UAV VECTOR SHIFT TOWARD KRYVYI RIH (0038Z-0050Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Loitering munitions (Shaheds) previously tracked in southern Dnipropetrovsk have adjusted course westward, now directly threatening the Kryvyi Rih urban area.
AERIAL BOMBARDMENT OF DONETSK OBLAST (0047Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched a fresh wave of KAB (glide bombs) targeting the Donetsk axis, likely supporting the ongoing Sloviansk/Vovchansk offensive.
REPORTED ATTRITION RATES (0100Z, RBC-UA/NATO, MEDIUM): NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte cited Russian losses at approximately 1,000 personnel per day throughout December, underscoring the high-intensity attrition phase of current operations.
CLAIMED NEUTRALIZATION OF UAF RECON ASSET (0043Z, TASS, LOW): Russian "Volki" brigade claims a drone strike destroyed a "valuable" Ukrainian artillery spotter/observer. UNCONFIRMED.
RUSSIAN DOMESTIC DATA SECURITY NARRATIVE (0033Z, TASS, LOW): Roskomnadzor reports a decrease in personal data leaks for 2025, likely part of a broader internal information operation to project stability amidst the reported digital/Telegram blackout.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment is characterized by a high-tempo Russian aerial campaign. While previous reporting emphasized Odesa and Nikopol, the focus has expanded to include Kryvyi Rih and intensified glide-bombing of the Donbas front.
Battlefield Geometry:
Dnipropetrovsk Axis: The threat has shifted from the Nikopol energy hub toward the Kryvyi Rih logistics and industrial center.
Donetsk Axis: The frontline near Sloviansk remains under heavy pressure from standoff aerial munitions (KABs).
Weather/Environmental: Nighttime conditions continue to facilitate UAV ingress. Visibility for tactical aviation remains sufficient for KAB deployment on the eastern front.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities and Intentions:
Air/Missile Strategy: The RF is employing a "pincer" of loitering munitions in the south (Kryvyi Rih/Odesa) while using tactical aviation (KABs) to provide direct support for ground units in the east. This forces UAF to bifurcate Air Defense (AD) assets between point defense of cities and frontline coverage.
Tactical Focus: The claim by the "Volki" brigade regarding the targeting of a UAF spotter (0043Z) aligns with a Russian emphasis on degrading Ukrainian precision fire capabilities by targeting the "human in the loop" (reconnaissance/observers).
Personnel Status: If Rutte’s 1,000/day casualty figure is accurate, the RF's reliance on North Korean MLRS and massed engineering assets (IRM-3M) is a critical necessity to offset qualitative manpower degradation with volume of fire and mobility enhancements.
Enemy Course of Action (COA):
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV saturation of Kryvyi Rih to disrupt local logistics while maintaining high-volume KAB strikes on Donetsk to soften defenses ahead of a ground push near Sloviansk.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A breakthrough in the Sloviansk sector enabled by KAB suppression of UAF fixed positions, followed by a rapid advance using the newly deployed engineering assets and North Korean fire support.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Force Posture and Readiness:
Air Defense: UAF AD and Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are actively tracking and engaging threats in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The pivot of UAVs toward Kryvyi Rih requires immediate reassignment of regional interception zones.
Reconnaissance: Russian claims of targeting spotters suggest a heightened threat environment for forward-deployed UAF ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) teams. Tactical units should increase displacement frequency for observation posts.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
NATO Signaling: Mark Rutte’s public statement on Russian losses (0100Z) serves to bolster Western support by highlighting the unsustainable cost of the RF offensive.
Russian Internal Control: The Roskomnadzor report on reduced data leaks (0033Z) and the confirmed Telegram throttling suggest the Kremlin is tightening the "digital perimeter" to prevent leaks of casualty data or battlefield failures from reaching the domestic public.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Timeline (0-6h): Kinetic impacts expected in Kryvyi Rih. Expect reports of KAB impacts in the Sloviansk/Kramatorsk vicinity.
Timeline (6-12h): Following the KAB wave, expect Russian ground reconnaissance-in-force or localized assaults in the Donetsk sector to test for gaps in the UAF line.
Decision Point: If UAF spotter losses are confirmed as a trend, command must accelerate the transition to automated/remote ISR systems to reduce personnel exposure.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm if KAB launches (0047Z) are utilizing new guidance kits or increased ranges, specifically targeting UAF command nodes vs. frontline trenches.
[HIGH] Verify the status of the Kryvyi Rih industrial/logistics hubs following the 0050Z UAV vector shift.
[MEDIUM] Assess if the reported 1,000/day loss rate is impacting the deployment schedule of the new IRM-3M engineering units.
[MEDIUM] Corroborate the TASS claim of the "Volki" brigade strike; determine if this indicates a new Russian priority on targeting UAF fire-correction teams.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
UAV Movements (Kryvyi Rih): HIGH (Corroborated by UAF AF)
KAB Launches (Donetsk): HIGH (Corroborated by UAF AF)
Russian Personnel Losses: MEDIUM (Political statement, requires cross-referencing with visual data)
Volki Brigade Tactical Claim: LOW (Single source, Russian state media)
