CRITICAL LOGISTICAL DISRUPTION (0737Z, RBK-UA/DPSU, HIGH): The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine reports a temporary suspension of freight truck processing at the Polish border. This impacts the primary ground line of communication (GLOC) for Western aid and commercial exports.
EXPANDED COMBAT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (0708Z, GSZSU/Liveuamap, HIGH): Official reporting confirms intensive clashes across three main axes: Oleksandrivka (towards Vyshneve/Sosnivka), Orikhiv (near Prymorske), and Huliaipole (six specific settlements including Dorozhnyanka and Varvarivka).
RENEWED KAB STRIKES ON NE KHARKIV (0712Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched a fresh wave of guided aerial bombs (KAB) targeting the northeastern Kharkiv region, likely supporting the push from the captured Kupyansk sector.
DEEP RECONNAISSANCE/STRIKE UAVs (0725Z–0737Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Multiple Russian OWA-UAVs are currently active over Kherson (from the East), Dnipropetrovsk (Nikopol heading toward Kryvyi Rih), and eastern Kharkiv (heading toward Shevchenkove).
GRID INSTABILITY IN OCCUPIED ZAPORIZHZHIA (0730Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Russian-installed officials claim 213,000 subscribers are without power following alleged UAF strikes. This suggests UAF is successfully targeting the energy architecture supporting Russian logistics in the south.
INTERNAL RF INCIDENT (0709Z, TASS, MEDIUM): UAV debris reported on a multi-story building in Beslan (North Ossetia), resulting in three casualties. This indicates UAF long-range assets are penetrating deep into the Russian rear, likely targeting regional military infrastructure.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv):
Sumy: Remains under UAV surveillance; one drone detected approaching from the northeast (0730Z).
Kharkiv: Fresh KAB strikes (0712Z) targeting the northeast outskirts suggest an attempt to disrupt UAF reinforcements moving toward the Kupyansk/Oskil line. UAV activity near Shevchenkove (0737Z) indicates reconnaissance of deeper logistical nodes.
2. Eastern Sector (Lyman/Kostiantynivka/Donetsk):
Kostiantynivka: While the previous sitrep noted pressure on Rusyn Yar, the current focus has shifted to maintaining defensive integrity against persistent ground assaults.
Donetsk Axis: New reports of clashes near Vyshneve and Zlahoda (0708Z) indicate the RF is widening its frontage in the Oleksandrivka direction to pressure the flanks of the Pokrovsk-Kurakhove defensive pocket.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zaporizhzhia (Orikhiv/Huliaipole): Significant intensity increase. Clashes in Prymorske (Orikhiv) and a multi-settlement push toward Varvarivka and Zelene suggest a Russian effort to bypass the Huliaipole stronghold and reach the H-08 highway.
Kherson: Combat reported near the Antonivskiy bridge (0708Z). This remains a localized attritional zone, but the presence of an incoming UAV from the East (0725Z) suggests a coordinated strike/recon mission against UAF positions in the delta.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: Russia is moving beyond "meat assaults" to a more coordinated air-land integration. The use of KABs in NE Kharkiv while simultaneously pushing ground forces in the South indicates a high-tempo effort to overwhelm UAF command and control.
Infrastructure Targeting: RF is capitalizing on "city-kill" tactics in Kharkiv while complaining of UAF reciprocal strikes on the Zaporizhzhia grid. This suggests a phase of mutual infrastructure attrition, though Russia holds the advantage in aerial volume.
Logistics Sustainment: The surge at the GRAU Missile Arsenal (noted in previous daily) is now manifesting in the sustained KAB and UAV waves observed this morning.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Battery/Deep Strike: UAF appears to be targeting energy infrastructure in occupied Zaporizhzhia to degrade Russian electronic warfare and drone control capabilities.
Defensive Posture: The 93rd Mechanized and other veteran units continue to conduct active defense, though the suspension of processing at the Polish border (0737Z) creates a critical future risk for ammunition and spare parts replenishment.
Morale/Communication: DSHV (Airborne) units released footage of successful night operations (0726Z), likely to counter the "defeatism" narratives identified in the previous sitrep.
Information environment / disinformation
Western Support Narrative (0733Z-0739Z, FT/TASS/Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Russian and pro-Russian channels are amplifying EU internal divisions (Orban's budget comments) and uncertainty regarding the Trump "Peace Council" to frame Ukrainian resistance as futile.
Logistical Sabotage Rumors: The border closure with Poland is being framed in some circles as "Western abandonment," though DPSU attributes it to technical or administrative processing issues.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued KAB strikes on Kharkiv and Sumy. Ground pressure will intensify on the Huliaipole-Dobropillya axis as RF attempts to exploit the gap in the Zaporizhzhia line.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated multi-axis UAV/Missile strike tonight, utilizing the "reload" period identified by SAR data, targeting remaining substations in Central Ukraine to trigger a total blackout.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Border Status: Determine the specific cause of the freight suspension at the Polish border (Technical failure vs. political blockade).
[HIGH] Zaporizhzhia Grid BDA: Confirm the extent of power outages in occupied territories to assess UAF's ability to degrade RF C2.
[HIGH] Beslan UAV Target: Identify the intended target in Beslan (likely the local airfield or military garrison) to confirm UAF's deep-strike penetration depth.
