CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FAILURE (1235Z, RBC-UA, HIGH): Kyivstar reports a "full blackout" of services across several oblasts following sustained strikes on the energy grid; this severely degrades civilian and tactical redundant communications.
DIPLOMATIC MANEUVERING (1242Z, Operatsia Z/Bloomberg, MEDIUM): Reports indicate Putin received an updated US-European peace plan in early January; a meeting with US envoy Witkoff is confirmed for tomorrow (Jan 22).
STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION - PEACE COUNCIL (1240Z, Colonelcassad/TASS, MEDIUM): US envoy Witkoff claims 20-35 world leaders have joined a "Peace Council," notably excluding Russia, China, and India at this stage. Israel has confirmed participation (1259Z).
TACTICAL STRIKE - SUMY SECTOR (1236Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH): UA FPV drone units successfully executed a reconnaissance and strike operation against Russian assets in Sumy Oblast.
AERIAL THREAT - SOUTHERN VECTOR (1257Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): New Shahed UAV wave detected transiting toward Zaporizhzhia from the south.
INTERNAL SECURITY - RUSSIA (1233Z, Archangel Spetsnaz, MEDIUM): Russian FSB claims to have neutralized a "terrorist cell" of Central Asian migrants in Ufa; likely used to justify further domestic crackdowns or the new foreign fighter law.
HYBRID NARRATIVE - GREENLAND (1253Z, Два майора, MEDIUM): France has requested NATO exercises in Greenland; Russian milbloggers are attempting to frame this as a source of US-EU friction (1233Z, Rybar).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment remains defined by Russia's "City-Kill" strategy, now expanding from energy infrastructure to the telecommunications layer. The Kyivstar blackout creates a dangerous synchronization of power and communication loss during sub-zero temperatures.
Battlefield Geometry: The FLOT remains largely static, but Ukrainian deep-reconnaissance and FPV strikes in Sumy indicate proactive interdiction of Russian assembly areas.
Weather/Environmental: The sub-zero cold front continues to exacerbate the impact of the 60% energy deficit in Kyiv and the new 87% blackout in Chernihiv.
Critical Infrastructure: The Kyivstar outage (1235Z) is a Tier-1 disruption, likely intended to hinder Ukrainian volunteer logistics and civil defense coordination.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities and Intentions:
Recruitment Deception: RF is utilizing deceptive recruitment schemes, including promising contracts for the "Lugansk NPP" (a non-existent facility), suggesting a continued need to trick personnel into frontline service despite the new foreign fighter law (1234Z, Mobilization News).
Rear Security: The sentencing of General Kirillov’s assassin to life imprisonment (1248Z, TASS) and the Ufa "counter-terror" operation highlight the RF's high sensitivity to internal subversion and partisan activity.
Occupied Territory Control: Expansion of SOBR "Splav" (Rosgvardia) recruitment in Lugansk (1259Z, Colonelcassad) indicates a transition toward long-term paramilitary policing and suppression of dissent in the LPR.
Tactical Changes:
UAV Vectoring: Continued use of southern corridors for Shahed launches toward Zaporizhzhia (1257Z) aims to maintain pressure on Southern Command while AD assets are prioritized for the capital.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UA)
Ukrainian Force Posture:
Air Defense Success: UA Naval Forces confirmed the successful kinetic intercept of a Shahed UAV (1235Z), demonstrating effective point defense by naval assets in coastal or riverine zones.
Asymmetric Strike: The 225th Separate Assault Regiment and other units (Sumy sector) continue to leverage FPV drones to offset Russian mass (1236Z).
Communication Resilience: The Kyivstar blackout will force reliance on Starlink and military-grade radio networks, which may increase the electronic signature of frontline units.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Hybrid Operations:
The "Greenland" Narrative: Russian channels (Rybar) are aggressively promoting a narrative of US-EU escalation over Greenland (1233Z). This is a classic "wedge" operation designed to distract NATO from the Ukrainian theater by highlighting peripheral maritime disputes.
Peace Plan Leaks: Deliberate leaks via Bloomberg and Russian milbloggers regarding a "January Peace Plan" (1242Z) are likely intended to create "negotiation fatigue" within the Ukrainian public and test Western resolve before the Jan 22 Putin-Witkoff meeting.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
RF will sustain the UAV pressure on Zaporizhzhia and the energy grid to maximize leverage ahead of tomorrow's diplomatic contact. Expect increased Russian propaganda focusing on the "Peace Council" to frame Ukraine/the West as the primary obstacles to de-escalation.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
A total failure of the telecommunications backbone (Kyivstar/Lifecell) synchronized with a large-scale missile strike. This would prevent the dissemination of air raid warnings and coordination of emergency services, leading to mass civilian casualties and a breakdown of local military command and control (C2).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Identify the specific technical cause of the Kyivstar blackout—determine if it was a physical strike on data centers, a cyber attack, or a secondary effect of the power grid collapse.
[HIGH] Monitor the movement of Russian 183rd Guards Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment assets (noted in previous daily report) to see if they are redeploying to cover "Peace Plan" negotiation sites or frontline sectors.
[MEDIUM] Confirm the nature of the "Peace Plan" project mentioned by Bloomberg; identify specific territorial or sovereignty concessions being proposed.
[MEDIUM] Verify the status of the "non-existent Lugansk NPP" recruitment—is this a cover for a new specialized technical unit or simply a fraud?
