde (UA) recorded the destruction of a Russian squad attempting a storming operation in an open-topped "Ural" truck (1736Z, Butusov).
Kyiv/Northern Sector:
Kinetic Activity: Air defense systems are likely engaged as of 1750Z. The threat profile includes both low-slow loitering munitions (Shaheds) and high-speed ballistic assets, a classic "complexity strike" designed to saturate AD response.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
1. Capabilities and Intentions:
Precision Infrastructure Strikes: The integration of cameras on loitering munitions (1740Z) represents a significant tactical evolution. This allows Russian operators to compensate for GPS jamming and specifically target high-value components within electrical substations.
Negotiation by Fire: The timing of the current missile/UAV wave, coinciding with the leak of the Feb 1 talks date, confirms a strategy of using kinetic pressure to improve diplomatic leverage.
2. Courses of Action:
MLCOA: Continued multi-vector strikes on Kyiv and central Ukraine throughout the night to maximize energy grid stress before tomorrow’s scheduled blackouts.
MDCOA: A sustained ballistic surge targeting command and control (C2) nodes in Kyiv while AD is distracted by UAV swarms.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Active engagement of targets over Kyiv and Chernihiv Oblasts.
Asymmetric Response: Increased use of night-capable FPV drones on the Pokrovsk axis to offset Russian mechanized pressure.
Civil Resilience: Implementation of nationwide rolling blackouts (1744Z) to prevent total grid collapse.
Information environment / disinformation
Negotiation Framing: Russian state media (TASS) is pivoting to secondary grievances (detained sailors) to create friction between US and UA interests (1733Z).
Internal Morale: Russian mil-channels are showing rare signs of "crowdfunding fatigue," suggesting that the rapid loss of equipment in "meat assaults" (e.g., the open-truck incident) is outpacing local logistics and charity support.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
KINETIC: High intensity. The "ballistic threat from Bryansk" (1743Z) indicates the start of the heavy phase of the anticipated strike wave. Residents in Kyiv and Zhytomyr should expect prolonged AD activity.
OPERATIONAL: Potential for further Russian tactical creep around Vovchansk as they exploit the Burlyuk direction.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of "Geran" camera modules: Recovered wreckage analysis needed to confirm the control link (Starlink, GSM, or proprietary) used for real-time video.
[HIGH] Assessment of damage to transformers in the current 1740Z wave to determine the effectiveness of new Russian precision tactics.
[MEDIUM] Monitoring of Russian transport aviation (Il-76) movements in "high latitude" regions (ref: Fighterbomber 1743Z) to determine if this indicates strategic redeployment or Arctic-sector posturing.
