BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT - SOUTHERN AXIS (0757Z, UA Air Force/Nikolaevskiy Vanyek, HIGH): Confirmed ballistic launch from occupied Crimea. High-speed targets (assessed X-22 or X-31P) identified tracking toward Mykolaiv, specifically the Halitsynovo/Stanislav area (0758Z-0801Z).
AERIAL BOMBARDMENT - ZAPORIZHZHIA (0747Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has conducted multiple KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) strikes across the Zaporizhzhia region. This follows reported Shahed-type UAV incursions from the south (0733Z).
ZAPORIZHZHIA GROUND ENGAGEMENT (0732Z, MoD Russia/Poddubny, MEDIUM): Russian 35th Army (Vostok Group) claims TOS-1A thermobaric strikes on UA fortified positions. Pro-Russian sources report UA armor maneuvering near the Forward Line of Own Troops (FLOT).
MODERNIZED FPV OPERATIONS - DONETSK (0759Z, NM DNR, HIGH): The Russian 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (ORB) is conducting high-frequency FPV drone strikes in the Mykolaivka, Raiske, and Toretsk sectors, indicating a densification of unmanned assets in the Central Donbas.
"GREENLAND" NARRATIVE ESCALATION (0741Z, Bloomberg/Reuters/TASS, HIGH): Previously assessed as low-level disinformation, reports from Bloomberg and Reuters now confirm French initiatives for NATO exercises in Greenland. Russian state media (Medvedev) is aggressively framing this as a Western concession to the US to maintain support for Ukraine (0734Z).
REAR AREA ATTRITION (0752Z, TASS, HIGH): Casualties from the Ukrainian drone strike in Adygea have risen to 13. This confirms the continued effectiveness of UA deep-strike capabilities against Russian residential/logistics hubs.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has surged in the last hour, characterized by a transition from overnight UAV swarms to morning ballistic and cruise missile strikes (X-22/X-31P) targeting the Mykolaiv/Odesa maritime corridor.
Battlefield Geometry: The Zaporizhzhia sector is seeing a transition from positional defense to active tactical maneuvering. Russian forces are utilizing heavy "area-denial" assets (TOS-1A) to disrupt Ukrainian local counter-attacks.
Weather: Sub-zero temperatures persist, likely driving the Russian MoD's continued focus on energy infrastructure as a "response" to UA deep strikes (Basurin, 0743Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities and Intentions:
Integrated Fire Circles: The use of reconnaissance UAVs (0749Z, Mykolaiv) as spotters for high-speed missiles (X-31P) indicates an improved "sensor-to-shooter" link for Russian coastal and anti-radiation strikes.
Thermobaric Deployment: The deployment of TOS-1A in Zaporizhzhia suggests Russia is attempting to "flush out" UA underground shelters ahead of a potential localized push.
Long-term Militarization: New Russian curriculum changes to teach drone assembly and piloting to schoolchildren (0734Z) signal a strategic commitment to institutionalizing the "Unmanned Systems" workforce for a multi-year conflict.
Internal Security/Logistics:
Elite Purges/Legal Actions: The seizure of 11.9bn rubles in assets from Anatoly Chubais (0739Z) suggests ongoing internal redistribution of wealth and potential "cleansing" of the old reformist elite to fund the war effort.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UA)
Ukrainian Force Posture:
Active Defense (Zaporizhzhia): While Russian sources claim successful strikes, UA sources (OTU Kharkiv, 0744Z) indicate stable operational posture in the north, while the 16th Army Corps remains engaged in defensive actions.
Air Defense: UA AD is currently active over Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia. The presence of reconnaissance drones (0749Z) poses a high risk to stationary AD assets.
Internal Stability: The Prosecutor General’s Office is moving against corruption (Ukrnafta case, 0800Z), essential for maintaining Western donor confidence during the Davos summit.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Hybrid Operations:
The "Greenland" Proposal: This has evolved into a major strategic narrative. Assessment: Russia is leveraging genuine NATO Arctic maneuvers (French-led) to amplify rumors of a "territorial swap" for Ukrainian peace. This is designed to portray Ukraine as a secondary pawn in a larger US-EU-Russia real estate deal.
Moldovan Exit: Rybar’s focus on Moldova’s CIS withdrawal (0738Z) suggests a forthcoming RU information campaign (or kinetic provocation) targeting Chisinau to distract from the Ukrainian front.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
Russian forces will continue the ballistic/KAB pressure on Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia over the next 6 hours to disrupt UA logistics and suppress AD. Expect further Russian claims of "prevented terror attacks" in the rear to justify strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
A coordinated high-speed missile strike (X-22) successfully hitting the Halitsynovo port infrastructure or a major UA C2 hub in Mykolaiv, combined with a TOS-1A-led breakthrough on the Zaporizhzhia FLOT.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm impact of ballistic/high-speed missile strikes in Halitsynovo (0801Z). Identify if the target was port infrastructure or AD batteries.
[HIGH] Verify Russian claims of UA armor build-up in Zaporizhzhia. Are these local counter-attacks or a larger tactical shift?
[MEDIUM] Monitor the movement of the Russian 68th ORB. Their presence in Toretsk suggests a possible intensification of the push toward the H-20 highway.
[LOW] Track the "Uzbekistan Airways" emergency landing in Krasnoyarsk (0754Z) for any signs of sabotage or links to the Ufa "terror cell" narrative.
