SUSTAINED DEEP STRIKE ON TAMAN PENINSULA (2001Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): For the second consecutive day, Ukrainian forces have successfully struck critical energy infrastructure in the Krasnodar Krai. The "Tamanneftegaz" port terminal in Volna is reporting significant fires and infrastructure damage (1952Z, 1958Z).
MOSCOW BACKCHANNEL DIPLOMACY (1949Z, RBK-UA, MEDIUM): Putin announced that US representatives Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner are scheduled to arrive in Moscow tomorrow for "dialogue on Ukraine."
KYIV ENERGY PIVOT (1943Z, Shmyhal, HIGH): PM Shmyhal announced a shift to "hard" (strict but predictable) power outage schedules for Kyiv and the surrounding oblast due to technical grid constraints.
ZAPORIZHZHIA UAV VECTORS (1940Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Multiple strike UAVs (Shaheds) are entering Zaporizhzhia airspace from the east.
OCCUPIED DONETSK STRIKE (1936Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): Local sources report a significant strike and secondary smoke plumes in occupied Donetsk; exact target profile (logistics vs. C2) remains unconfirmed.
PEACE COUNCIL PROPOSAL (1932Z, TASS, LOW): Putin claims to have received an invitation from Donald Trump to join a "Peace Council." UNCONFIRMED by US/independent sources; likely a Kremlin information operation to project diplomatic legitimacy.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has shifted toward a high-stakes combination of strategic deep strikes and intensive diplomatic signaling.
Battlefield Geometry: Kinetic focus remains on the "Deep Rear" of the Southern Grouping. The repeated targeting of the Taman/Kuban logistics hub indicates a deliberate campaign to interdict fuel supplies to the Black Sea Fleet and southern front lines before late-winter maneuvers.
Energy/Infrastructure: The situation in Kyiv has reached a technical tipping point. The move to "hard" schedules (1943Z) suggests that while emergency repairs (reported at 1904Z) were partially successful, the system cannot sustain full loads.
Weather: Continued cold-weather operations are driving tactical interest in remote mining and anti-UAV technologies as ground movement becomes predictable along cleared routes.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Capabilities and Intentions:
Logistical Vulnerability: The Russian MoD’s inability to protect the Taman port for two consecutive days suggests significant gaps in the local Integrated Air Defense System (IADS) or the effective use of low-observable/saturation tactics by UA forces.
Information Maneuvering: Putin’s flurry of statements regarding a "Peace Council," frozen assets ($1B offer), and Greenland (1932Z-1946Z) indicates a major Russian effort to seize the narrative ahead of the Witkoff/Kushner visit. This is likely intended to weaken Western resolve by presenting an image of a "reasonable" Russia.
Electronic Warfare (EW): Russian state media is highlighting the "Nomads" unit (1935Z), specializing in mobile anti-UAV operations. This indicates RU is attempting to adapt to UA FPV/UAV dominance at the tactical level.
Course of Action (COA):
MLCOA: RU will maintain the UAV/KAB pressure on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv while using the tomorrow's Moscow visit to pause or complicate Western military aid discussions.
MDCOA: RU may attempt a provocative localized offensive in the Huliaipole-Dorozhnianka sector (1938Z) to demonstrate offensive capability while "peace talks" are discussed, forcing UA to commit reserves.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UA)
Force Posture and Readiness:
Strategic Interdiction: UA has demonstrated a sustained capability to strike the Krasnodar region, likely using a mix of domestic long-range UAVs and repurposed missile systems. This indicates a high level of coordination between GUR/SBU and technical strike units.
Civ-Mil Resilience: The procurement of generators for Kyiv’s water utility (1958Z) highlights a move toward decentralized critical infrastructure, essential for maintaining urban stability during the projected "hard" blackout schedules.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)
The "Trump Factor": UA information channels are actively monitoring and translating alleged Trump social media posts regarding Greenland and NATO (1935Z, 1939Z). This reflects a high degree of anxiety regarding potential shifts in US policy.
Kremlin Strategic Messaging: The claim that Russia will use $1B of frozen assets for a Peace Council (1935Z) is a sophisticated "poison pill" proposal—offering money that isn't currently under their control to appear magnanimous while testing Western legal/financial resolve.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Short-term (Next 6-12h): High probability of Shahed impacts in the Zaporizhzhia region. The smoke plume in occupied Donetsk (1936Z) may lead to RU retaliatory missile strikes against UA tactical headquarters in the Donbas.
Operational (24-48h): The arrival of Witkoff and Kushner in Moscow will trigger a peak in Russian disinformation. Expect "leaked" peace plans designed to divide UA's domestic political landscape and its European allies.
Logistical: If Taman facilities suffer a sustained outage, RU will be forced to reroute fuel through the Kerch Bridge or via rail through occupied Melitopol—both are high-risk bottlenecks.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the nature of the "invitation" to the Peace Council. Is this a formal US transition team initiative or a Russian fabrication?
[HIGH] Assess the BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the Tamanneftegaz terminal. Determine if fuel transshipment capacity is merely delayed or fundamentally degraded.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the Huliaipole-Dorozhnianka sector for RU force concentrations (specifically armor) that would indicate an intent to exploit current UAV pressure.
[LOW] Identify the specific "technical solutions" mentioned by Shmyhal for Kyiv's grid to estimate the true duration of the "hard" blackout period.
