Situation Report

Situation Update (0100Z 17 JAN 26)

Key updates since last sitrep

• KYIV ALL-CLEAR / ISR THREAT (0037Z-0046Z, UA Air Force/KMVA, HIGH): Air raid sirens were deactivated for Kyiv city at 0046Z. However, a Russian reconnaissance UAV remains active in Northern Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorod/Hostomel axis) as of 0037Z, likely serving as a spotter for follow-on strikes.
• GUIDED BOMB (KAB) STRIKES - KHARKIV (0033Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): RF tactical aviation launched KABs toward the Kharkiv region, following the earlier residential high-rise impact in the Saltivskyi district.
• GUIDED BOMB (KAB) STRIKES - SUMY (0051Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Fresh KAB launches confirmed targeting the Sumy border region.
• SOUTHERN UAV VECTOR SHIFT (0040Z-0056Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Shahed-type UAVs have been tracked moving toward Berezanka (Mykolaiv) and Dobroslav (Odesa), indicating a widening of the southern aerial front toward port infrastructure.
• VENEZUELA DISTRACTION NARRATIVE (0041Z, TASS, LOW): RF state media is reporting high casualties from a purported "US military operation in Venezuela." This is currently UNCONFIRMED and assessed as a strategic information operation to divert international attention from Ukraine.

Operational picture (by sector)

1. Northern / Kyiv Axis: The immediate threat from the 0007Z Shahed wave has likely been neutralized or bypassed the city, leading to the 0046Z all-clear. However, the presence of a dedicated reconnaissance UAV (0037Z) in the northern corridor is a critical development. This suggests the RF is conducting real-time Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) or target acquisition for a second-echelon strike, potentially using ballistic assets.

2. Eastern Axis (Kharkiv/Donbas): The sector is under heavy aerial bombardment. Following the 0011Z incident, the launch of additional KABs (0033Z) indicates a sustained "terror-saturation" tactic against Kharkiv city and its outskirts. The intent appears to be overwhelming emergency response services and degrading civilian morale.

3. Southern Axis (Mykolaiv/Odesa): The aerial threat has transitioned from the interior (Zaporizhzhia) toward the coastal logistics hubs. The vector toward Dobroslav (0056Z) places the Odesa port complex and surrounding grain infrastructure under renewed threat.

4. Border Region (Sumy): KAB launches (0051Z) target the northern logistics depth, likely aimed at disrupting UAF reinforcements or staging areas near the international border.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• AERIAL TACTICS: RF has shifted from pure UAV saturation to a "Hunter-Killer" profile in the Kyiv sector, utilizing ISR UAVs to loiter and identify gaps in AD or fixed targets. The transition to KABs in Kharkiv/Sumy indicates a reliance on stand-off tactical aviation to maintain pressure without risking high-cost cruise missiles.
• ISR DEPLOYMENT: The use of a reconnaissance UAV over Kyiv Oblast (0037Z) while the city is in "all-clear" status is a deceptive measure, potentially aimed at catching AD crews during a post-alert reset.
• C2 ADAPTATION: The synchronization of KAB launches across two separate sectors (Kharkiv and Sumy) within 20 minutes suggests efficient coordination between RF Zapad and Sever grouping air commands.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• AD INTERCEPTION: UAF air defense assets are actively engaging the reconnaissance UAV in Northern Kyiv (0037Z).
• EMERGENCY MGMT: DSNS forces in Kharkiv are operating under "double-tap" threat conditions due to ongoing KAB launches (0033Z).
• MARITIME DEFENSE: AD units in Odesa/Mykolaiv have been alerted to the 0056Z UAV vector targeting the Dobroslav axis.

Information environment / disinformation

• GLOBAL DIVERSION: The TASS report regarding Venezuela (0041Z) and the disinformation regarding a "White House Gaza Peace Council" (0031Z) are assessed as a coordinated effort to flood the global information space. This is intended to create a sense of global instability, potentially weakening the domestic US focus on the high-level Ukrainian delegation (Budanov/Umerov) currently in Washington.
• INTERNAL DISCORD: Russian "Z-channels" (NgP RaZVedka, 0057Z) continue to target Ukrainian-aligned influencers to fuel internal social friction.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued KAB strikes on Kharkiv and Sumy through the night. The ISR UAV over Kyiv will be used to guide a small-scale precision strike (Iskander or Kh-59/69) on a specific high-value target identified during the earlier Shahed wave.
• MDCOA (Most Dangerous): The reconnaissance UAV in the North facilitates a precision strike on government or command nodes in Kyiv while the populace is lulled by the "all-clear" signal. Simultaneously, Shahed groups in Odesa/Mykolaiv execute a coordinated strike on the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant (SUNPP) transmission lines.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [CRITICAL] Kyiv ISR UAV Status: Confirm if the reconnaissance drone has been downed or if it remains on station.
2. [HIGH] Kharkiv BDA: Identify the specific impact points of the 0033Z KAB launches to determine if energy infrastructure or residential zones were targeted.
3. [MEDIUM] Odesa Vector: Track the Dobroslav UAV group to determine if the target is the Odesa port or the railway bridge at Zatoka.

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IPB ANALYSIS (IPB 2.11)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The operational tempo remains high. The RF is leveraging a combination of "low-end" Shaheds to drain AD and "high-end" KABs for structural destruction. The battlefield geometry is currently defined by an aerial "siege" of the northern and eastern urban centers.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS The RF is displaying high confidence in its ISR capabilities, as evidenced by the bold deployment of a spotter UAV near the capital. The use of KABs in the East confirms that RF aviation is operating with a degree of impunity in the stand-off zone, suggesting UAF long-range SAM coverage may be stretched thin.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UA forces are successfully managing the Shahed threat (as evidenced by the Kyiv all-clear), but the persistent ISR threat indicates a need for electronic warfare (EW) reinforcement in the northern sector. The delegation in Washington must emphasize the urgent need for additional tactical air defense (Gepard, Skynex) to counter KAB-launching aircraft.

4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• MLCOA: Expect a kinetic peak between 0300Z and 0500Z as the remaining southern UAVs reach their targets and the ISR findings from the Kyiv loiterer are actioned.
• MDCOA: RF utilizes the Venezuela/Gaza disinformation to mask a major tactical escalation on the Southern Front (Zhovtneve/Stepnohirsk axis), capitalizing on the distraction of the UA command delegation and the international media.

//REPORT ENDS//