KINETIC STRIKE (1205Z-1226Z, UA AF/Kharkiv ODA, HIGH): Sustained aerial assault on Kharkiv involving KAB (guided bombs), high-speed ballistic targets, and multiple impacts in the Industrialnyi District.
TERRITORIAL GAINS (1213Z, Rybar/Voin_DV, MEDIUM): RF sources have released operational maps claiming the "liberation" of Pryluky (Eastern Zaporizhzhia). This corroborates earlier low-confidence reports (1144Z), suggesting a successful expansion of the Zhovtneve breach.
ENERGY EMERGENCY C2 (1216Z, Patrol Police/Beloshytskyi, HIGH): Ukrainian government has authorized flexible curfew regulations specifically for regions in "emergency energy situations," signaling further deterioration of the national grid.
COUNTER-UAS SUCCESS (1222Z, UA GenStaff, HIGH): UAF Unmanned Systems Forces documented the successful destruction of Russian reconnaissance drones using "Ukrainian weaponry," likely FPV-interceptors or new electronic warfare (EW) assets.
POW STATUS (1215Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Reports of three Colombian nationals serving as foreign volunteers for the UAF captured in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
ENEMY LOGISTICS (1203Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Critical maintenance failure reported in Russian small arms; specific units (likely using MP-155 variants) are experiencing total weapon failure due to missing compression rings in gas blocks.
IPB ANALYSIS
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry is rapidly evolving in the Zaporizhzhia sector, where the RF "Vostok" group is successfully widening its penetration. Concurrently, Kharkiv is under a heavy pulse of "shaping" strikes (KABs and missiles) intended to degrade industrial capacity and civilian morale.
Weather/Environment: Heavy snow and wooded terrain are impacting tactical movements. Video evidence (1207Z) shows high risk to infantry in the "grey zone" due to snow-covered minefields, specifically involving foreign personnel (notably reported as North Korean or "Korean" by UAF sources).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action (Tactical): In Zaporizhzhia, the RF is utilizing a mechanized push supported by Voin_DV assets to secure Pryluky. This moves the FLOT closer to the H-08 highway, threatening the flank of the Orikhiv defense hub.
Capabilities/Adaptation: Russia is signaling a shift toward indigenous technological redundancy with the announced launch of the "Zorkiy" satellite (1215Z), described as a Starlink analog.
Logistics/Sustainment: The report of missing compression rings in gas blocks (1203Z) indicates a failure in the Russian RAV (Rocket-Artillery Armament) service's quality control, potentially creating localized combat-ineffectiveness for units recently re-equipped.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Posture: UAF is shifting toward a "flexible defense" in the energy domain, adjusting curfews to maintain order during systemic power failures.
Tactical Success: The Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS) are demonstrating high proficiency in "drone-on-drone" combat (1222Z), a critical capability as RF increases its reconnaissance drone density to support KAB strikes.
Resource Constraints: The capture of foreign volunteers (Colombians) in the South may be used by RF for propaganda to highlight UAF manpower shortages.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Narrative Contestation (Kupyansk): A significant information gap persists. While RF MoD claims control, ISW and Ukrainian sources (1200Z) label Kupyansk a "sore point" for Russia, suggesting RF claims are a psychological operation to mask heavy losses or a stalled advance in the city's western outskirts.
Internal RF Disruption: Pro-RF sources are reporting that Zelensky is "lying" about the number of homes without heat (1211Z), attempting to use the energy crisis to drive a wedge between the Ukrainian administration and the populace.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the heavy bombardment of Kharkiv’s Industrialnyi District to deny UAF repair facilities for armor and drones, while simultaneously pushing North from Pryluky to cut the T-08-03 road.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A breakthrough in the Pryluky-Zhovtneve corridor that allows RF to bypass the Orikhiv fortifications entirely, leading to a rapid collapse of the Southern defensive line before UAF reserves can be re-routed from the East.
Space/Tech Horizon: Expect an increase in RF electronic warfare (EW) effectiveness if the "Zorkiy" satellite constellation achieves operational status, potentially interfering with UAF's own satellite-linked communications.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Pryluky FLOT: Visual confirmation (GEOLOC) of RF presence in central Pryluky to determine if the settlement is "captured" or remains a contested "grey zone."
[HIGH] Kharkiv Strike Assessment: Determine the specific industrial targets hit in the Industrialnyi District. Are these drone assembly plants or power substations?
[MEDIUM] MP-155 Failure Scale: Identify which RF units are receiving the defective weapon kits. This presents a tactical window for UAF counter-attacks against under-equipped units.
[MEDIUM] Foreign Personnel: Verify the "Korean" presence on the frontline (1207Z) to confirm the scale of third-party state involvement in active combat roles.
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT:
Kharkiv Aerial Assault: HIGH (Multiple official/civilian sources).
Pryluky Loss: MEDIUM (Corroborated by Rybar/Voin_DV maps, but pending UAF confirmation).
Energy Crisis/Curfew Changes: HIGH (Official government decree).
