RENEWED KAB STRIKES ON SUMY/DONETSK (0642Z–0658Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Russian aviation has launched fresh waves of KAB (guided aerial bombs) targeting the Sumy and Donetsk regions, following the overnight UAV saturation.
WIDENING OF KAB TARGETING RADIUS (0708Z, GSZSU/Liveuamap, HIGH): Confirmed airstrikes hit Rohizne (Sumy), Dibrova (Dnipropetrovsk), and ten separate settlements in Zaporizhzhia, including Huliaipole and Zaliznychne. This indicates an expansion of the aerial offensive beyond the energy grid to tactical rear-area logistics.
INTENSIFIED ENGAGEMENTS IN KOSTIANTYNIVKA DIRECTION (0708Z, GSZSU, HIGH): Clashes reported across eight separate settlements (Oleksandro-Shultyne, Scherbynivka, etc.) and four additional axis headings. This suggests a concerted effort to bypass existing defensive lines toward Ivanopillya.
LYMAN SECTOR PRESSURE (0708Z, GSZSU, HIGH): Active engagements reported near Drobysheve and Lyman itself, indicating a multi-pronged push toward the critical rail hub.
RF INTERNAL LOSS CORROBORATION (0658Z, Butusov Plus, MEDIUM): Video evidence from Russian personnel confirms catastrophic losses (entire units "200") in dugout positions due to tank fire, likely in the Southern or Eastern sectors.
RF DRONE INTERCEPTION CLAIM (0645Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian MoD claims the interception of 63 Ukrainian OWA-UAVs overnight. This is UNCONFIRMED and currently lacks visual verification of targets hit or wreckage.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv):
Sumy/Chernihiv: Fresh OWA-UAVs (Shahed-type) detected entering Chernihiv via Snovsk (0658Z) on a SW course toward Kyiv/Central Ukraine. Sumy remains under KAB pressure (0642Z).
Kharkiv (South Slobozhansky): Heavy fighting continues in Vovchansk and Vovchanski Khutory. Clashes toward Kruhle suggest RF is attempting to widen the bridgehead established during the winter push (GSZSU, 0708Z).
Kostiantynivka Axis: This is currently the most active ground sector. Engagements near Rusyn Yar and towards Sofiyivka indicate the RF is attempting to exploit the gap between Bakhmut and Toretsk (GSZSU, 0708Z).
Lyman Axis: RF forces are pressing from Myrne and Zarichne toward the city of Lyman and Drobysheve. This represents a high-intensity effort to collapse the defensive line on the east bank of the Oskil/Siverskyi Donets (GSZSU, 0708Z).
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk):
Zaporizhzhia: Widespread Russian airstrikes (10+ locations) suggest a shaping operation. Russian 2S1 "Gvozdika" units are specifically targeting UAF drone control points in tree lines (Voin DV, 0700Z), attempting to degrade UAF's FPV superiority.
Dnipropetrovsk: Rare KAB strike reported in Dibrova (0708Z), indicating Russian tactical aviation is pushing further into the Ukrainian rear than previously observed.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptations:
KAB/UAV Integration: Russia is using OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) to map AD positions and then immediately following up with KAB strikes on detected logistics hubs (Sumy/Zaporizhzhia).
Artillery Focus on EW/UAV: RF artillery is prioritizing UAF drone operators over infantry positions in the Zaporizhzhia sector (Voin DV, 0700Z), likely to facilitate the mechanized push mentioned in previous reports.
Logistics and Sustainment:
Logistical Vulnerability: Despite the push, reports of high casualties in dugouts (Butusov Plus, 0658Z) suggest that RF forward units remain vulnerable to UAF armor-led counter-attacks when they attempt to consolidate gains.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and reporting KAB/UAV trajectories. There is a clear pattern of preemptive warnings for the Sumy and Donetsk regions.
Civic Morale: Nationwide observance of the minute of silence (0900 local) remains a high-priority psychological consolidation tool (GSZSU, 0659Z; Zaporizhzhia OVA, 0657Z).
Defensive Resilience: UAF continues to hold the line in Kupyansk (Petropavlivka) and Kostiantynivka despite high-volume RF assaults.
Information environment / disinformation
"Donbas Cession" Narrative (0641Z, Operatsiya Z/Die Welt, LOW): Pro-Russian channels are amplifying a German media report claiming Ukrainian MPs are willing to trade Donbas for a ceasefire. This is assessed as a Psychological Operation (PSYOP) intended to coincide with the infrastructure strikes to induce defeatism.
TCC Targeting Narratives (0659Z, Basurin, LOW): Coordinated distribution of "TCC attacking elderly" videos continues, aimed at undermining mobilization efforts.
External Distraction (0707Z, Tsaplienko/Bloomberg, MEDIUM): Reports of a "Trump Peace Council" requiring $1B entry fees are circulating, likely contributing to uncertainty regarding future Western support.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Sumy to prevent UAF from repositioning reserves. Increased Russian ground pressure on the Lyman-Drobysheve axis.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Expansion of KAB strikes further into Dnipropetrovsk (following the Dibrova strike) to interdict GLOCs supporting the entire Southern and Eastern fronts.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] BDA Dibrova/Zaporizhzhia: Determine if the airstrikes targeted specific Western-supplied equipment or fuel depots.
[HIGH] Kostiantynivka Penetration: Verify if RF forces have achieved any physical breaches in the Rusyn Yar or Sofiyivka directions.
[MEDIUM] 63 UAV Interception: Corroborate Russian claims of intercepted drones to assess if UAF has launched a retaliatory strike on Russian airbases or energy infrastructure.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
Tactical Engagement Locations (GSZSU): HIGH (Official military sourcing).
KAB/UAV Trajectories: HIGH (UA Air Force tracking).
"Donbas Cession" Political Rumors: LOW (Single source amplification, high propaganda utility).
