REINFORCED UAV WAVE (0232Z, AF ZSU, HIGH): A new group of Shahed-type UAVs has entered Chernihiv Oblast, tracking southwest. This complements the 20+ drones already active, indicating a persistent effort to saturate Air Defense (AD) corridors ahead of strategic missile arrival.
TACTICAL AVIATION SURGE - DONETSK (0232Z, AF ZSU, HIGH): Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in Donetsk Oblast.
TACTICAL AVIATION SURGE - ZAPORIZHZHIA (0220Z, AF ZSU, HIGH): Confirmed KAB launches targeting the Zaporizhzhia sector, likely aimed at frontline fortifications or staging areas.
DOMESTIC CRISIS IN RF FAR EAST (0218Z, TASS/Solodov, HIGH): A major winter disaster/cyclone in Kamchatka has prompted the regional governor to request federal emergency intervention. While geographically remote, this creates a secondary demand for Russian logistics and federal emergency funding.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Kyiv):
The threat to the capital region is escalating. The "New Group" of UAVs (0232Z) moving SW from Chernihiv suggests a multi-vector approach to bypass AD. With the Left Bank of Kyiv already in a total blackout (0148Z), the arrival of these drones likely targets remaining power substations or is intended to force UAF to expend remaining interceptors before the Tu-95MS missile volley reaches the "hot" zone.
2. Eastern Axis (Donbas/Kharkiv):
The use of KABs in Donetsk (0232Z) indicates Russian tactical aviation is operating with relative impunity near the line of contact. This follows previous reports of the 7th Corps DShV holding the line near Pokrovsk; the current KAB strikes are likely an attempt to break that stability.
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro):
KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia (0220Z) suggest a coordinated effort to suppress UAF tactical reserves. This coincides with the movement of drones toward Dnipro (0141Z), creating a complex, multi-level threat environment across the southern central region.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Tactics: The Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) are demonstrating high synchronization between strategic assets (Tu-95MS), long-range attrition assets (Shaheds), and tactical frontline support (KABs).
Course of Action: The enemy is utilizing a "rolling" strike pattern. By maintaining a constant UAV presence over Chernihiv, they fix Northern AD assets, while tactical KABs keep frontline units suppressed, preventing the relocation of mobile AD systems to protect the interior.
Logistics Diversion (RF Interior): The Kamchatka disaster (0218Z) represents a non-kinetic disruption to the Russian administrative apparatus. Intelligence should monitor if Ministry of Emergency Situations (MCHS) resources are diverted from occupied territories to assist in the Far East.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Frontline Innovation: Per the daily report context, UAF continues to utilize fiber-optic FPV drones to mitigate Russian EW in the East. These units remain the most effective counter to localized Russian pushes despite the heavy KAB bombardment.
Defensive Posture: AD units in Chernihiv and Kyiv remain in high-readitude. EOD teams are currently tasked with clearing PTM-3 aerial mines from western rail lines (Rivne), a critical task to ensure the arrival of Western materiel isn't halted by the ongoing air campaign.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Disaster Reporting: TASS is prioritizing the Kamchatka weather disaster, potentially to humanize the domestic situation or distract from the ongoing strategic bombing campaign against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
Operational Silence: There is a notable lack of Russian reporting on the Tu-95MS sortie, suggesting a "silent launch" protocol to maximize the surprise of the cruise missile impact.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Within the next 2–4 hours, the cruise missiles from the 4x Tu-95MS will enter Ukrainian airspace. Expected targets are the energy hubs in Central and Western Ukraine, specifically targeting the transition points where UAF is attempting to stabilize the Kyiv grid.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A simultaneous strike involving cruise missiles and a renewed wave of aerial mining via Shahed drones on Western Ukrainian rail hubs, effectively cutting off the power to the capital while simultaneously severing the logistical supply of Western interceptors and energy repair equipment.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Tracking data for the 0232Z UAV group—determine if they are splitting to target Zhytomyr or continuing toward Kyiv.
[HIGH] Assessment of damage from KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia; determine if any fiber-optic drone manufacturing or staging sites were hit.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Russian federal budget reallocations for the Kamchatka disaster to assess any potential (though unlikely) impact on military funding or logistical priorities.
