ENERGY STABILIZATION MEASURE (0945Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): State companies to increase electricity imports starting tomorrow (Jan 20) to mitigate grid instability following Chernihiv/Kharkiv strikes.
TACTICAL CONFIRMATION - KUPIANSK (0942Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH): Ukrainian "Khartia" Search and Strike Group confirmed to be in control of the city center and the Kupiansk City Council building.
FORMAL TERRITORIAL CLAIMS (0951Z, RU MoD, MEDIUM): Russian MoD officially claims the "liberation" of Novopavlovka (DPR) and Pavlovka (Zaporizhzhia). UNCONFIRMED by visual evidence or UA official sources.
AERIAL THREAT - CHERNIHIV (0958Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): New wave of Russian UAVs (Geran/Shahed) detected heading toward Kholmy, indicating a sustained effort against the northern border region.
DIPLOMATIC HYBRID OP (0940Z, Operation Z/TASS, LOW): Russian state media and pro-war channels are heavily amplifying a claim that Putin has been "invited" to a "Gaza Peace Council" allegedly proposed by Donald Trump.
DOMESTIC RU FINANCIAL REPRESSION (0959Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): Russian banks have reportedly blocked 2-3 million accounts/cards since the start of the year under "anti-fraud" pretenses, likely a measure to control capital flight or fund-raising for dissident activities.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment is defined by a shift in Ukrainian energy strategy toward external reliance while maintaining high-intensity defensive postures in the East and South.
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline in Kupiansk remains resilient despite Russian pressure, with UA forces holding key administrative terrain. However, the Russian claims in Novopavlovka and Pavlovka suggest a concerted effort to prune Ukrainian salients in the South-Donets junction.
Infrastructure: The decision to spike electricity imports (0945Z) confirms that domestic generation in the North (Chernihiv/Sumy) is insufficient to meet demand following last night's strikes.
Weather: Snowy conditions persist across the frontline (0941Z), favoring static defense but complicating the use of wheeled vehicles and FPV drone loitering times.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities & Intentions:
Tactical Innovation: Russian forces are deploying "Zhdan" (Waiter) FPV drones—loitering munitions designed to wait on roads for targets (0941Z). This increases the risk to Ukrainian logistics and CASEVAC on snowy frontline roads.
Offensive Focus: Heavy offensive operations continue in the Krasnoarmeysky (Pokrovsk) direction, with Russian Naval Infantry (Marines) leading assaults despite degrading weather (0943Z).
Psychological Operations: The "Gaza Peace Council" narrative (0940Z) is a high-priority Kremlin information operation designed to frame Putin as a global statesman and capitalize on perceived shifts in US foreign policy.
Logistics & Sustainment:
Financial Controls: The mass blocking of Russian bank accounts (0959Z) indicates internal economic strain and a tightening of the Kremlin's control over the domestic financial environment to sustain the war effort.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Force Posture:
Kupiansk Defense: The presence of the "Khartia" unit in the city council building (0942Z) suggests that Ukrainian command has successfully stabilized the center of the city, countering earlier RU rumors of a breakthrough.
Resource Management: The pivot to increased electricity imports shows high-level coordination between the Ministry of Energy and international partners to prevent a total grid collapse.
Anti-Drone Operations: UA forces continue to encounter and attempt to neutralize "waiting" Russian FPVs, though this remains a high-risk activity (0941Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Propaganda and Disinformation:
The "Trump-Putin Gaza" Narrative: This is currently being used to saturate the media space (RBK-UA, Sternenko, TASS) to suggest a clandestine or emerging RU-US diplomatic axis.
Western Friction: Pro-Russian channels (Colonelcassad) are amplifying reports of Macron's "trade bazooka" against the US and alleged German retreat from Greenland (1000Z-1006Z).
Analytic Judgment: These are distraction narratives intended to undermine Western unity and portray the EU-US relationship as being in a state of "trade war."
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will maintain high-intensity FPV and UAV pressure on Chernihiv to prevent repair of energy objects. In the South, RU will attempt to present visual evidence of their presence in Pavlovka to force UA reserve movements.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): If the Russian claims in Novopavlovka are validated, they may attempt a localized pincer move toward Pokrovsk, utilizing the Naval Infantry units currently active in the sector.
Timeline: Expect increased UAV activity in the Northern sector over the next 6 hours (1600Z). Energy import shifts will begin tomorrow, suggesting a period of high grid vulnerability tonight.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
[CRITICAL] Obtain GEOINT or SIGINT confirmation of RU troop presence in Novopavlovka and Pavlovka to validate or debunk MoD Russia claims.
[HIGH] Identify the specific origin and technical specifications of the "Zhdan" FPV drones to develop effective EW countermeasures.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the impact of increased energy imports on industrial production in Central Ukraine.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
UA Control of Kupiansk Center: HIGH (Video evidence from "Khartia").
Increase in Energy Imports: HIGH (Multiple government-aligned sources).
Novopavlovka/Pavlovka Capture: MEDIUM (Elevated from Low due to formal MoD claim, but lacks visual proof).
Gaza/Greenland Diplomatic Claims: LOW (Assessed as high-level hybrid/propaganda operations).
