KINETIC STRIKE – KHARKIV (1822Z, RBC-UA/Terehov, HIGH): Confirmed Russian strike on Kharkiv city. This follows the 1751Z "BPL-North" threat and marks a continuation of the "City-Kill" infrastructure attrition.
AERIAL STANDOFF – SUMY KAB LAUNCHES (1823Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has conducted multiple launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the Sumy region.
MANEUVER WARFARE – SLOVIANSK AXIS (1829Z, Rybar, MEDIUM): Reports of a renewed Russian offensive push toward Sloviansk. Operational maps indicate an attempt to close gaps in the Siversk-Sloviansk line.
COUNTER-DRONE OPS – DNIPROPETROVSK (1813Z, Dnipro ODA/Ganzha, HIGH): Ukrainian Air Defense (PvK) successfully neutralized 4 Russian UAVs over the Dnipropetrovsk region during the last 6-hour window.
TACTICAL SUCCESS – HULIAIPOLE (1831Z, OperativnoZSU, HIGH): UAF drone unit "Phoenix" confirmed multiple successful strikes on Russian infantry and motor transport in the Huliaipole sector.
INFRASTRUCTURE – ZAPORIZHZHIA GRID (1833Z, TASS/Balitsky, MEDIUM): Russian occupation authorities claim a "significant part" of the Zaporizhzhia region is de-energized following UAF strikes.
MARITIME RECON – CHINA (1821Z, Basurin, MEDIUM): Testing of "Shuichao" type landing barges near Nanshan Island reported. While external to the AOR, it signals potential technological shifts in amphibious doctrine among Russian partners.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy): High-intensity aerial bombardment. Kharkiv is under sustained fire (1822Z). Sumy is facing a dual threat of loitering munitions (1809Z heading toward Lebedyn) and KABs (1823Z).
Eastern Axis (Donbas/Sloviansk): The sector is heating up with Russian MoD reporting Grad MLRS and UAV strikes in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction (1837Z). FAB-250 strikes confirmed near Belitske (1815Z). The Rybar report on the Sloviansk offensive (1829Z) suggests a coordinated multi-prong effort to penetrate the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson): Kinetic drone activity is high. UAF is successfully hunting RF logistics in Huliaipole (1831Z). Meanwhile, Russian UAVs are penetrating Eastern Kherson on a SW course (1811Z). The reported de-energization of the region (1833Z) may be a precursor to Russian defensive "blackout" measures.
Rear Areas (Kyiv): Russian channels (1834Z) are amplifying reports of heating failures in dozens of Kyiv homes. While potentially exaggerated for psychological effect, it aligns with the "City-Kill" phase objectives.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactical Shift (Aviation): The transition from loitering munitions to heavy KAB/FAB use in the North and East indicates a shift toward destroying hardened defensive positions rather than just grid attrition.
Infrastructure Targeting: The focus remains on the "City-Kill" strategy. By claiming UAF strikes caused the Zaporizhzhia blackout, RF is likely building a narrative to justify the "NPP Isolation" plan identified in the previous sitrep (1802Z).
Course of Action (Sloviansk): The reported offensive toward Sloviansk (1829Z) suggests Russia is attempting to capitalize on the de-energization of the Ukrainian rear to force a breakthrough before spring thaws affect mobility.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Effectiveness: High success rate in the Dnipro sector (1813Z) and localized intercepts by the 39th Separate Brigade (1833Z) demonstrate resilient AD posture despite saturation attempts.
Tactical Attrition: The "Phoenix" unit's success in Huliaipole (1831Z) indicates UAF remains capable of high-precision interdiction against Russian tactical logistics (LOCOM).
Civilian Protection: KMVA is issuing guidance for animal welfare and infrastructure resilience (1826Z), indicating a whole-of-society approach to the current energy crisis.
Information environment / disinformation
Geopolitical Distraction (Greenland/Iran): Russian state media (TASS, 1816Z, 1837Z) is heavily amplifying Donald Trump's comments regarding Greenland and Iranian regime change. Assessment: This is a calculated effort to portray the West as erratic and distracted from the Ukrainian theater (Dempster-Shafer belief: 0.44).
Leadership Sabotage: Viktor Medvedchuk’s claims (1810Z) regarding corruption between Zelenskyy and Yermak are a classic active measure intended to erode internal trust during a period of high infrastructure stress.
Winter Despair: Reports of "houses without heat for a week" in Kyiv (1834Z) are being weaponized to degrade civilian morale and pressure the UAF leadership for a ceasefire.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Sustained KAB strikes on Sumy and Kharkiv. Potential expansion of the UAV ingress toward central Ukraine (Dnipropetrovsk/Poltava).
MDCOA: A coordinated ground assault on the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk axis synchronized with a fresh wave of long-range strikes on the NPP-linked substations identified in the previous GUR briefing.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Sloviansk Maneuver: Request ELINT/SIGINT confirmation of Russian unit movements near the Sloviansk axis to verify the "Rybar" offensive claims.
[CRITICAL] Kyiv Heating Status: Cross-reference Russian claims of "week-long outages" with local KMVA/DTEK data to assess the true level of infrastructure degradation.
[MEDIUM] Belitske BDA: Confirm the impact of FAB-250 strikes (1815Z) on UAF PVD (Temporary Deployment Points) in the Donetsk sector.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
Kharkiv/Sumy Strikes: HIGH (Official UAF/Local sources).
Huliaipole Tactical Success: HIGH (Combat footage/Visuals).
Sloviansk Offensive: MEDIUM (Single-source Russian mil-blogger; awaiting corroboration).
Greenland/Iran Rhetoric: HIGH (Confirmed as widespread RF information operation).
