KAB STRIKES – SUMY OBLAST (0039Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in Sumy Oblast.
KAB STRIKES – KHARKIV OBLAST (0049Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has expanded KAB strikes to Kharkiv Oblast, indicating a high-intensity tactical aviation surge in the NE vector.
AIR ALARM TERMINATION – KYIV (0057Z, KMVA, HIGH): Air defense threat to the capital has temporarily abated; "All Clear" (Відбій) signaled for Kyiv city.
GENERAL THEATER DE-ESCALATION (0058Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Regional air alarms are being lifted across central and western sectors, indicating the primary UAS wave has likely been neutralized or has exited controlled airspace.
RESIDUAL UAS THREAT (0101Z, Nikolaevskiy Vanyek, MEDIUM): Tactical reports indicate "residual mopeds" (Shahed-type UAS) remain in the air, likely being engaged by Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs).
RUSSIAN PSYOP – MEDVEDCHUK INTERVIEW (0054Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian figure Viktor Medvedchuk used for a "mockery" narrative regarding Western aid (Davos summit), attempting to frame military support as archaic/insufficient.
Operational picture (by sector)
North-Eastern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv):
The threat has transitioned from long-range UAS to high-weight tactical ordnance. The 0039Z and 0049Z KAB launches represent a significant kinetic escalation against frontline and near-rear positions. This follows the 0030Z detection of hostile tactical aviation and suggests that the UAS wave was used to map and suppress UAF air defense (AD) radars before the Su-34/35 sorties commenced.
Kyiv/Central Sector:
The immediate threat to Kyiv has passed (0057Z). However, the transit of UAS via Boyarka noted in the previous report indicates the enemy is testing the southern corridors of the Kyiv AD bubble.
Western Sector (Khmelnytskyi/Shepetivka):
Alarms have been lifted (0058Z), but the status of the previously reported explosions in Khmelnytskyi Oblast (0037Z) remains unconfirmed as either successful interceptions or impacts.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Transition: The RF is demonstrating a coordinated "1-2 punch" tactic—using UAS to saturate AD and force interceptor expenditure, followed immediately by KAB strikes from tactical aviation in the NE.
Targeting Intent: Continued focus on "City-Kill" infrastructure decapitation. The shift to KABs in Kharkiv suggests a transition from targeting power/logistics to the systematic destruction of tactical defensive positions or administrative centers.
Logistics Status: Per the previous daily report, the surge at the GRAU Missile Arsenal (Score 33.72) suggests that while this current wave is tapering, a major strategic missile strike (cruise/ballistic) remains highly probable within 48 hours.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UAF AD units successfully cleared the Kyiv airspace. Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are currently tasked with hunting the "residual" UAS reported at 0101Z.
Counter-Propaganda: UAF AF continues to provide real-time, high-confidence alerts that limit the effectiveness of RF kinetic surprises.
Information environment / disinformation
Narrative Manipulation: The Russian state (TASS) is employing Viktor Medvedchuk (0054Z) to influence the international discourse surrounding the Davos summit. The narrative aims to delegitimize Ukrainian diplomatic efforts by portraying Western aid as "primitive weapons" (bows and arrows).
Domestic Distraction: Continued reporting on trivial domestic issues (beer standards, 0105Z) serves to shield the Russian domestic audience from the scale of the ongoing conflict and UAF deep strikes.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued KAB strikes on Sumy and Kharkiv frontline zones. Residual UAS will be neutralized by MFGs. A lull in deep strikes is expected as RF tactical aviation reloads.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A "back-to-back" missile surge. Using the current AD fatigue from the 4-hour UAS/KAB wave, the RF may launch Kalibr or Kh-101 missiles from stand-off ranges to exploit gaps in the western/central sectors.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for Khmelnytskyi and Shostka: Determine if the munitions/chemical production hub in Shostka sustained damage.
[HIGH] Radar tracking of tactical aviation in the NE: Identify if Su-34s are returning to base or if a second sortie wave is forming.
[MEDIUM] Verification of "residual" UAS count: Confirm if 0101Z report refers to 1-2 units or a cohesive sub-grouping.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
KAB Launches: HIGH (UAF AF confirmed).
Kyiv All Clear: HIGH (KMVA confirmed).
Khmelnytskyi BDA: LOW (No confirmation of impact vs. interception).
