STRATEGIC MISSILE STRIKE (1231Z-1246Z, UA AF/Kharkiv ODA, HIGH): Significant escalation in Kharkiv bombardment. At least 7-8 Iskander ballistic missiles struck critical energy infrastructure in the Industrialnyi District.
UAF KINETIC SUCCESS (1243Z, UA GenStaff, HIGH): Ukrainian forces successfully neutralized Russian Air Defense (AD) assets and a major UAV storage facility in occupied territories.
DONBAS MANEUVER (1253Z, Rybar/Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF forces are intensifying a flanking maneuver south of Kostiantynivka, advancing NW of the Kleban-Byk reservoir toward Berestky and Stepnovka.
INTERNATIONAL AID (1250Z, Czech Pres/Petr Pavel, HIGH): Czech Republic confirmed the transfer of combat aircraft (likely L-159 ALCA) specifically configured for counter-UAS (Shahed-hunting) operations.
ZNPP LOGISTICAL CEASEFIRE (1255Z, IAEA/ASTRA, HIGH): Localized ceasefire agreement reached between Ukraine and RF to allow repairs on the last remaining reserve power line at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
FOREIGN MANPOWER (1232Z, Butusov Plus, MEDIUM): Confirmed FPV drone strikes against African mercenaries (specifically identified in Pokrovsk sector), corroborating reports of RF expanding foreign recruitment.
IPB ANALYSIS
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has surged in the last 6 hours, characterized by a heavy RF ballistic focus on the Kharkiv energy hub and a widening RF offensive arc in the Donbas.
Battlefield Geometry: The most critical shift is the RF attempt to bypass Kostiantynivka’s southern defenses by utilizing the terrain around the Kleban-Byk reservoir.
Critical Infrastructure: The Kharkiv energy grid is under extreme duress; the transition from KABs (noted in previous sitrep) to a mass Iskander pulse (1231Z) indicates a deliberate "darkness" campaign synchronized with forecasted freezing temperatures.
Environment: Continued emphasis on cold-weather operations; RF propaganda is already weaponizing the low temperatures to claim an impending collapse of Kyiv's municipal services (1256Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action (Tactical): In the Donetsk sector, RF is prioritizing the pincer movement toward Kostiantynivka. This suggests a shift from frontal assaults to wide flanking maneuvers to force UAF withdrawals from fortified urban centers.
Capabilities/Adaptation: RF is increasingly utilizing "expendable" foreign manpower (African/mercenary) for high-attrition roles in the Pokrovsk and Vovchansk directions (1232Z, 1236Z).
C2/Logistics: The loss of a UAV storage facility and AD assets (1243Z) will likely create localized "dead zones" in RF reconnaissance and air cover, providing a temporary window for UAF tactical counter-strikes.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Posture: UAF maintains high-efficiency drone operations (SBS), specifically targeting high-value personnel and hardware in the "grey zone."
Tactical Success: The strike on RF AD assets and drone depots (1243Z) demonstrates effective deep-reconnaissance and long-range fires integration despite the heavy electronic warfare environment.
Resource Outlook: The incoming Czech aircraft (1250Z) will provide a necessary low-cost solution for intercepting "Shahed" swarms, preserving higher-end AD missiles for ballistic threats like the Iskanders hitting Kharkiv.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Disinformation/PsyOps: Pro-RF sources ("НгП раZVедка") are circulating claims that Kyiv authorities are urging a total evacuation of the capital (1256Z). This is assessed as a LOW CONFIDENCE/UNCONFIRMED disinformation effort to induce panic during the energy crisis.
Narrative Shifts: Russian MoD is pivoting toward highlighting military-technical cooperation with African nations (Sao Tome, Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon) (1254Z) to project global influence and mask domestic strain.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the ballistic pulse against Kharkiv while attempting to seal the pincer south of Kostiantynivka. Expect increased drone activity in the Stepnohirsk sector (Zaporizhzhia) as RF seeks to exploit the ZNPP repair ceasefire "dead zone."
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A rapid breakthrough toward the H-32 highway south of Kostiantynivka, combined with a total failure of the Kharkiv energy substation, leading to a massive civilian outflow and blocking UAF logistics to the Donbas front.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Kostiantynivka FLOT: Need GEOLOC confirmation of RF presence in Berestky or Stepnovka to verify the depth of the flanking maneuver reported by pro-RF sources.
[HIGH] Kharkiv BDA: Detailed Battle Damage Assessment of the 8 Iskander impacts. Determine if the targeted energy nodes are repairable within the 48-hour "cold snap" window.
[MEDIUM] Czech Aircraft Timeline: When will the L-159s be operational within the UAF structure? Identification of training locations is required for asset protection.
[LOW] Disinfo Verification: Monitor official Kyiv municipal channels to explicitly debunk evacuation rumors and stabilize civilian morale.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
Kharkiv Ballistic Strike: HIGH (Corroborated by both UAF/RF and civilian footage).
UAF Strike on RF Depots: HIGH (UA GenStaff official statement).
RF Flanking Kostiantynivka: MEDIUM (Detailed maps provided but lack visual UAF corroboration).
Kyiv Evacuation Rumors: LOW (Assessed as psychological operation).
