UAV THREAT REDIRECTION TO ZAPORIZHZHIA (0120Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Loitering munitions previously operating in southern Dnipropetrovsk have changed vector and are now on a direct course for Zaporizhzhia.
KAB LAUNCHES ON EASTERN KHARKIV (0131Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has expanded its glide-bombing campaign, launching KABs specifically targeting eastern Kharkiv Oblast.
PROPAGANDA NARRATIVE: ALLEGED "FRIENDLY FIRE" ORDERS (0104Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian state-aligned sources are circulating a video of a purported UAF POW claiming command orders to shoot "their own." UNCONFIRMED / PSYOP.
CHINESE GEOPOLITICAL SIGNALING (0103Z, TASS, MEDIUM): China has announced zero tariffs for least developed countries, likely a move to bolster "Global South" alignment and offset Western trade pressure.
DISHARMONY IN DANISH DEFENSE TERMS (0121Z, TASS/Axios, MEDIUM): Reports suggest a deal regarding Greenland will maintain Danish sovereignty while restructuring defense conditions, potentially impacting Arctic/NATO posture.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational tempo remains high with a notable geographic expansion of the Russian aerial effort. The focus of the loitering munition (Shahed) wave has shifted from the Kryvyi Rih/Nikopol axis toward the Zaporizhzhia urban/industrial hub. Simultaneously, the KAB (glide bomb) threat has broadened from the Donetsk axis to include the Eastern Kharkiv frontline.
Battlefield Geometry:
Southern Sector: Threats are converging on Zaporizhzhia, suggesting a tactical shift from infrastructure disruption in Dnipropetrovsk to probable targeting of rear-area logistics or troop concentrations in the south.
Kharkiv/Donetsk Sector: Russia is maintaining a multi-axis aerial bombardment, likely aiming to prevent UAF reserve shifts between these two high-pressure fronts.
Weather/Environmental: Night operations continue. Cloud cover in the east is likely sufficient for KAB deployment using GLONASS/GPS guidance kits.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities and Intentions:
Aviation Strategy: The expansion of KAB strikes to Kharkiv (0131Z) indicates that the RF has sufficient tactical air frames and munitions to sustain simultaneous suppression of both the Donbas and Kharkiv fronts. This suggests a desire to fix UAF forces in place along the entire eastern border.
UAV Maneuver: The redirection toward Zaporizhzhia (0120Z) after earlier threatening Kryvyi Rih (0050Z) demonstrates a high level of real-time command and control (C2) over loitering munition flight paths, likely intended to probe and exhaust regional Air Defense (AD) networks.
Hybrid Operations: The release of the "friendly fire" POW video (0104Z) is a classic information operation (IO) aimed at eroding internal UAF trust and demoralizing the civilian population.
Enemy Course of Action (COA):
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV saturation of Zaporizhzhia through the early morning hours, paired with intensive KAB strikes in Eastern Kharkiv to degrade defensive fortifications ahead of morning ground probes.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated "double-tap" strike using UAVs to trigger AD responses in Zaporizhzhia, followed by ballistic missile strikes once AD positions are exposed or depleted.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Force Posture and Readiness:
Air Defense: Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) in Zaporizhzhia are on high alert. The shift in UAV vector requires rapid repositioning of short-range AD assets to cover the city's southern and eastern approaches.
Frontline Defensive Posture: Units in Eastern Kharkiv (Vovchansk/Kupiansk directions) must maintain maximum dispersion and utilize hardened shelters to mitigate the impact of the newly reported KAB wave.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Disinformation Alert: The Colonelcassad POW video (0104Z) should be treated as a manufactured narrative. Its timing—coinciding with the Telegram throttling reported earlier—suggests a controlled information release by the RF Ministry of Defense to fill the vacuum created by the crackdown on independent milbloggers.
Geopolitical Context: The Greenland defense negotiations (0121Z) indicate shifting dynamics within NATO’s northern flank, which Moscow is closely monitoring via its state media.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Timeline (0-6h): Expect active kinetic engagement over Zaporizhzhia. UAV impacts or interceptions are imminent. KAB impacts in Kharkiv are likely within the hour.
Timeline (6-12h): Dawn reconnaissance drones (Orlan-10/Supercam) will likely deploy over Kharkiv to assess damage from the 0131Z KAB wave.
Decision Point: If KAB intensity in Kharkiv continues to match that of Donetsk, UAF High Command may need to re-evaluate the allocation of high-end AD (Patriot/SAMP-T) to protect northern logistic hubs.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm if the UAVs moving toward Zaporizhzhia are part of the same wave earlier seen in Dnipropetrovsk or a fresh ingress from the Azov coast.
[HIGH] Identify the specific targets of the Eastern Kharkiv KAB launches—are they hitting frontline trenches or rear-area supply depots in the Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi region?
[MEDIUM] Monitor Russian "milblogger" reaction to the Novosibirsk mall incident (0112Z) to see if domestic instability narratives are gaining traction despite the Telegram throttling.
[LOW] Verify the authenticity of the "friendly fire" video; check for metadata or visual cues indicating the location and unit of the alleged prisoner.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
UAV Movement (Zaporizhzhia): HIGH (UAF AF official report)
KAB Launches (Kharkiv): HIGH (UAF AF official report)
POW Confession Narrative: LOW (Single source, known propaganda channel)
Greenland/Danish Defense Shifts: MEDIUM (Corroborated by Axios, but details are preliminary)
