ENERGY CRISIS – TOTAL GRID IMPACT (0908Z, RBK-UA/Shmyhal, HIGH): Prime Minister Shmyhal confirmed that 100% of Ukraine’s power plants have now been targeted and struck by Russian forces. Severe generation deficits are reported, specifically in Kyiv, Odesa, and frontline regions.
TACTICAL LOSS – LOGISTICS INTERDICTION (0926Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed a critical crossing over the Oskol River near Osinovo (Kharkiv region). This likely complicates UAF logistics for the Kupyansk grouping.
TERRAIN LOSS – ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR (0908Z, 0911Z, Kotenok/Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM): Russian forces claim the capture of Zhovtneve (Yelenokonstantinovka) following an operational encirclement. (UNCONFIRMED: Visual verification pending, but corroborated by multiple RU tactical channels).
TERRAIN LOSS – DONBAS SECTOR (0929Z, TASS/MoD Russia, LOW): Russian MoD claims the liberation of Zakotne (DNR). (UNCONFIRMED: Single-source claim).
STRATEGIC COOPERATION – UK DEFENSE HUB (0914Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): The United Kingdom has announced the opening of a defense business center in Kyiv to support startups and accelerate the delivery of military equipment.
HYBRID OPS – BALTIC SABOTAGE ATTRIBUTION (0926Z, Reuters/Operativno ZSU, HIGH): Intelligence reports link the Russian GRU to a 2024 arson attempt at a Lithuanian factory producing radio-wave scanners for the UAF.
THREAT – AERIAL ACTIVITY (0919Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Shahed UAV detected moving toward Chernihiv from the North; air defense remains active.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Kyiv/Sumy):
Kyiv: Energy situation described as "most difficult" (0925Z). Grid stability is at a breaking point.
Chernihiv: Active UAV threat (0919Z) suggests a continued Russian effort to fix air defense assets away from the front lines or target regional heating infrastructure.
2. Eastern Axis (Donbas/Kupyansk):
Kupyansk: The destruction of the Oskol River crossing at Osinovo (0926Z) represents a tactical setback for UAF resupply. Russian volunteer networks are actively delivering transport vehicles to frontline units in this sector (0900Z), indicating sustained RU offensive intent.
Siversk/Zakotne: Russian claims regarding Zakotne (0929Z), if verified, would indicate a further tightening of the salient around Siversk.
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk):
Zhovtneve: Likely captured by RF forces (0908Z). This move consolidates the Russian flank as they push toward the H-08 highway.
Huliaipole: Remains highly kinetic. UAF successfully destroyed a Russian MT-LB (0919Z), while DPSU aerial reconnaissance destroyed a Russian fire point and mortar position (0905Z). However, Russian sources report taking UAF prisoners in the vicinity (0922Z), suggesting high-intensity close-quarters combat.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Logistics Interdiction: Shift in Russian air operations to target river crossings (Oskol) suggests an intent to isolate UAF bridgeheads and degrade the ability to rotate troops in the East.
Hybrid Tactics: Russian state media is aggressively amplifying nuclear signaling via Western media figures (Tucker Carlson/Oreshnik narrative) to deter Western escalatory responses (0923Z).
Weather Adaptation: Snow and poor visibility are temporarily limiting Ukrainian drone effectiveness, while NATO ISR (RQ-4/P-8) maintains high activity in the Black Sea to compensate for sensor gaps (0901Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Resilience: DPSU units on the Southern Front are demonstrating effective "hunter-killer" drone tactics, successfully engaging multiple target types (antenna equipment, mortar teams) in single sorties (0905Z).
Logistical Expansion: Establishing the UK defense business center in Kyiv (0914Z) signals a transition toward indigenous production and localized maintenance of Western-standard equipment.
Internal Security: Countering Russian-seeded political narratives; the Tymoshenko trial continues to be monitored for signs of Russian exploitation of domestic political friction (0901Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Narrative Equivalence: Russian sources (Kots) are attempting to equate the humanitarian impact of the Kyiv blackout with the situation in Belgorod (0923Z). This is a strategic effort to neutralize international condemnation of Russian grid strikes.
Targeted Leaks: Continuous focus on Yulia Tymoshenko’s mobile device data (0901Z, 0905Z) aims to create a perception of corruption and internal instability within the Ukrainian political leadership.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Russian forces will continue to expand their footprint around Stepnohirsk and Zhovtneve, seeking to establish fire control over the H-08 highway. Small-scale Shahed strikes on Northern/Central energy nodes will continue.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-axis missile strike synchronized with the current snowfall to overwhelm UAF repair crews while they are logistically hampered, leading to a total blackout in Kyiv as sub-zero temperatures peak.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirmation of FLOT at Zakotne and Zhovtneve. Are these permanent occupations or temporary raids?
[HIGH] Damage assessment of the Oskol River crossing. Is there an alternative pontoon or viable bypass for heavy equipment near Osinovo?
[MEDIUM] Evaluation of Telegram-Russian State cooperation (0916Z). Assess if this reflects new technical backdoors that could compromise UAF tactical comms.
