KYIV CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEGRADATION (0117Z, Klitschko / RBK-UA, HIGH): Water supply disruptions now confirmed on the Left Bank of Kyiv, compounding the previously reported power outages.
MULTI-VECTOR UAV RE-ENTRY (0120Z - 0123Z, AF ZSU / RBK-UA, HIGH): New groups of Shahed-type UAVs have entered Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv oblasts. Simultaneously, drones are active south of Zaporizhzhia and approaching Dnipro from the south.
UNCONFIRMED STRIKE IN VINNYTSIA (0117Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian sources claim two Iskander ballistic missile impacts in Vinnytsia. No official Ukrainian confirmation as of this report.
VYS-HHOROD THREAT (0125Z, AF ZSU, MEDIUM): A lone UAV is tracking over the Kyiv Reservoir toward Vyshhorod. This indicates a potential attempt to target the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant or associated distribution infrastructure.
TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY (0122Z, AF ZSU, HIGH): Guided aerial bomb (KAB) launches confirmed targeting the Donetsk region.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Kyiv/Chernihiv/Sumy):
Kyiv/Vyshhorod: The situation has escalated from a power grid issue to a broader utility crisis (water and electricity) on the Left Bank. The detection of a UAV over the Kyiv Reservoir suggests a shift in targeting toward the city's northern water/power generation axis.
Chernihiv/Sumy: New penetrations of UAV groups indicate the enemy is maintaining a "conveyor" of drones to keep Air Defense (AD) assets saturated and unable to reposition.
2. Eastern Axis (Donbas/Kharkiv):
Donetsk Region: Heavy use of KABs indicates a sustained tactical effort to suppress UAF frontline positions or logistics hubs near the contact line.
Kharkiv: Re-entry of UAV groups suggests the city remains a priority for psychological and infrastructure attrition.
3. Central/Southern Axis (Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia):
Dnipro: UAVs approaching from the south indicate a multi-directional attack profile, likely intended to bypass AD geofencing oriented toward the eastern border.
Zaporizhzhia: Continued drone activity south of the city suggests a focus on tactical rear areas or energy distribution nodes.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Multi-Modal Strike Profile: The enemy is successfully synchronizing lingering UAV presence with localized ballistic strikes (Vinnytsia - unconfirmed) and tactical aviation (KABs). This forces UAF command to distribute AD resources thinly across the entire depth of the country.
Targeting Trends: The focus has shifted from general "infrastructure" to specific "life-support" systems (water/power) in the capital, likely aimed at inducing a humanitarian crisis to pressure the political leadership.
Logistics Context: The reported dismissal of North Korean Vice-Prime Minister Yang Seung Ho (0129Z, TASS) due to industrial failures is a significant data point. While external to the immediate theater, it may signal friction in the RU-DPRK ammunition supply chain, potentially impacting the long-term volume of North Korean ballistic missiles/shells available for these waves.
Friendly activity (UAF)
AD Engagement: Active interception remains underway in at least six oblasts. The focus is shifting toward protecting critical nodes in the Kyiv Reservoir area and restoring utility stability.
Damage Control: Emergency services are managing multi-domain failures (fire, water, power) in Kyiv’s Dniprovskyi district.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Narrative Reinforcement: RU milbloggers (НгП раZVедка, 0121Z) are actively promoting a narrative that Ukrainian AD is responsible for damage to residential high-rises. This is a standard reflexive control tactic to undermine trust in the UAF.
Industrial Distraction: Russian state media (TASS) is emphasizing DPRK internal politics to project an image of "accountability" and "standards" within their strategic partnership, possibly to mask the erratic quality of imported munitions.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV "probing" through the dawn hours to maintain AD alert levels, followed by a surge in BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) drone flights once visibility improves.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated Iskander or Kalibr strike targeting the Kyiv Reservoir/Vyshhorod infrastructure while AD is preoccupied with the lingering Shahed wave.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm/Deny strike in Vinnytsia and identify target type (military vs. energy infrastructure).
[HIGH] Assess the impact of water outages on the Left Bank; determine if this is a direct hit on a pumping station or a secondary effect of the power failure.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the Vyshhorod-bound UAV for intent to strike the Kyiv Hydroelectric Plant.
