KINETIC STRIKE - MYKOLAIV (0802Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): Confirmed explosion in Mykolaiv city following ballistic missile threat. Initial assessment suggests impact in the vicinity of previously identified high-speed targets (0801Z).
AERIAL BOMBARDMENT - ZAPORIZHZHIA (0815Z-0819Z, UA Air Force/Vanyek, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched a new wave of KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) strikes targeting Zaporizhzhia. Civilian populations have been ordered to shelters (0818Z).
GROUND ENGAGEMENT - POKROVSK SECTOR (0829Z, UA Source "Hayabusa", MEDIUM): Russian forces are actively attempting to seize the village of Hryshyne (West of Pokrovsk). Combat is ongoing with visual evidence of localized assaults.
UAV INCURSIONS (0805Z-0823Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Multiple Shahed-type UAVs identified on a North-West course through Southern Dnipropetrovsk and Eastern Zaporizhzhia (target areas: Ternuvate and Komyshuvakha).
MODERNIZED ENGINEERING ASSETS (0816Z, TASS/Rostec, MEDIUM): Russian MoD received a new batch of IMR-3M engineering vehicles equipped with upgraded Electronic Warfare (EW) and anti-drone cages.
EQUIPMENT RECOVERY - UKRAINE (0812Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH): Successful extraction of a damaged Leopard 1A5 main battle tank by the 5th Heavy Tank Brigade under fire; vehicle is reported as returned for repair.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo remains high, transitioning from early morning ballistic strikes on port infrastructure (Mykolaiv) to sustained tactical aviation pressure on the Zaporizhzhia and Pokrovsk axes.
Battlefield Geometry: The focus has shifted slightly westward in the Donbas, with Russian forces probing Hryshyne to bypass established defenses around Pokrovsk. In the south, the Russian air campaign (KABs/UAVs) is targeting transit hubs (Ternuvate/Komyshuvakha) to disrupt Ukrainian reinforcement routes.
Infrastructure Status: Critical strain is reported on Ukrainian emergency maintenance crews in Kyiv, with reports of personnel fatalities due to extreme exhaustion (0823Z). This highlights the cumulative effect of the "city-kill" strategy mentioned in previous reports.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities and Intentions:
Engineering Force Multiplication: The delivery of IMR-3M vehicles (0816Z) suggests Russia is preparing for intensified obstacle-clearing operations, likely in the Zaporizhzhia or Donetsk sectors where Ukrainian minefields are dense. The inclusion of factory-standard anti-drone EW indicates a response to the "fiber-optic" and high-frequency FPV threat.
Tactical Aviation: Sustained KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia (0815Z) indicate a lack of sufficient Ukrainian long-range AD in the immediate vicinity to push back RU launch platforms (Su-34/35).
Internal Security:
Counter-Terrorism Narrative: Russian state media (TASS/Colonelcassad, 0821Z) is heavily promoting the arrest of Central Asian nationals in Ufa for planning "terror attacks." Assessment: This is likely used to bolster domestic support for heightened security measures or to justify further crackdowns on migrant labor populations.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UA)
Ukrainian Force Posture:
Equipment Sustainability: The successful recovery of a Leopard 1A5 (0812Z) demonstrates high proficiency in battlefield damage repair (BDR) by the 5th Heavy Tank Brigade, essential for maintaining combat power despite Western supply fluctuations.
Air Defense: UA AD is currently engaged in "leaping" coverage, tracking Shahed UAVs across Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia (0823Z).
Personnel Fatigue: Reports of emergency worker deaths due to overwork (0823Z) indicate a critical vulnerability in the civilian-military support structure during sustained winter bombardment.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Hybrid Operations:
The "Greenland" Disinformation Loop: Pro-Russian channels are now citing a supposed Financial Times (FT) report claiming the US-EU "conflict" over Greenland has killed an $800bn prosperity plan for Ukraine (0803Z). Assessment (LOW CONFIDENCE): This is likely a fabricated or distorted narrative designed to amplify the perception of Western abandonment.
Regional Friction: Russian milbloggers (Alex Parker, 0829Z) are highlighting Azerbaijani aid to Ukraine (generators) to stoke internal Russian resentment regarding Russia's "strategic partners" failing to support border regions like Belgorod.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
Russian forces will continue the KAB/Shahed cycle targeting Zaporizhzhia over the next 12 hours to isolate the frontline from rear-area logistics. In the Donbas, expect intensified infantry-led "meat assaults" on Hryshyne to test UA 5th Tank Brigade's response time.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
A coordinated breakthrough in the Pokrovsk sector (Hryshyne) utilizing the newly delivered IMR-3M engineering vehicles to breach UA defensive lines, coinciding with a total grid collapse in Northern/Central Ukraine due to maintenance fatigue.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine if the explosion in Mykolaiv (0802Z) resulted in damage to port cranes or grain terminals, or if the target was the Halitsynovo AD battery.
[HIGH] Confirm the current status of the village of Hryshyne. Identify which UA units besides the 5th Tank Brigade are operating in the Pokrovsk periphery.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the 183rd Guards Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment in the Baltic (contextual baseline) for any signs of "S-400" redeployment toward the Ukrainian front following their high activity scores.
[LOW] Verify the FT report regarding the $800bn plan; confirm if this is a genuine policy shift or a Russian "active measure."
