Situation Report

Situation Update (0130Z 17 JAN 26)

Key updates since last sitrep

• KAB STRIKES - EAST KHARKIV (0117Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): RF tactical aviation has launched a new wave of guided aerial bombs (KAB) targeting the eastern districts of the Kharkiv region.
• KAB STRIKES - SUMY (0116Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed KAB launches targeting the Sumy region, following previous drone activity in the area.
• ZAPORIZHZHIA UAV THREAT (0106Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): A Shahed-type UAV is operating near or passing Vilnyansk from the north, placing the northern Zaporizhzhia logistics hub under immediate threat.
• SUMY CITY UAV VECTOR (0111Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): A UAV is tracked moving toward Sumy city from the northeast, indicating a coordinated multi-vector strike (KAB + UAV).
• ODESA/DOBROSLAV PERSISTENCE (0114Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): UAVs remain active on the Dobroslav axis, likely targeting port-adjacent rail or storage infrastructure.
• "RESIDUAL" UAV THREAT (0108Z, Mykolaiv Vanek, MEDIUM): Local sources indicate a diminishing number of active "mopeds" (Shaheds) from the initial wave, suggesting a transition to the tactical aviation (KAB) phase of the night's operations.

Operational picture (by sector)

1. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Vilnyansk): The movement of a UAV toward Vilnyansk (0106Z) is a critical operational development. Vilnyansk serves as a key transit point for UAF reinforcements and supplies moving toward the Stepnohirsk-Zhovtneve sector, where RF forces recently secured a breakthrough (Daily Report 1430Z). This aerial activity likely supports the "Vostok" Group's exploitation of the Zhovtneve seizure.

2. Eastern Axis (Kharkiv): The focus has shifted to the eastern districts of the region (0117Z). Following the earlier residential strikes in Saltivskyi, this suggests a broadening of the target set to include tactical rear areas, possibly aiming to disrupt UAF reserves intended for the Kupyansk sector, which the RF MoD now claims to control.

3. Northern Axis (Sumy): Sumy is currently facing a "complex attack" profile. The simultaneous presence of a UAV vector from the northeast (0111Z) and KAB launches (0116Z) forces UA Air Defense (AD) to manage both low-altitude loitering munitions and high-altitude ballistic-path bombs.

4. Southern Axis (Odesa/Mykolaiv): The threat to Dobroslav (0114Z) remains consistent. This indicates a sustained interest in the northern approaches to Odesa, potentially aiming to bypass urban AD bubbles to strike transport infrastructure.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• AERIAL TACTICS: The RF is employing a "layered exhaustion" model tonight. Initial Shahed swarms (0108Z) were used to map and deplete AD interceptors, followed by ISR UAVs for BDA (as seen earlier in Kyiv), and culminating in heavy KAB strikes in the East and North where tactical aviation can operate with standoff range.
• FORCE DISPOSITION: The targeting of Vilnyansk (0106Z) suggests the RF is prioritizing the isolation of the Zaporizhzhia battlefield to prevent UAF from stabilizing the breach at Zhovtneve.
• HYBRID OPS: Russian state-aligned channels continue to propagate narratives of internal moral decay within Ukrainian-aligned media (0108Z, NgP RaZVedka). This coincides with the presence of the high-level UA delegation in Washington, aiming to project an image of a fractured Ukrainian rear to Western observers.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• AD ENGAGEMENT: UAF AD units are maintaining high readiness across four distinct oblasts (Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kharkiv, Odesa).
• MANEUVER: UAF forces in the Zaporizhzhia sector are likely repositioning to counter the RF push from Zhovtneve, making the Vilnyansk logistics node a high-priority protection zone.

Information environment / disinformation

• COGNITIVE DISSONANCE: RF milbloggers are intensifying personal attacks on Ukrainian influencers (0108Z). This is assessed as a move to degrade domestic morale as the energy grid remains at "zero redundancy."
• STRATEGIC DISTRACTION: Minor reporting on foreign military production (Australian amphibious vehicles, 0103Z) is being used by RU outlets to fill the information space with non-critical data, potentially masking more significant tactical movements on the ground.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will continue KAB strikes on Kharkiv and Sumy to pin UA reserves. In the South, the RF will attempt to capitalize on the Zhovtneve breach by launching mechanized probes toward the H-08 highway, supported by the UAVs currently loitering near Vilnyansk.
• MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF aviation utilizes the "all-clear" in other sectors to launch a coordinated cruise missile strike on the Zaporizhzhia city energy hub while AD is distracted by the Vilnyansk and Odesa UAV groups.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [CRITICAL] Zaporizhzhia Ground FLOT: Verify if RF mechanized units have moved north of Zhovtneve toward the H-08 logistics artery.
2. [HIGH] Kupyansk Status: Independent visual confirmation of RF presence in western Kupyansk to verify MoD claims of total control.
3. [MEDIUM] Vilnyansk Impact: Determine if the 0106Z UAV was a strike or reconnaissance variant.

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IPB ANALYSIS (IPB 2.12)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The conflict has entered a period of high kinetic intensity in the South (Zaporizhzhia) and sustained aerial pressure in the North/East. The RF is successfully synchronizing ground maneuvers in Zaporizhzhia with aerial interdiction of the logistics nodes (Vilnyansk) supporting that front.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS The RF "Sever" and "Zapad" groups are demonstrating improved air-to-ground coordination. The use of KABs on Sumy and Kharkiv within minutes of each other (0116Z-0117Z) suggests a centralized air command directing sorties to overwhelm UA's regional AD management.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UA forces are under extreme pressure to manage the Southern breach. The loss of Zhovtneve necessitates a mobile defense-in-depth. The delegation in Washington must secure not only AD but also long-range strike capabilities to hit RF airfields (specifically those hosting KAB-capable Su-34s) to break this strike cycle.

4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• MLCOA: Expect a significant ground push in the Zaporizhzhia sector at dawn (approx. 0500Z-0600Z), utilizing the current UAV reconnaissance as final targeting data.
• MDCOA: A "double-tap" strike on Sumy or Kharkiv infrastructure during emergency response operations from the current KAB wave.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

1. Immediate: Alert all mobile AD groups in the Zaporizhzhia sector to prioritize the Vilnyansk corridor to protect incoming reserves.
2. Tactical: FPV units near Stepnohirsk should prioritize "Yezh"-equipped armor to stall the RF exploitation of the Zhovtneve breach.

//REPORT ENDS//