INFRASTRUCTURE – POLTAVA GRID (1850Z, RBC-UA/Poltavaoblenergo, HIGH): Emergency blackouts introduced in Poltava region following targeted strikes. This expands the "City-Kill" operational effect beyond the previously identified Kharkiv/Zaporizhzhia axes.
KINETIC STRIKE – ODESA SUBSTATION (1903Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian sources claim a Geran-2 UAV strike successfully hit the "Dobroslav" 220/110 kV substation. UNCONFIRMED; awaiting BDA or official UAF confirmation.
INFORMATION WARFARE – ZAPORIZHZHIA PSYOPS (1901Z, Voin DV, HIGH): Russian forces have launched a coordinated surrender appeal targeting UAF personnel in Zaliznychne, Staroukrainka, Tsvetkove, and surrounding settlements. This likely signals an imminent ground assault in these specific sectors.
MANEUVER – POKROVSK/KOSTIANTYNIVKA AXIS (1847Z/1856Z, Multiple Sources, MEDIUM): Video and map data indicate increased movement near Kostiantynivka and the Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk)-Hryshyne line, suggesting Russian forces are probing for gaps following the Kupyansk collapse.
TECH DEPLOYMENT – ROBOTIC RECOVERY (1858Z, OperativnoZSU, HIGH): UAF confirmed the use of Ground Robotic Complexes (NRC) for the extraction and recovery of "Vampire" heavy hexacopters, mitigating personnel risk in contested retrieval zones.
OCCUPIED TERRITORY – MELITOPOL STRIKE (1904Z, RVvoenkor, MEDIUM): Reports of a strike on Melitopol resulting in a city-wide blackout. Russian sources attribute this to UAF kinetic activity targeting occupied logistics hubs.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Poltava): The grid attrition has shifted west. Poltava is now experiencing emergency shutdowns (1850Z). Energy restoration efforts are described by MinEnergo as occurring under "extremely difficult conditions" (1841Z).
Eastern Axis (Donbas): High activity reported on the Pokrovsk-Hryshyne axis (1856Z). Footage from Kostiantynivka (1847Z) confirms ongoing tactical maneuvers. This corroborates the previous report of a Russian push toward the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk line.
Southern Axis (Mykolaiv/Zaporizhzhia): UAVs (Shahed/Geran) are active over southern Mykolaiv (1846Z). In Zaporizhzhia, the concentration of PsyOps (1901Z) on specific settlements (Zaliznychne to Ternovate) suggests these are the primary Russian objectives for the next 24-48 hours.
Maritime/Odesa: Potential penetration of the Odesa air defense bubble (1903Z) targeting the Dobroslav substation indicates Russia is attempting to isolate the Port of Odesa from the regional power grid.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Transition: Russian aviation is maintaining high activity in the SE direction (1856Z). The synchronization of PsyOps (1901Z) with tactical aviation suggests a "Softening" phase before mechanized maneuvers in the Huliaipole-Stepnohirsk sector.
Winterization Logistics: Russian mil-bloggers (Fighterbomber, 1840Z) emphasize a shift to cold-weather operational procedures ("podshtanniki" rule), indicating the RF high command is bracing for a sustained winter campaign despite high attrition.
Infrastructure Attrition: The targeting of the Dobroslav substation (if confirmed) follows the pattern of isolating NPP-linked nodes to induce a systemic grid failure.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Asymmetric Response: Successful integration of robotic recovery for high-value UAV assets (1858Z) demonstrates a high level of tactical adaptation to offset hardware losses and personnel exposure.
Resilience Operations: MinEnergo and regional utility providers (Poltavaoblenergo) are conducting rapid repair cycles, though the frequency of strikes is outpacing current repair capacity (1841Z).
Deep Strike: Potential UAF strike on Melitopol (1904Z) indicates maintained long-range capability to disrupt Russian occupation stability and logistics in the "Land Bridge" corridor.
Information environment / disinformation
Geopolitical Diversion: Russian state-aligned channels (ASTRA, Alex Parker, 1845Z-1907Z) are hyper-focused on Donald Trump’s Greenland/Tariff rhetoric and European reactions (Macron).
Analysis: This is a coordinated attempt to project Western disunity (Dempster-Shafer belief: 0.11 for trade disagreement; 0.09 for Greenland propaganda) to demoralize the Ukrainian domestic audience regarding long-term support.
Surrender Narratives: The Voin DV campaign (1901Z) is highly localized, using geographical specificity to increase the perceived inevitability of a Russian breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV and tactical aviation strikes on the Poltava and Odesa grids to force local blackouts.
MDCOA: A multi-battalion ground assault in the Zaporizhzhia sector targeting the villages listed in the 1901Z surrender appeal (Zaliznychne, Staroukrainka), supported by the active tactical aviation in the SE.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Odesa BDA: Confirm status of Dobroslav 220/110 kV substation. If offline, assess impact on Odesa port operations.
[HIGH] Zaporizhzhia Front: Monitor for Russian mechanized movement toward Zaliznychne and Staroukrainka. PsyOps presence suggests these are near-term tactical objectives.
[MEDIUM] Robotic Efficacy: Request technical data on NRC (robotic) performance in EW-heavy environments to determine if this can be scaled for casualty evacuation (CASEVAC).
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
Poltava Blackouts: HIGH (Regional energy provider).
Zaporizhzhia PsyOps Settlements: HIGH (Source provides specific village list).
