STRATEGIC AVIATION SORTIE (0150Z - 0207Z, AF ZSU / Tsapliyenko, HIGH): Four (4) Tu-95MS strategic bombers have taken off from Olenya Air Base and are tracking toward launch positions. This indicates a high probability of a coordinated cruise missile strike within the next 2–4 hours.
MASS UAV CONCENTRATION (0156Z, AF ZSU, HIGH): A large group of over 20 Shahed-type UAVs is currently active over Chernihiv Oblast. Kinetic engagement (Air Defense) is ongoing.
KYIV LEFT BANK POWER GRID COLLAPSE (0148Z, Tsapliyenko / Media, HIGH): Reports confirm the Left Bank of Kyiv is now entirely without electricity, escalating from the previous partial disruptions.
AIR ALERT TERMINATION KYIV (0151Z, KMVA, HIGH): The air raid alert has been cleared for Kyiv city, though this is likely temporary given the strategic bomber activity.
THREAT TO DNIPRO (0141Z, Mykolaivskyi Vanek, HIGH): Two new UAVs detected approaching Dnipro from the direction of Zaporizhzhia.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Kyiv/Chernihiv/Sumy):
Kyiv: While the immediate air alert has cleared, the humanitarian situation has deteriorated with a total blackout on the Left Bank. This follows earlier reports of water supply issues.
Chernihiv: Currently the focal point of the UAV campaign. The presence of 20+ drones suggests an "AD saturation" tactic, likely designed to deplete interceptor stocks or fix AD units in place ahead of the Tu-95MS missile arrival.
2. Eastern Axis (Donbas/Kharkiv):
Donetsk/Kharkiv: (Baseline remains unchanged) High activity of tactical aviation (KABs) reported in the previous sitrep continues to suppress frontline positions.
3. Central/Southern Axis (Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia):
Dnipro: Under active threat from the south. The use of Zaporizhzhia as a transit corridor for drones targeting Dnipro suggests the enemy is exploiting gaps in low-altitude radar coverage along the Dnipro River basin.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Strategic Escalation: The launch of 4x Tu-95MS bombers marks a significant escalation from the localized drone/tactical strikes of the previous hours. This follows the pattern of using prolonged UAV waves to "soften" air defenses before a precision missile strike.
Infrastructure Targeting: The total power failure on Kyiv's Left Bank confirms a successful degradation of the capital's energy node. The intent appears to be the systematic isolation of the city's districts from essential services.
Tactical Synchronization: The enemy is maintaining 20+ drones in Chernihiv while simultaneously launching strategic assets. This forces UAF to make difficult resource allocation decisions between protecting the capital and protecting regional hubs.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: Active combat work is ongoing in Chernihiv. AD units are likely being repositioned or placed on high alert in anticipation of cruise missile launches from the Tu-95MS.
Civilian Protection: All-clear given in Kyiv (0151Z) allows for limited movement and emergency repair windows, though the window is expected to be short.
Information environment / disinformation
Reporting Delay: Russian state sources are currently quiet regarding the Tu-95MS sortie, likely waiting for launch confirmation to begin "missile-terror" propaganda.
Internal Messaging: Ukrainian sources are emphasizing the severity of the Kyiv power outage to prepare the public for a potential multi-day recovery period.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): The Tu-95MS will reach launch lines (likely Caspian Sea or Engels region) within the next 60–90 minutes. A volley of Kh-101 cruise missiles will target energy infrastructure in Central and Western Ukraine, timed to hit as the 20+ drones in Chernihiv continue to distract AD assets.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A "Double-Tap" or multi-axis strike where Tu-95MS launches are synchronized with sea-launched Kalibrs from the Black Sea and Iskander-M ballistic missiles, specifically targeting the Kyiv Reservoir/Vyshhorod node to cause catastrophic utility failure.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine the exact flight path and current location of the 4x Tu-95MS to estimate the Time of Arrival (TOA) of missiles.
[HIGH] Confirm if Black Sea Fleet (BSF) Kalibr-carriers have exited port or are in launch-ready status.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for any "decoys" or specialized EW UAVs within the group of 20+ drones in Chernihiv.
