LOGISTICS – FUEL SECURITY (0841Z, RBK-UA/Shmyhal, HIGH): Prime Minister Shmyhal confirmed Ukraine maintains a 20-day strategic reserve of gasoline and diesel, with imports continuing. This mitigates immediate concerns regarding a total logistical collapse during the energy crisis.
DIPLOMATIC – CZECH PRESIDENTIAL VISIT (0834Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Czech President Petr Pavel has arrived in Kyiv. This visit likely coordinates the delivery of high-voltage transformers and emergency aid requested in the previous daily report.
CIVIL DEFENSE – CURFEW ADJUSTMENTS (0859Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): New curfew regulations allow civilians to move without special permits specifically to reach "Points of Invincibility" and heating centers, responding to the critical heating failures in Kyiv.
TACTICAL SUCCESS – ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR (0853Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH): Visual evidence confirms the destruction of a Russian MT-LB (armored personnel carrier) by a UAF FPV drone in the Huliaipole area.
INTERNAL SECURITY – SEVASTOPOL SABOTAGE CLAIM (0841Z, Operation Z, MEDIUM): Russian FSB claims to have apprehended a "Ukrainian-indoctrinated" individual preparing terrorist attacks in Sevastopol. (UNCONFIRMED: Likely a domestic security narrative or counter-sabotage operation).
HYBRID OPS – CYBER EXPLOITATION (0835Z, Alex Parker, MEDIUM): Alleged Signal messenger leaks involving Yulia Tymoshenko are being circulated by pro-Russian channels. This is assessed as a target-specific influence operation intended to sow political discord.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Kyiv/Sumy):
Kyiv: Movement restrictions are being eased (0859Z) to prevent civilian casualties from the forecast freeze (-30°C) by ensuring access to warming centers.
Sumy/Kharkiv Border: Russian artillery remains active. A strike on Studenok (0844Z) resulted in civilian casualties, confirming sustained harassment of border settlements to maintain the "buffer zone" (IPB Step 1).
2. Eastern Axis (Donbas/Kupyansk):
Siversk/Kupyansk: No new visual confirmation of Russian claims regarding the fall of Siversk. This remains a critical intelligence gap.
Rear Operations: The circulation of the Tymoshenko "leaks" (0835Z) suggests a shift in focus toward the Ukrainian political rear to exploit the stress of the energy crisis.
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk):
Huliaipole: Active UAF FPV drone operations (0853Z) confirm that while Russian forces claimed capture of bunker complexes (Daily Report 15 Jan), the area remains a contested kinetic zone. UAF is successfully interdicting Russian armored mobility.
Stepnohirsk/Zhovtneve: Still no visual verification of Russian control. These settlements remain the primary focal point for a potential Russian breakthrough toward the H-08 highway.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Changes: Russian forces are increasingly reliant on armored "raids" (MT-LBs) in the South, which are being met by dense UAF FPV drone coverage (0853Z).
Hybrid Maneuvers: The Russian narrative machine is pivoting toward internal Ukrainian security (Sevastopol arrests) and political instability (Signal leaks) to distract from UAF deep strikes like the Taganrog plant hit.
Environmental Factors: A "large coronal hole" (0832Z, TASS) has formed on the sun. Analytic Judgment: This may lead to geomagnetic storms affecting SATCOM, GPS accuracy, and high-frequency radio communications over the next 24-48 hours.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Logistical Resilience: PM Shmyhal’s announcement of 20-day fuel reserves (0841Z) and market-based pricing (0855Z) indicates a stabilized supply chain despite the power grid crisis.
Counter-Drone Operations: UAF continues to demonstrate high proficiency in FPV employment in the Huliaipole sector, effectively punishing Russian attempts to consolidate gains.
Diplomatic Engagement: Leveraging the Pavel visit (0834Z) to secure immediate energy-related technical assistance (transformers/generators).
Information environment / disinformation
"The Greenland Distraction": Russian state media is heavily amplifying a minor French-US diplomatic friction regarding Greenland (0843Z, 0852Z). This is a classic theater-level distraction aimed at portraying a rift in Western unity.
Infiltration Narrative: The Sevastopol "zombified youth" report (0841Z) is being used to justify heightened security measures in occupied Crimea and to frame UAF operations as "terrorism" to domestic Russian audiences.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued Russian pressure on the Huliaipole-Stepnohirsk axis. Continued UAV/missile harassment of the Kharkiv/Kyiv energy corridor before the -30°C temperature drop.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Simultaneous kinetic breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia and a major cyber-attack on the remaining Ukrainian grid management systems, synchronized with the forecast solar storm's impact on communications.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] FLOT Verification: Urgent need for BDA or ISR confirmation of the front line at Stepnohirsk and Siversk.
[HIGH] Energy Infrastructure: Determine if the "ice plugs" in Kyiv high-rises have begun to affect water/sewerage trunk lines.
[MEDIUM] Solar Impact: Monitor for degradation in Starlink or GPS-guided munition accuracy starting NLT 1700Z today.
