Situation Report

Situation Update (0209Z 18 JAN 26)

Key updates since last sitrep

• BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (0149Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Active threat of ballistic missile usage from the eastern vector; Zaporizhzhia and eastern oblasts are under immediate alert.
• WESTERN UKRAINE UAS THREAT (0141Z, UAF AF, HIGH): OWA-UAV (Shahed-type) detected approaching Khmelnytskyi from the east; likely targeting logistics or airfield infrastructure.
• CROSS-BORDER COUNTER-STRIKE (0158Z-0209Z, Bryansk Governor, MEDIUM): RF officials in Bryansk Oblast have declared both "UAV danger" and "Missile danger," indicating potential UAF deep-strike or counter-battery activity.
• PAVLOHRAD TARGETING (0207Z, UAF AF, HIGH): New UAS vector identified moving toward Pavlohrad, a critical rail and logistics junction for the Southern and Eastern fronts.
• DIMINISHING OWA-UAV VOLUME (0206Z, Nikolaevsky Vanyek, MEDIUM): Reports indicate a dwindling number of active "Shaheds" remaining in the current wave, suggesting the attack is entering a transition phase.

Operational picture (by sector)

Western Sector (Khmelnytskyi): The threat has expanded westward. A lone OWA-UAV is confirmed on approach to Khmelnytskyi (0141Z). This follows the pattern of using low-volume UAS waves to fix Air Defense (AD) assets in the rear before potential ballistic follow-ups.

Central/Eastern Sector (Pavlohrad/Zaporizhzhia): Pavlohrad is now a confirmed axis of attack (0207Z). This is operationally significant as Pavlohrad serves as the primary distribution hub for the 93rd Mechanized Brigade and other units holding the line against the Stepnohirsk breach. Simultaneously, a ballistic alert (0149Z) covers this entire region, suggesting a synchronized UAS/Ballistic "high-low" strike profile.

Cross-Border/RF Rear (Bryansk): For the first time in this reporting period, the RF rear is under pressure. The escalation from UAS danger (0158Z) to Missile danger (0209Z) in Bryansk suggests UAF may be conducting suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) or striking launch sites used for the Shostka/Sumy attacks reported earlier.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Ballistic Integration: The transition from UAS-only to a combined Ballistic/UAS threat indicates the RF is moving to the "kinetic climax" of this night's operation. By saturating the air picture with "mopeds" (Shaheds), they aim to deplete AD magazines or force UAF radars to remain active, providing targets for anti-radiation missiles or ballistic strikes.

Tactical Information Operations: Russian state media (TASS) and mil-bloggers (Colonelcassad) are attempting to flood the information space with non-kinetic topics—specifically US political branding and next-gen weaponry (NGSRI)—to distract from the ongoing operational pressure or to project an image of strategic normalcy despite alerts in Bryansk (0150Z-0203Z).

Friendly activity (UAF)

Air Defense Management: UAF AF is managing multiple vectors simultaneously. The detection of a single UAS at Khmelnytskyi (0141Z) suggests high-fidelity tracking. Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are likely being preserved for UAS intercepts while high-tier systems (Patriot/S-300) are being reserved for the ballistic threat (0149Z).

Counter-Strike Operations: The missile alert in Bryansk (0209Z) strongly suggests UAF is not merely defending but is actively engaging RF launch platforms or C2 nodes in the border regions to disrupt the "City-Kill" infrastructure campaign.

Information environment / disinformation

Diversionary Narratives:

• Economic/Political: TASS reporting on "Trump-branded caviar" (0150Z) is a classic distraction technique, aiming to link Russian commerce to high-level US politics.
• Technical/Military: Discussion of the US NGSRI (0203Z) serves to frame the conflict within a broader "NATO-Russia" technological race, potentially to justify the high attrition rates of Russian equipment by emphasizing the "superiority" of Western-backed threats.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will execute 1-3 ballistic strikes targeting logistics in Pavlohrad or Zaporizhzhia within the next 2 hours. UAS activity will cease by 0400Z as the current wave is neutralized.
• MDCOA (Most Dangerous): The ballistic threat is a precursor to a wider "infrastructure decapitation" strike involving Tu-95MS bombers (not yet detected, but possible based on SAR data from the Daily Report) targeting NPP substations.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [CRITICAL] Launch Identification: Determine the exact launch sites in the RF Eastern Military District for the ballistic threat (0149Z) to facilitate counter-battery fire.
2. [HIGH] Bryansk Impact: Monitor for BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) in Bryansk to confirm if the missile alert (0209Z) resulted from a successful UAF strike on RF AD or launch complexes.
3. [MEDIUM] Pavlohrad Defense: Confirm if the Pavlohrad UAS (0207Z) is a "decoy" (carbon fiber, no warhead) or a kinetic variant, as this affects the prioritization of AD assets near the H-08 highway.

CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:

• Ballistic Threat: HIGH (Multiple official UAF sources).
• Bryansk Missile Danger: MEDIUM (Confirmed by RF official, but nature of threat—UAF strike vs. AD malfunction—is unclear).
• Khmelnytskyi UAS: HIGH (Corroborated by AF and OSINT).

//REPORT ENDS//