Situation Report

Situation Update (0240Z 18 JAN 26)

Key updates since last sitrep

• KAB STRIKES ON ZAPORIZHZHIA (0236Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast, signaling a shift from long-range saturation to tactical fire support for ground operations.
• TERMINATION OF BRYANSK MISSILE ALERT (0215Z, AV Bogomaz, HIGH): The missile danger in Bryansk Oblast has been cleared, suggesting the immediate threat from UAF counter-strikes or SEAD activity has subsided.
• PENZA OBLAST AIRSPACE REOPENED (0235Z, Gov. Melnichenko, HIGH): "Plan Kover" (Carpet), which restricts airspace due to unidentified flying objects (typically drones), has been canceled in Penza Oblast. This indicates a previous deep-penetration UAF UAS threat that has either been neutralized or exited the area.
• KHARKIV RESIDENTIAL CASUALTIES (0221Z, ASTRA/Mayor, HIGH): Confirmed kinetic impact on a residential building in Kharkiv; 1 KIA, 2 WIA. This reinforces the "City-Kill" assessment from the Daily Report.
• TACTICAL CLAIM: KRASNOARMIYSK (0212Z, TASS/RF MoD, LOW): RF claims destruction of a UAF strongpoint and artillery near Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk sector). UNCONFIRMED.

Operational picture (by sector)

Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Stepnohirsk): The operational focus has shifted to tactical aviation. The launch of KABs (0236Z) likely targets the 93rd Mechanized Brigade's ambush positions or logistics nodes supporting the H-08 highway. This follows the previous report's confirmation of the Zhovtneve breach.

Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmiysk): RF MoD is reporting tactical gains near Krasnoarmiysk (0212Z). While unconfirmed, this aligns with the RF's objective to sever the rail links between the Donbas and Central Ukraine. The use of video footage in their propaganda indicates an attempt to demonstrate precision capabilities.

Northern Sector (Kharkiv): The sector remains under a "City-Kill" profile. The strike on a residential building (0221Z) continues the pattern of psychological and physical attrition against the civilian population to force a humanitarian crisis.

RF Deep Rear (Penza/Bryansk): The activation and subsequent cancellation of "Plan Kover" in Penza (0235Z) is significant. Penza is located approximately 600km from the Ukrainian border, indicating UAF's continued capability to project power into the RF's middle-rear, likely targeting logistics or C2 associated with the GRAU Missile Arsenal surge noted in SAR data.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Tactical Adaptation: Following the earlier wave of OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) and ballistic alerts, the RF is now employing KABs. This transition suggests that the earlier long-range strikes were intended to fix UAF Air Defense (AD) assets, allowing tactical Su-34/35 platforms to approach the Zaporizhzhia frontline with reduced risk of engagement by medium-range systems.

Information Ops & Distraction: Russian regional channels (Khabarovsk Police, 0230Z) continue to push domestic "white noise" to maintain a veneer of normalcy in the Far East, while state media (TASS) focuses heavily on tactical successes to offset news of alerts in Bryansk and Penza.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Deep Strike Operations: The alerts in Penza and Bryansk strongly suggest UAF is maintaining a high tempo of deep-strike operations. The goal is likely to disrupt the "Reload-and-Surge" pattern identified at the GRAU Missile Arsenal (SAR Score 33.72) before the anticipated massive missile wave early next week.

Defensive Posture: UAF AF continues to provide timely early warning for KAB and ballistic threats. However, the confirmed hit in Kharkiv (0221Z) highlights the difficulty of intercepting low-altitude or high-speed munitions in urban environments already weakened by infrastructure strikes.

Information environment / disinformation

Political Framing: Reports regarding Trump’s "Peace Council" (0228Z) are being leveraged in the Ukrainian information space. This reflects anxiety over future US aid and is likely being monitored by RF actors to calibrate their "compellence" strategy—hitting infrastructure harder to force Ukraine into a "Peace Council" from a position of weakness.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will continue KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia and the Stepnohirsk breach to facilitate mechanized movement toward the H-08 highway.
• MDCOA: A lull in UAS/Ballistic activity over the next 6 hours as RF re-arms for a coordinated morning "infrastructure decapitation" strike, potentially targeting NPP-related substations as identified in the Daily Report.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [HIGH] Penza Target Identification: Identify the specific target of the UAS activity that triggered "Plan Kover" in Penza (e.g., fuel depots, rail junctions, or military manufacturing).
2. [MEDIUM] BDA Kharkiv: Confirm if the residential strike (0221Z) was the intended target or a result of AD interception/malfunction.
3. [LOW] Krasnoarmiysk Verification: Geolocate RF MoD footage (0212Z) to determine if the "strongpoint" destroyed is a primary or secondary defensive line.

CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:

• KAB Launches (Zaporizhzhia): HIGH (UAF AF source).
• Kharkiv Casualties: HIGH (Local official/independent media).
• RF Tactical Success (Krasnoarmiysk): LOW (Unconfirmed MoD claim).

//REPORT ENDS//