STRATEGIC STRIKE ON TAMAN PORT (1911Z, TASS, HIGH): Ukrainian forces successfully struck port terminals in Volna (Temryuk district, Krasnodar Krai). Four fuel reservoirs are currently burning; Russian officials confirm casualties and fatalities (1916Z, 1921Z).
POKROVSK TACTICAL SUCCESS (1917Z, BUTUSOV PLUS, HIGH): Elements of the 155th Separate Mechanized Brigade (UA) captured three Russian servicemen during cellar clearing operations in Pokrovsk, indicating high-intensity urban combat and successful room-clearing maneuvers.
KHARIV KAB STRIKES (1909Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched a new wave of KAB (guided glide bombs) against targets in the Kharkiv region.
ZAPORIZHZHIA UAV THREAT (1918Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Multiple strike UAVs (Shahed/Geran) are approaching Zaporizhzhia from the east, specifically targeting the Vilniansk area (1905Z).
KYIV INFRASTRUCTURE RECOVERY (1904Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH): Restoration of heating for 3,260 buildings in the capital is scheduled to begin tonight following systemic damage from previous strikes on Jan 9 and 20.
INTERNAL POLITICAL FRICTION (1912Z, STERNENKO, HIGH): Controversy has emerged regarding the appointment of Oleksiy Shevchuk (former lawyer for Ilya Kyva) to the SAP (Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office) selection commission, posing a potential risk to institutional trust.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The theater is currently defined by a significant Ukrainian expansion of deep-strike operations into the Russian rear (Krasnodar) and high-friction urban engagements in the Donbas.
Battlefield Geometry: The focus remains on the Kupiansk urban center and the Pokrovsk salient. Ukrainian forces are successfully conducting "micro-tactical" operations (cellar clearing) in Pokrovsk while maintaining a defensive posture in Kupiansk.
Logistics & Infrastructure: A major interdiction of Russian fuel logistics occurred at the Taman port (1917Z), which likely serves as a critical node for the Southern Grouping of Forces and the Black Sea Fleet.
Weather: Sub-zero temperatures continue to necessitate urgent heating repairs in Kyiv (1924Z), making energy infrastructure a primary focus for civil-military stability.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Capabilities and Intentions:
Aerial Pressure: RU continues to rely on KAB strikes in Kharkiv (1909Z) to compensate for stagnant ground movement. The use of glide bombs suggests RU is attempting to degrade UA defensive positions without committing further armor to urban bottlenecks.
Southern UAV Vectors: The approach of UAVs from the east toward Zaporizhzhia (1918Z) indicates RU is utilizing launch sites in occupied Donetsk or Zaporizhzhia to bypass western-facing air defenses.
Kupiansk Consolidation: RU forces remain concentrated in a single quarter (1917Z). This "stacking" of units creates a high-density target for UA FPV drones and artillery but also suggests a localized "break or bleed" strategy for the city.
Course of Action (COA):
MLCOA: RU will continue KAB saturation in Kharkiv while attempting to stabilize the fire at the Taman port to prevent a total loss of fuel transshipment capability.
MDCOA: Utilizing the distraction of the Taman strike, RU may attempt a localized breakout in Kupiansk or launch a multi-vector missile strike on Kyiv to disrupt the scheduled heating restoration.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UA)
Force Posture and Readiness:
Deep Strike Proficiency: The strike on the Taman port terminals (1911Z) demonstrates UA's ability to penetrate Russian air defense over the Kerch Strait/Krasnodar region, likely using Neptune or long-range UAV variants.
Tactical Proficiency: The 155th OMBR's success in Pokrovsk (1917Z) highlights high readiness in urban Close Quarters Battle (CQB).
FPV Dominance: Continued positive feedback from operators (1902Z) suggests the domestic FPV supply chain is meeting technical requirements for frontline precision strikes.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Cognitive Domain:
Hybrid/Social Ops (RU): Russian channels (Alex Parker Returns, 1904Z) are amplifying reports of social breakdown and migrant-related crime in Chelyabinsk to fuel domestic instability and "loss of trust" in the RU central government.
Diplomatic Friction: The public rejection by Denmark of Donald Trump’s Greenland comments (1912Z, 1926Z) is being used by both RU and UA actors to gauge the future of NATO/Western cohesion.
Internal UA Integrity: The Shevchuk appointment scandal (1912Z) is a sensitive point that RU propaganda may exploit to signal a "return to corruption" within UA anti-corruption bodies.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Short-term (Next 6-12h): Expect secondary explosions and sustained logistical disruption in the Taman/Crimea corridor. Air raid sirens are highly likely in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro due to incoming UAVs.
Operational (24-72h): If the Taman fire is not contained, RU naval and mechanized movements in the south will face fuel rationing.
Strategic: The heating restoration in Kyiv (1924Z) is a critical window; RU may target the energy grid during the repair phase to maximize psychological impact.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Identify the platform used for the Taman strike (UAV vs. Missile) to assess current RU air defense vulnerabilities in the Krasnodar sector.
[HIGH] Determine the exact quarter in Kupiansk where RU forces are concentrated to facilitate FPV/Artillery targeting.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the 183rd Guards AA Regiment (previously reported "dark") for movement toward Krasnodar to reinforce port defenses.
[LOW] Assess the impact of the North Korean MLRS (reported in previous daily) on the Pokrovsk sector given the recent UA tactical gains there.
