Situation Update (0139Z 18 JAN 26)
Key updates since last sitrep
- RE-EMERGENCE OF UAS THREAT – SHOSTKA (0118Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Strike drones (Shahed-type) detected in northern Sumy Oblast, specifically targeting the Shostka area.
- NEW TECH DEPLOYMENT – "MIKHALYCH" SUPPLY DRONE (0118Z, TASS, MEDIUM): RF is testing a new logistics UAS designed for "kill-zone" resupply, indicating tactical adaptation to UAF FPV dominance in the "last mile."
- REAR-AREA LOGISTICS INJECTION (0129Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Pro-Russian organization "MOO VECHE" confirmed delivery of tactical gear (vests) and food to a frontline unit. (UNCONFIRMED location).
- CONTINUED UAS ALERTS (0125Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): UAF Air Force maintains active warnings for strike drones despite previous "all clear" signals in other sectors.
Operational picture (by sector)
North-Eastern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv):
The operational focus has shifted to Shostka (0118Z). This follows the heavy KAB strikes (0039Z-0049Z) reported in the previous sitrep. The presence of OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) over Shostka—a critical industrial hub for chemicals and munitions—suggests a multi-vector attempt to degrade UAF production capacity. While Kyiv remains "all clear," the NE sector is currently the primary kinetic zone.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Stepnohirsk):
No new tactical movements reported in the last 30 minutes. However, the announcement of the "Mikhalych" supply drone (0118Z) is highly relevant here, where RF forces are attempting to exploit the Zhovtneve/Pryluki breach but face severe attrition from UAF FPV units (Daily Report context).
Central/Western Sector:
Quiet. Air defense threats to Kyiv and Khmelnytskyi have not re-emerged since the 0058Z de-escalation, though UAF remains on alert for "residual" UAS.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation - "Last Mile" Logistics:
The testing of the "Mikhalych" drone (0118Z) represents a critical RF effort to bypass the "kill-zone" (the 2-5km zone where UAF FPVs typically interdict Russian supply vehicles).
- Assessment: If successful, this reduces the logistics burden on "meat assaults" and allows isolated Russian units to sustain defensive positions for longer periods under fire.
Sustained Pressure on Shostka:
The 0118Z UAS detection confirms that Shostka remains a priority target. The RF is likely using a "loiter-and-strike" tactic, waiting for UAF AD to reveal positions or for the tactical aviation (KAB) dust to settle before pushing the final UAS wave into industrial targets.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense and Monitoring:
- UAF AF continues to provide high-fidelity tracking of "residual" UAS threats in the north.
- Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are likely re-deploying to the Shostka vector to intercept the 0118Z wave without depleting expensive interceptor missiles.
Information environment / disinformation
Technological Optimism:
Russian state media (TASS) and military bloggers (Colonelcassad) are pivoting toward a narrative of "technological resilience." By highlighting "Mikhalych" and "VECHE" humanitarian aid, they aim to:
- Counter reports of high attrition and equipment shortages.
- Signal to the Russian domestic audience that the "SVO" is being sustained by both innovation and volunteerism.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA (Most Likely): Kinetic activity will remain concentrated in the Shostka/Sumy sector. UAF will likely neutralize the 0118Z UAS wave using ground-based MFGs.
- MDCOA (Most Dangerous): The Shostka UAS are a reconnaissance-in-force. If they identify gaps in the Sumy AD bubble, a follow-on strike by Iskander-M or additional KAB-500/1500 sorties could target the munitions plants within the next 3-6 hours.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [HIGH] Technical Specs: SIGINT/ELINT focus on the control frequencies of the "Mikhalych" drone to prepare electronic warfare (EW) countermeasures.
- [MEDIUM] Logistics Mapping: Identify the unit receiving "MOO VECHE" aid (0129Z) to determine which sector is receiving priority tactical resupply (likely the Stepnohirsk breach).
- [LOW] Shostka BDA: Real-time monitoring for any thermal anomalies or explosions in the Shostka industrial zone following the 0118Z alert.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
- Shostka UAS Presence: HIGH (UAF AF confirmed).
- Mikhalych Drone Deployment: MEDIUM (TASS report; likely in testing, not wide-scale fielding).
- Aid Delivery Impact: LOW (Single-source mil-blogger; scale is likely platoon-level only).
//REPORT ENDS//
