UAF TACTICAL ADVANCE (0808Z, RBK-UA/DSHV, MEDIUM): The 132nd Reconnaissance Battalion (7th Corps, Air Assault Forces) reports a 900-meter advance within 24 hours on the Pokrovsk axis. Clearing operations are ongoing.
NEW OPERATIONAL AXIS: DOBROPILLYA (0755Z, Operation Z, MEDIUM): Russian forces have intensified operations toward Dobropillya, utilizing "Scalpel" loitering munitions to target UAF artillery positions. This indicates a widening of the offensive north of the Pokrovsk sector.
EXPANDED KAB OPERATIONS (0742Z–0746Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has expanded guided aerial bomb (KAB) strikes beyond Kharkiv to include the Donetsk and eastern Dnipropetrovsk regions.
WEEKLY ATTRITION STATISTICS (0754Z, Zelenskiy/Operativno ZSU, HIGH): Official Ukrainian data confirms the scale of the "City-Kill" campaign: 1,300+ OWA-UAVs, ~1,050 KABs, and 29 missiles launched by RF forces in the last seven days.
DEEP STRIKE BDA - BESLAN (0751Z, Voenkor Kotenok, HIGH): Confirmation of drone impact in Beslan (North Ossetia). While RF sources claim damage to civilian housing and three casualties, the depth of the strike (~700km from the front) confirms UAF capability to threaten the Mozdok/Beslan military logistics cluster.
TARGETING OF UAV INFRASTRUCTURE (0759Z–0804Z, NM DNR/MoD Russia, MEDIUM): RF forces are specifically targeting UAF drone control infrastructure, reporting strikes on antennas and command posts in Raiske, Novoandriivka (Donetsk), and forest belts in Zaporizhzhia.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Kharkiv: Persistent KAB strikes from the east continue (0742Z). This remains a primary "City-Kill" zone aimed at infrastructure collapse.
RF Rear: "Drone danger" alerts were lifted in the Bryansk region (0744Z), suggesting a temporary pause in UAF deep-strike activity in the north.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Pokrovsk/Dobropillya):
Pokrovsk Axis: Significant localized UAF success. The 900m advance by the 132nd Recon Battalion (0808Z) suggests Russian lines may be overextended or thinned to support other axes.
Dobropillya Direction: Russian forces are using "Scalpel" loitering munitions to suppress UAF artillery (0755Z). This is a likely effort to fix UAF reserves and prevent them from reinforcing the Pokrovsk or Kurakhove sectors.
Kostiantynivka: UNCONFIRMED reports indicate RF movement toward the Klyban-Byk Reservoir (0804Z). If confirmed, this threatens the southern flank of the Kostiantynivka defensive node.
Donetsk Axis (Tactical): UAF successfully neutralized an RF infiltration group attempting to move through reed beds/vegetation (0747Z).
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zaporizhzhia: RF artillery (Gvozdika) is prioritizing the destruction of UAF UAV command posts in forested areas (0804Z). This correlates with recent RF losses to FPV drones in the sector.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Loitering Munition Adaptation: The deployment of "Scalpel" drones in the Dobropillya direction indicates an adaptation in Russian tactical C4ISR, moving away from massed artillery toward precision suppression of UAF fire support.
Aerial Volume: With 1,050 KABs launched weekly, Russia is maintaining a sortie rate that current UAF AD assets are struggling to intercept at the launch point.
C2 Targeting: A concerted RF effort is underway to blind UAF at the tactical level by prioritizing drone antennas and C2 nodes (Raiske/Novoandriivka).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Active Defense/Counter-Assault: The 132nd DSHV's 900m gain in Pokrovsk is the most significant tactical gain reported this week, indicating that despite infrastructure pressure, UAF frontline units retain offensive lethality.
Grid Resilience: President Zelenskyy emphasized that repair crews are working 24/7 in "severe weather conditions" to restore power (0753Z). This is critical for maintaining internal stability and signal processing for military logistics.
Information environment / disinformation
Geopolitical Exploitation (0746Z–0806Z, Colonelcassad/Alex Parker, MEDIUM): Russian propaganda is heavily pivoting to exploit potential US-EU trade tensions (Trump tariffs) and internal EU budget disputes. The narrative aims to frame Western aid as an "unsustainable debt" to discourage Ukrainian morale.
Refugee Discrediting: Reports of a Ukrainian refugee being forced to repay aid in Switzerland are being amplified to create resentment among European host populations (0800Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continuation of KAB strikes on Kharkiv, Donetsk, and eastern Dnipropetrovsk. Increased RF loitering munition activity in the Dobropillya sector to prepare for ground assaults.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF exploitation of the reported movement near the Klyban-Byk Reservoir to threaten a breakthrough toward Kostiantynivka, potentially bypassing the main UAF trench lines.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Pokrovsk BDA: Verify the exact location of the 900m UAF advance to determine if it has successfully disrupted RF jump-off points.
[HIGH] Dobropillya Force Composition: Identify if the "Scalpel" drone usage is a precursor to a mechanized push or merely an attritional tactic.
[MEDIUM] Klyban-Byk Status: Confirm RF presence near the reservoir (0804Z claim) via satellite or drone reconnaissance to assess the threat to Kostiantynivka.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
UAF Tactical Gains (DSHV): MEDIUM (Awaiting secondary confirmation).
