CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE - KYIV GRID COLLAPSE (2048Z, TASS, HIGH): Ukrainian PM Sviridenko announced the extension of school winter holidays in Kyiv until February 1st due to ongoing blackouts, confirming the "cascading failure" of the national grid.
ENERGY SECTOR - ZAPORIZHZHIA POWER OUTAGE (2051Z, TASS/Mash, HIGH): Approximately 87,000 consumers across six districts in the Zaporizhzhia region and the city of Enerhodar are without power. RU-occupation officials attribute this to UAF kinetic strikes.
TACTICAL INTELLIGENCE - POW REVEALS LOW MORALE (2057Z, Operativnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): A captured RU serviceman from the 137th Motor Rifle Brigade (Dmitriev Ivan Vitalievich) has provided testimony regarding "one-way" assault missions and the execution of refusers by RU commanders.
DEEP STRIKE OPERATIONS - REAR AREA TARGETING (2048Z, STERNENKO, MEDIUM): High-level indicators suggest UAF drone operations are active across multiple RU border and rear regions, including Voronezh, Belgorod, Rostov, and Volgograd.
DIPLOMATIC INFO-OPS - GERMAN POLICY SHIFT (2036Z, Alex Parker Returns, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): RU-linked channels are amplifying claims that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is seeking "compromise" and restoration of relations with Russia, framing it as a response to US-driven geopolitical shifts (Greenland).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy)
Status: Stable but under extreme logistical strain.
Assessment: While tactical successes by the 13th "Khartia" Brigade were reported in the previous window, the worsening energy crisis in Kharkiv and now Kyiv (2048Z) threatens the sustainability of forward defensive lines as temperatures drop.
2. Eastern Axis (Donbas)
Status: High-intensity attrition.
Enemy Disposition: Elements of the 137th Motor Rifle Brigade are confirmed active in the sector. POW testimony (2057Z) indicates these units are suffering from severe command-and-control (C2) friction and a reliance on coercive discipline to maintain "meat assault" tempos.
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia)
Status: Infrastructure Degraded.
Battlefield Geometry: The reported blackout affecting 87,000 consumers (2051Z) in the Enerhodar/Zaporizhzhia vicinity suggests a broadening of the kinetic impact on the energy grid. If UAF is targeting specific transmission nodes, it may be to disrupt RU logistics supporting the "western flank" offensive mentioned in earlier reports.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Conduct: RU continues to employ high-casualty "meat assaults" (confirmed by POW Dmitriev). This tactic appears standardized across the 137th MRB and other frontline formations to fix UAF forces despite localized low morale.
C2 Effectiveness: Evidence of internal friction is rising. The use of "punishment" for those refusing suicidal orders suggests a breakdown in professional military discipline, though not yet at a level to cause unit-wide collapses.
Hybrid/Energy Warfare: The extension of the Kyiv blackout (2048Z) confirms that RF strikes on the Kharkiv energy hub have successfully triggered systemic instability. This is likely the precursor to a broader humanitarian pressure campaign.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Capability: UAF continues to maintain a "Drone Security" posture (2048Z) across RU rear echelons. Targeting appears focused on logistics and energy infrastructure in the Voronezh, Belgorod, and Rostov regions to create reciprocal pressure on RU domestic stability.
Civilian Management: The government is shifting to long-term emergency measures (extending holidays to Feb 1) to manage the energy deficit, indicating that quick restoration of the Kyiv power grid is not anticipated.
Information environment / disinformation
Narrative Targeting (Germany): Pro-RU channels are aggressively pushing a narrative of German "capitulation" or policy reversal under Merz (2036Z). This is designed to undermine UAF confidence in sustained European support.
Narrative Targeting (US-UA Friction): RU media (RVvoenkor) is amplifying perceived friction between Zelenskyy and the Trump administration (2037Z), attempting to portray the Ukrainian leadership as "offended" and isolated from its primary security guarantor.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to exploit the energy deficit through localized ground assaults, specifically targeting the Lyman and Zaporizhzhia sectors, while maintaining the psychological threat of further strategic missile strikes.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated RU breakthrough in the Stepnohirsk sector (Zaporizhzhia), taking advantage of UAF coordination difficulties caused by the grid failure and potential outages in mobile communications.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of the "87,000 blackout" in Zaporizhzhia. Determine if this was caused by UAF counter-battery fire or a RU "false flag" to justify strikes on Ukrainian civilian energy nodes.
[HIGH] Technical BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the RU energy/logistics nodes in Voronezh and Rostov following Sternenko’s report of drone activity.
[MEDIUM] Confirmation of official German Government statements regarding Merz's purported "compromise" stance to distinguish between RU disinformation and actual policy shifts.
