STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY - ENERGY "RAMSTEIN" (1931Z, RBK-Ukraine/Sybiha, HIGH): Foreign Minister Sybiha and the Ministry of Energy have formally called for an "Energy Ramstein" meeting to secure emergency high-voltage equipment and concrete commitments for grid stabilization.
COUNTER-INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKES - ZAPORIZHZHIA (1934Z-1949Z, Tsaplienko/Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Ukrainian UAVs successfully struck multiple electrical substations in Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This represents a shift toward asymmetric retaliation against occupation energy assets.
ENERGY EMERGENCY - CIVILIAN IMPACT (1954Z, RBK-Ukraine/Zelenskyy, HIGH): President Zelenskyy reported that many citizens are now without power for 20-30 hours at a time, emphasizing the near-total failure of some regional distribution networks.
AIR OPERATIONS - SUMY/EAST (1936Z-1939Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): RF launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) on the Sumy region and increased tactical aviation activity on the Eastern axis.
WEAPONRY THREAT - EXPERIMENTAL MUNITIONS (1953Z, Operatsiya Z, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Pro-RU sources claim that "Oreshnik" and experimental "Iskander" missiles are prepared for an imminent combined strike.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment has reached a critical inflection point where the energy crisis has moved from a management problem to a strategic survival threat.
Battlefield Geometry: The FLOT in the South (Stepnohirsk) remains the primary ground threat, but the operational focus of the last 2 hours has shifted to the "Energy Rear."
Weather: Extreme cold (-22°C) is approaching. The reported 20-30 hour blackouts (Zelenskyy, 1954Z) mean that thermal inertia in buildings is being lost, posing a direct threat to civilian life and military sustainment.
Control Measures: Transition to "Energy Martial Law" via the daily "Special Selector" briefings.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities & Intentions: RF is preparing for a "High-Intensity Kinetic Closure" of the energy campaign. The narrative surrounding the "Oreshnik" missile (1953Z) suggests a desire to demonstrate a capability that cannot be intercepted by current Western-supplied AD systems before the cold snap peaks.
Tactical Activity: Sustained KAB strikes on Sumy (1936Z) are intended to maintain a "shatter zone" along the northern border, preventing UAF from reinforcing either the Kharkiv energy repair effort or the Stepnohirsk breach.
Information Warfare: Pro-RU channels are utilizing emotionally charged interviews with alleged released POWs (Butusov+, 1946Z) to counter the narrative of Russian logistical failure/desertion noted in previous reports.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Strategic Posture: Ukraine is internationalizing the energy crisis. The "Energy Ramstein" (1931Z) is a recognition that internal reserves are exhausted and only direct NATO-level logistics for high-voltage hardware can prevent a total grid collapse.
Tactical Adaptations: UAF is successfully employing "Zenith FPVs" against Shahed and Molniya UAVs in Kherson (1930Z). This low-cost interception method is critical as traditional AD interceptor stocks are likely being reserved for the rumored "Oreshnik/Iskander" strike.
Offensive Action: Kinetic strikes on occupied Zaporizhzhia substations (1934Z, 1945Z) indicate UAF is now targeting the "Occupier's Grid" to force the RF to divert resources from front-line logistics to rear-area energy repair.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Global Friction: RF sources continue to amplify the "Greenland Acquisition" narrative (Sternenko 1937Z, Colonelcassad 1958Z) to portray the US administration as expansionist and NATO as structurally irrelevant.
Internal RF/Ally Instability: Unconfirmed reports of high-level arrests in Iran (Rouhani/Zarif, 1941Z) and internal security failures in Syktyvkar suggest volatility in the RF's strategic alliance network, though these have no immediate battlefield impact.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch a combined UAV/Missile strike within 06-12h targeting the Kyiv and Dnipro rail/energy nodes. This will likely coincide with the coldest pre-dawn temperatures to maximize mechanical damage to pipes and transformers.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF deploys the "Oreshnik" experimental missile against a major UAF command node or the "Energy Ramstein" coordination center in Kyiv to prove technological overmatch and force a diplomatic capitulation during the blackout.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Extreme High Probability of a massive combined air strike utilizing experimental munitions (Oreshnik/Iskander).
Critical concern for the Sumy and Kharkiv axes as KAB strikes continue to degrade defensive depth.
Expected expansion of UAF deep strikes against occupied energy assets to create "reciprocal hardship" in RF-held territory.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] MASINT/SIGINT: Monitor for telemetry or pre-launch signatures of "Oreshnik" assets at Kapustin Yar.
[HIGH] GEOINT: Verify the extent of damage to the Zaporizhzhia (occupied) substations to assess impact on RU 58th CAA logistics.
[MEDIUM] HUMINT: Gauge civilian morale in Kyiv/Kharkiv following the 20-30 hour blackout reports to assess risk of internal civil unrest.
