MASSIVE GRID ATTACK - CHERNIHIV (0909Z-0927Z, RBK-UA/ASTRA, HIGH): Russian forces struck five energy infrastructure objects in the Chernihiv region overnight. Tens of thousands of consumers are reported without power.
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE - KHARKIV (0920Z-0922Z, Terekhov/TASS, HIGH): Mayor Terekhov confirms four missiles struck a critical infrastructure site in Kharkiv, causing "significant damage."
PRECISION STRIKE - BELBEK, CRIMEA (0916Z, CyberBoroshno, MEDIUM): Ukrainian precision strikes (likely SBU-coordinated) reportedly neutralized a 96L6E radar system (part of the S-400 complex) at Belbek Airfield.
TERRITORIAL CLAIMS - DNR/ZAPORIZHZHIA (0911Z, RU MoD/Two Majors, LOW): Russian MoD claims the capture of Novopavlovka (Donetsk/Center Group) and Pavlovka (Zaporizhzhia/Dnepr Group). UNCONFIRMED by UA sources.
STRATEGIC ATTRITION DATA (0909Z, SBU Alpha, MEDIUM): SBU "Alpha" units report the destruction of Russian integrated air defense systems (IADS) worth $4 billion throughout 2025.
DIPLOMATIC/HYBRID MANEUVER (0931Z-0936Z, TASS/UA sources, LOW): Reports indicate a proposal for Putin to join a "Gaza Peace Council" and continued Russian amplification of US-EU friction regarding Greenland.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The theater of operations is characterized by a high-intensity Russian "City-Kill" campaign targeting the northern and eastern energy nodes, coupled with opportunistic ground assaults in the South and Donbas.
Battlefield Geometry: The front remains fluid. Russian forces are attempting to expand the operational area by pressure on the Chernihiv and Sumy borders (0926Z) while claiming tactical gains in the Zaporizhzhia "hinge" (Pavlovka).
Infrastructure Status: The energy situation in Northern Ukraine is reaching a critical threshold. With five objects hit in Chernihiv and ongoing strikes in Kharkiv and Sumy, the northern grid is facing systemic instability during peak winter temperatures.
Weather: Previous warnings of magnetic storms (Jan 21) remain relevant; however, immediate tactical operations are hindered by snowy, wooded terrain in the Kherson/Dnieper sectors (0938Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities & Intentions:
IADS Vulnerability: Despite massive mobilization and technical surges, the successful strike on the 96L6E radar at Belbek (0916Z) demonstrates that Russian high-tier air defenses remain vulnerable to precision-guided munitions or SOF-led cyber-kinetic strikes.
Northern Pressure: The scale of the Chernihiv energy strike (5 facilities) indicates a shift in focus toward "freezing out" the northern border regions to induce civilian displacement and complicate UA logistics in the Sumy-Chernihiv axis.
Ground COURSE OF ACTION (COA): RU forces are claiming to push UA units back from the Dnieper right bank in Kherson (0938Z). This is likely an effort to stabilize the flank before winter mud settles or to prevent UA reconnaissance-in-force operations.
Logistics & Sustainment:
Aviation Sustainability: Reports of Russia returning 25-year-old Boeing 747s to service (0909Z) suggest severe strain on domestic and military-adjacent logistics airframes due to sanctions and high operational tempo.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Force Posture:
Strategic Counter-IADS: Ukrainian forces (SBU/GUR) continue a highly effective campaign against Russian eyes (radars) and teeth (S-300/400). The neutralization of the Belbek radar directly supports future long-range strike windows into Crimea.
Defensive Operations: UA air defenses remain active over border regions, with Russia claiming to have intercepted 4 drones over Belgorod/border zones (0938Z).
Moral & Internal Stability: The Ukrainian Prosecutor General continues anti-corruption operations (25m UAH tax evasion in Zakarpattia), signaling the maintenance of state functions despite the energy crisis.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Propaganda and Disinformation:
The "Greenland/Gaza" Narrative: Russian channels (Alex Parker/Colonelcassad) are heavily saturating the information space with "Trump-Greenland" friction (0914Z, 0920Z) and the "Gaza Peace Council" (0931Z).
Analytic Judgment: This is a classic "noise" operation designed to portray Russia as a global diplomatic arbiter (Gaza) while emphasizing perceived instability in Western alliances (Denmark/US).
Humanitarian Signaling: The release of a POW exchange list by RU Ombudsman Moskalkova (0927Z) is likely intended to soften Russia's international image amid the intensified grid strikes.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russia will continue the systematic degradation of the Chernihiv/Sumy energy sector. Ground activity will remain focused on small-unit infiltration near Pokrovsk and Novopavlovka to fix Ukrainian reserves.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A confirmed Russian breakthrough in Pavlovka (Zaporizhzhia) could allow RU forces to bypass Velyka Novosilka from the south, threatening the entire southern Donbas defense line.
Timeline: High-intensity missile/UAV threats to Kharkiv and Chernihiv are expected to persist through the next 12-24 hours as Russia attempts to "complete" the grid collapse in those sectors.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm visual evidence of Russian presence in Pavlovka and Novopavlovka. Determine if these are "grey zone" entries or established control.
[HIGH] Assess the functional status of the Crimean bridge and Belbek airfield following the radar strike. Determine if RU aviation assets are being relocated.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the movement of Russian 39th units (Kherson) mentioned in personal UA updates (0933Z) for signs of localized counter-offensive preparations.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
Chernihiv/Kharkiv Energy Strikes: HIGH (Multiple official and local reports).
Belbek 96L6E Radar Strike: MEDIUM (Visual evidence via CyberBoroshno, but RU confirmation pending).
Novopavlovka/Pavlovka Capture: LOW (Uncorroborated RU MoD claims).
US-Danish Friction (Greenland): LOW (Assessed as Russian Hybrid/PsyOp).
