Situation Report

Situation Update (0200Z 17 JAN 26)

Key updates since last sitrep

• ZAPORIZHZHIA UAV VECTOR (0144Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): A Shahed-type UAV is confirmed moving directly toward Zaporizhzhia city from the north, intensifying the threat to the regional capital's logistics and energy infrastructure.
• SUMY CITY UAV THREAT (0143Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): New UAV activity detected approaching Sumy from the north, maintaining the "complex attack" pressure (UAV + KAB) reported earlier.
• KYIV POWER INSTABILITY (0153Z, NgP RaZVedka, MEDIUM): Reports of voltage drops and electrical "surges" in Kyiv. While attributed by RU sources to "poor wiring," this likely indicates critical grid instability or an unconfirmed localized strike/sabotage following the "zero redundancy" status.
• DIPLOMATIC SIGNALING (0131Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Reports emerge of a proposed "Peace Council" for Ukraine allegedly planned by the Trump transition team, modeled on the Gaza framework.
• NATO FRAGMENTATION NARRATIVE (0137Z, TASS/Berliner Zeitung, LOW): Russian state media is amplifying claims of a potential French exit from NATO, assessed as a strategic distraction/disinformation effort.

Operational picture (by sector)

1. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia City/Vilnyansk): The threat has progressed from the Vilnyansk transit node (0106Z) to a direct approach on Zaporizhzhia city (0144Z). This suggests the RF is utilizing UAVs for terminal target acquisition or to suppress AD prior to a larger strike. This activity directly supports the "Vostok" Group's exploitation of the Zhovtneve breach by targeting the UAF’s primary regional sustainment hub.

2. Northern Axis (Sumy): Persistent UAV pressure from the north (0143Z) keeps UA Air Defense (AD) engaged. The vectoring of drones from both the northeast and north suggests a pincer-style aerial approach to identify gaps in the city's electronic warfare (EW) and AD coverage.

3. Strategic Rear (Kyiv): The reported voltage drops (0153Z) are a critical indicator. Given the Energy Minister’s earlier warning that no power plant remains undamaged, the grid may be experiencing cascading failures. RF milbloggers are weaponizing this instability for psychological operations (PSYOP).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• AERIAL TACTICS: The RF is maintaining a high tempo of loitering munition activity to "fix" UA AD assets in place. The transition from KAB strikes (reported 0117Z) to persistent UAV probes suggests an ongoing Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) phase or the setting of conditions for a pre-dawn missile wave.
• INFORMATION OPERATIONS: Russia is aggressively pushing narratives of Western alliance fracture (France/NATO) and "alternative" peace plans to generate cognitive dissonance within the Ukrainian population and leadership while the UAF delegation is in Washington.
• INFRASTRUCTURE ATTRITION: The RF is likely monitoring the Ukrainian energy grid's "voltage signatures" via cyber or SIGINT means to time physical strikes against the most strained nodes in the "Pulse" platform.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• AIR DEFENSE: Mobile AD groups remain active in the Zaporizhzhia and Sumy corridors.
• STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY: The high-level delegation in Washington must now contend with leaked or manufactured "Peace Council" frameworks (0131Z), which may complicate requests for immediate kinetic support if perceived as a shift toward a "freeze" in hostilities.

Information environment / disinformation

• NATO STABILITY: The TASS report (0137Z) regarding France is assessed as HIGHLY LIKELY DISINFORMATION aimed at eroding trust in the NATO security umbrella during a period of UAF tactical vulnerability.
• PSYCHOLOGICAL OPS: RU channels (NgP RaZVedka) are mocking Ukrainian infrastructure failures to degrade morale. This coincides with physical strikes to create a "hopelessness" loop.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA: RF will launch a final wave of Shahed strikes NLT 0400Z to deplete AD magazines, followed by localized mechanized probes in the Zaporizhzhia sector at first light (0500Z-0600Z).
• MDCOA: A coordinated kinetic strike on Kyiv's remaining substations, timed with the reported grid instability, to trigger a total blackout in the capital while the leadership is overseas.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [CRITICAL] Kyiv Grid Status: Technical verification of the "voltage drops" (0153Z). Was this caused by a drone strike, cyber-attack, or autonomous grid failure?
2. [HIGH] Zaporizhzhia UAV Payload: Identify if the 0144Z UAV is a standard Shahed-136 or an ISR variant (Orlan-10/Supercam) providing live BDA for Iskander units.
3. [MEDIUM] NATO/France Sentiment: Monitor French official channels to debunk the Berliner Zeitung/TASS narrative before it gains traction in UA domestic media.

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IPB ANALYSIS (IPB 2.13)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The operational tempo remains high. The RF is successfully transitioning from regional "fixing" attacks (Sumy/Kharkiv) to a focused threat against the Zaporizhzhia hub. The convergence of aerial threats on Zaporizhzhia and reported power instability in Kyiv indicates a coordinated "Dual-Hub" pressure strategy (Logistics in the South, Governance in the Center).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS RF "Vostok" and "Sever" groups are demonstrating high synchronicity. The use of UAVs to probe Zaporizhzhia (0144Z) immediately follows the ground success at Zhovtneve, indicating an intent to prevent UAF from establishing a new defensive line along the H-08 highway. The RF is also utilizing "Information-Kinetic" synchronization—using real grid failures to amplify disinformation.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UAF is in a defensive "economy of force" mode. The focus is on protecting the Zaporizhzhia logistics artery while managing a deteriorating energy situation. The Washington delegation's primary task is now "Narrative Management" regarding leaked peace plans while securing AD interceptors.

4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• MLCOA: Continued UAV harassment of Zaporizhzhia city to force the withdrawal of AD from the front lines, creating a "clear sky" for RU tactical aviation at dawn.
• MDCOA: A major cruise missile strike targeting the "Pulse" decentralized energy nodes in Western/Central Ukraine to demonstrate the futility of the UAF's new energy strategy.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

1. Tactical: Zaporizhzhia city AD must remain on high alert for "low and slow" UAVs that may be acting as designators for high-speed ballistic strikes.
2. Operational: Deploy additional mobile power generation units to Kyiv hospitals and command centers immediately, anticipating further grid instability (Ref: 0153Z report).
3. Strategic Comm: Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD) should immediately issue a rebuttal to the "France/NATO" TASS narrative to prevent domestic panic.

//REPORT ENDS//