DIPLOMATIC - DELEGATION EXPANSION (0841Z-0842Z, RBK-UA/OperativnoZSU, HIGH): President Zelenskyy has significantly expanded the Ukrainian delegation for the Abu Dhabi trilateral talks to include HUR Chief Budanov, Defense Minister Umerov, and General Hnatov, signaling a focus on concrete military-security frameworks rather than just political abstractions.
STRATEGIC - US-UA ECONOMIC INTEGRATION (0834Z-0853Z, RBK-UA/Alex Parker, MEDIUM): Zelenskyy claims Donald Trump supports a Free Trade Zone (FTZ) for Ukraine, including the removal of 10% tariffs. This suggests a shift toward economic "security through prosperity" as a negotiation pillar.
URBAN COMBAT - KUPYANSK (0857Z, Butusov Plus, MEDIUM): The 4th Battalion "Khartiya" Brigade is reportedly conducting a "clearing operation" in central Kupyansk, indicating localized UAF counter-tactical successes against RU incursions.
MILITARY TECH - DIGITAL COMMAND (0900Z, OperativnoZSU, HIGH): UA Ministry of Defense announced "Mission Control," a digital system to integrate all drone operations into the DELTA ecosystem, aimed at centralized real-time UAV management.
AERIAL OPERATIONS - KAB SURGE (0849Z-0858Z, GSZSU/Air Force, HIGH): Massive Russian glide bomb (KAB) launches confirmed across Kharkiv (Dobropillya) and at least eight settlements in Zaporizhzhia (including Huliaipole and Stepove), marking a significant increase in standoff strike volume.
SECURITY ASSISTANCE - CZECH AIRCRAFT (0901Z, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, MEDIUM): Reports indicate the Czech government has blocked the transfer of L-159 light attack aircraft to Ukraine, despite presidential support. [UNCONFIRMED]
Operational picture (by sector)
Donbas Sector (Pokrovsk & Kramatorsk)
Pokrovsk Axis: Extremely high-intensity combat. Clashes reported across a 12-settlement arc from Shakhove to Dachne. RU is maintaining a "broad-front" push to prevent UAF reserve concentration (0849Z).
Kramatorsk/Chasiv Yar: Continued assaults near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Chasiv Yar. RU efforts focus on seizing high ground to facilitate fire control over logistical routes to the west (0849Z).
Lyman/Sloviansk: High kinetic activity near Drobysheve and Yampil. RU is attempting to collapse the Ukrainian bridgehead east of the Oskil river (0849Z).
Northern Sector (Kharkiv & Kupyansk)
Kupyansk: UAF "Khartiya" units are actively engaging RU infantry in the city center, suggesting RU reached the urban core but is currently being pushed back (0857Z).
Kharkiv Border: Combat reported near Vovchansk and Prylipka. RU aviation is heavily utilizing KABs to suppress UAF tactical reserves (0858Z).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia & Kherson)
Zaporizhzhia: A notable increase in RU aviation activity. Eight different settlements targeted by airstrikes in the last hour, likely intended to disrupt UAF logistics ahead of any potential RU ground offensive in the Orikhiv direction (0849Z).
Kherson: Stability remains high with only one RU assault repelled in the last 24h, indicating RU is deprioritizing this axis for the Donbas push (0849Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (COA): RU is intensifying "Negotiation by Fire." By maximizing the strike list (KABs) and ground assault points just as the Abu Dhabi talks commence, Moscow seeks to demonstrate that Ukrainian resistance is unsustainable without immediate territorial concessions (0900Z).
Strategic Narrative: SVR Director Naryshkin is promoting a "BRICS-centric" world order, likely to provide RU with a diplomatic exit ramp that does not involve Western-led security architectures (0843Z).
Internal Security: FSB claims of detaining "saboteurs" in Crimea (0836Z) continue, likely used to justify the heavy militarization of the peninsula during the diplomatic window.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Technological Adaptation: The launch of "Mission Control" (0900Z) indicates a pivot toward digital superiority to compensate for RU's mass in traditional artillery and aviation.
Strategic Posturing: Zelenskyy’s proposal for the UAF to become the "foundation of United Forces of Europe" (0845Z) is a high-level play to secure long-term EU defense funding and integration, framing Ukraine as a security provider rather than just a consumer.
Information environment / disinformation
Hungarian Spoiler: Viktor Orbán’s statement regarding a "100-year ban" on UA entering the EU (0842Z) is being heavily amplified by RU state media (TASS) and mil-bloggers (Colonelcassad) to demoralize the UA public and highlight Western disunity.
Negotiation Leaks: Pro-RU channels (Alex Parker) are circulating rumors of "territory for reparations" (0900Z). This is likely disinformation aimed at seeding internal division within the Ukrainian government and public.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA: Continuation of high-volume KAB strikes across the Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv sectors. RU will likely attempt one major localized breakthrough on the Pokrovsk axis to produce a "headline victory" for the Abu Dhabi negotiators.
Most Dangerous COA: RU forces in the Kupyansk urban center receive heavy reinforcements, potentially leading to the loss of the city's eastern half during the diplomatic talks.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of the Czech L-159 blockage. If confirmed, identify if this signals a broader shift in East European military support.
[URGENT] Tactical BDA of the KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia; determine if RU is targeting specific "Mission Control" nodes or drone assembly sites.
[HIGH] Monitor for movements of the RU 120th GRAU Arsenal munitions (previously noted as quiet) toward the Pokrovsk or Kupyansk sectors.
[MEDIUM] Clarification on the specific "territorial question" parameters being discussed in Abu Dhabi to counter RU disinformation.
