DIPLOMATIC - TRILATERAL NEGOTIATIONS (0823Z-0826Z, Axios/Zelenskyy, HIGH): President Zelenskyy confirmed that the "territorial question of Eastern Ukraine" (Donbas) is the primary agenda for today’s trilateral talks with the U.S. and Russia in Abu Dhabi.
STRATEGIC - U.S. SECURITY GUARANTEES (0822Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): Security guarantee documents with the United States are reportedly finalized. Zelenskyy is awaiting a specific date/location from the Trump administration for the formal signing.
CIVILIAN CRISIS - KYIV INFRASTRUCTURE (0825Z, Mayor Klitschko, HIGH): Mayor Klitschko issued a secondary, urgent appeal for residents to stockpile food/water or evacuate the city, citing "dire" infrastructure degradation following sustained strikes.
AERIAL THREAT - MULTI-AXIS (0815Z-0829Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Concurrent RU drone (UAV) groups detected moving toward Chernihiv, Chuhuiv (Kharkiv), and Synelnykove (Dnipropetrovsk). KAB (glide bomb) launches confirmed targeting Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions.
GROUND OPERATIONS - POKROVSK AXIS (0826Z-0827Z, RU MoD/Basurin, MEDIUM): RU forces report intensive artillery support and Ka-52M attack helicopter strikes against UAF strongholds near Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk), indicating a continued main effort in the Donbas.
INTERNAL SECURITY - DEFENSE CORRUPTION (0826Z, Prosecutor General, HIGH): UA authorities uncovered a 14.6 million UAH embezzlement scheme related to defense procurement, emphasizing ongoing internal vetting.
Operational picture (by sector)
Donbas Sector (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmiysk Axis)
Enemy Activity: High-intensity tactical aviation (Ka-52M) and massed artillery are being used to soften UAF defensive lines ahead of infantry pushes (0827Z). This remains the highest kinetic priority for RU forces.
Airstrikes: KAB strikes are focused on the tactical rear in Donetsk to disrupt rotation and reinforcement (0815Z).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia Axis)
Airstrikes: Confirmed KAB launches (0815Z) suggest a widening of the strike zone beyond the contact line to target logistical hubs.
UAV Incursions: A group of drones is currently transiting toward Synelnykove (0829Z), likely targeting the rail junctions connecting Dnipro to the Zaporizhzhia front.
Kharkiv/Northern Sector
UAV Movement: New incursions toward Chernihiv (0802Z) and Chuhuiv (0821Z) indicate RU is maintaining pressure on the northern border to pin UAF air defense assets away from the Donbas.
Rear Areas (LPR/Crimea)
Logistics Impact: RU sources report a significant strike (occurred Jan 18) in Novokrasnyanka, claiming the loss of critical equipment and personnel (0809Z).
Counter-Sabotage: RU sources claim the capture of UA-linked "terrorists" in Crimea (0806Z). UNCONFIRMED; likely a narrative to justify increased security measures ahead of negotiations.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (COA): RU is executing a "Negotiation by Fire" strategy—maximizing kinetic pressure on the Donbas and grid pressure on Kyiv—to force maximal concessions during the Abu Dhabi trilateral talks (0826Z).
Tactical Adaptation: Continued reliance on Ka-52M for close air support in the "Tsentr" group area suggests RU is attempting to bypass UA electronic warfare (EW) through low-altitude, high-speed aviation strikes.
Sustainment: The emergency diversion of another RU civilian aircraft (Phuket-Barnaul) to China (0817Z) underscores the systemic failure of RU aviation maintenance, which may eventually impact military transport capacity.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Posture: The UAF is maintaining a defensive posture while political leadership pivots toward a long-term security architecture with the U.S.
Civil Defense: Kyiv municipal authorities are preparing for a potential total grid failure, shifting toward a decentralized survival model (0825Z).
Internal Integrity: The Prosecutor General’s anti-corruption actions (0826Z) serve as a critical signal to Western partners (specifically the incoming U.S. administration) regarding accountability for defense aid.
Information environment / disinformation
Diplomatic Friction: RU state media is amplifying Belgian MEP Elio di Rupo’s calls to end support for Kyiv (0829Z) to highlight cracks in EU unity.
Hybrid Pressure (Moldova): RU channels (Rybar) are increasing rhetoric regarding "sabotage" in Chisinau (0813Z), potentially signaling a renewed hybrid effort to destabilize Moldova as a distraction for Western observers.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA: Sustained UAV and KAB strikes throughout the day to coincide with the Abu Dhabi talks. Expect high-volume strikes on the Pokrovsk axis to secure localized tactical gains for diplomatic leverage.
Most Dangerous COA: A massive, coordinated missile strike on Kyiv's remaining energy nodes, timed with the conclusion of the trilateral talks, to force an immediate humanitarian ceasefire on RU terms.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirmation of current territorial control lines in the Pokrovsk sector following reported Ka-52M/Artillery surge.
[URGENT] Technical BDA on the "military object" in Novokrasnyanka to confirm the extent of RU equipment loss.
[HIGH] Monitoring of RU "Tsentr" group radio traffic for shift in objectives following the start of Abu Dhabi negotiations.
[MEDIUM] Verification of the status of the "saboteur" group in Crimea to distinguish between genuine operational compromise and RU propaganda.
