CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE RECOVERY (1312Z, RBC-UA, HIGH): Power has been restored to all critical infrastructure objects in Kyiv; however, the broader grid remains fragile.
LEADERSHIP LOSS - ENERGY SECTOR (1328Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): Acting head of Ukrenergo, Oleksiy Brekht, was killed by electrocution during restoration works at a critical substation near Kyiv.
FINANCIAL AID ACCELERATION (1318Z, RBC-UA, HIGH): The European Parliament has approved an accelerated procedure for a €90 billion credit package for Ukraine.
UAV PROBING - MULTI-VECTOR (1303Z-1331Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Multiple Shahed/UAV groups detected transiting Cherkasy (heading North), Sumy (from South), Northern Chernihiv (toward Sedniv), and Eastern Kyiv Oblast (toward Kuleshiv).
STRATEGIC ENERGY SHIFT (1309Z, RBC-UA/Reuters, MEDIUM): India is reportedly replacing Russian oil imports with Middle Eastern supplies, marking a significant degradation in Russian sovereign revenue long-term.
PEACE PLAN NARRATIVE (1308Z, Operativno ZSU/BBG, LOW): Unconfirmed reports suggest Putin received a peace plan earlier this month via Kirill Dmitriev, allegedly coordinated with Ukrainian and European partners.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a high-tempo aerial duel and a pivot toward diplomatic signaling. While the "City-Kill" strategy continues via UAV strikes, Ukrainian technical teams have achieved a milestone by restoring power to Kyiv’s critical nodes. However, the death of Ukrenergo’s acting head during these repairs introduces a leadership vacuum at a critical juncture for the national grid.
Battlefield Geometry: No significant FLOT changes reported in the last 30 minutes. Activity is concentrated in the air domain (UAV intercepts) and the rear (infrastructure repair).
Weather/Environmental: Sub-zero temperatures persist, making the stabilization of the Kyiv energy hub vital for preventing further civilian displacement.
Logistics/Finance: The EU’s €90B credit acceleration provides a critical mid-term fiscal backstop as the energy crisis increases domestic costs.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities and Intentions:
Riverine Warfare Adaptation: Russian sources (Rybar, 1319Z) are increasingly discussing "drones for rivers." This likely indicates an intent to deploy naval USVs or specialized UAVs to target Ukrainian river crossings or pontoon logistics on the Dnipro and Oskil rivers.
Internal Repression: The life sentence handed to the assassin of Gen-Lt Igor Kirillov (CBRN Chief) (1314Z, Poddubny) serves as a signal of regime stability and zero-tolerance for partisan activity within the RF rear.
Personnel Recognition: Continued public awarding of BARS-13 (1304Z, MoD Russia) suggests a need to bolster morale within volunteer detachments currently engaged in the Yug Group of Forces.
Tactical Changes:
UAV Vectoring: Current UAV flights (1331Z) show a concerted effort to bypass Kyiv’s central AD by approaching through eastern and northern corridors (Sedniv, Kuleshiv).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UA)
Ukrainian Force Posture:
Grid Resilience: DTEK and Ukrenergo have prioritized Kyiv’s critical infrastructure, successfully restoring power despite ongoing aerial threats.
Anti-Corruption Operations: Internal security remains active; the seizure of accounts related to the "Midas" money laundering case (1324Z, NABU) demonstrates continued focus on domestic oversight during the war.
Leadership Continuity: The loss of Oleksiy Brekht (1328Z) will require an immediate appointment to ensure restoration efforts do not lose momentum.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Hybrid Operations:
The "Dmitriev" Plan: Reports of a peace plan involving Kirill Dmitriev (RDIF head) (1308Z) are likely intended to bypass traditional diplomatic channels and appeal directly to Western financial/business elites.
Greenland Diversion: Continued focus on US domestic friction regarding Greenland (1307Z, Tsaplienko) remains a key Russian narrative to portray NATO as distracted by "territorial ambitions."
Hostage Narrative: TASS (1320Z) is pushing a narrative that Ukraine is refusing its own citizens in Sumy and "detaining" Kursk residents, aiming to frame UA as indifferent to civilian welfare during the winter crisis.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
RF will continue multi-vector UAV strikes tonight to force Ukrainian AD into high expenditure rates. In the information space, the Kremlin will likely amplify the "Dmitriev" peace plan to create friction between Kyiv and its European supporters ahead of tomorrow's Witkoff-Putin meeting.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
A synchronized kinetic strike on the specific substations where Ukrenergo is currently leaderless and undergoing repairs. Exploiting the temporary lack of top-level technical coordination could result in long-term cascading failures across the national 750kV backbone.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the current interim leadership structure of Ukrenergo following the death of Oleksiy Brekht to assess organizational resilience.
[HIGH] Verify the technical specifications of "riverine drones" mentioned by Russian milbloggers—determine if these are USVs or low-flying UAVs intended for bridge/dam strikes.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Indian oil tanker movements to confirm the volume of the shift from Russian Urals to Middle Eastern grades.
[LOW] Identify the specific origin of the "Dmitriev" peace plan report to determine if it is a genuine diplomatic feeler or a Russian disinformation plant.
