CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE - ENERGY EMERGENCY (1900Z-1922Z, ОВА/Zelenskyy, HIGH): President Zelenskyy has established a daily "Special Selector" command format to manage the energy crisis. Priority regions for emergency stabilization include Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Chernihiv.
CIVIL-MILITARY CONTROLS (1904Z-1920Z, Svyrydenko/РБК-Україна, HIGH): All Regional Military Administrations (OVAs) must reduce electricity consumption within 24 hours. Notably, curfews may be relaxed in energy emergency zones to facilitate logistical movements, while schools in Kyiv may extend winter holidays to Feb 1.
INTERNAL SECURITY - RUSSIA (1907Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Casualties from the explosion at the MVD training center in Syktyvkar have risen to 18. Assessment: This reinforces indicators of internal instability or severe procedural failure within RF domestic security organs.
AIR OPERATIONS - NORTH/EAST (1917Z-1918Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): RF launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) in the Donetsk region and UAVs (likely Shahed) toward Korosten, Zhytomyr region.
MARITIME - BALTIC INTERDICTION (1921Z, Два майора, MEDIUM): German authorities reportedly blocked and turned away the Russian "shadow fleet" tanker Tavian from entering German territorial waters in the Baltic Sea.
RUSSIAN REAR - BELGOROD (1919Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Approximately 500,000 residents in the Belgorod region remain without power/heat following a Jan 9 strike; civilian displacement to schools is underway.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment is currently dominated by a synchronized RF "City-Kill" campaign targeting energy transmission hubs. The destruction of the Kharkiv hub has forced the Ukrainian government into an emergency management posture.
Weather: A forecasted -22°C cold snap significantly increases the lethality of current energy deficits.
Battlefield Geometry: The FLOT remains contested in the South (Zaporizhzhia/Stepnohirsk), while the Northern and Eastern axes are subject to heavy aerial bombardment (KABs/UAVs) intended to fix UAF reserves.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities & Intentions: RF is utilizing a "dual-track" strategy:
Strategic: Weaponizing the winter freeze to break civilian morale and disrupt rear-area logistics through grid saturation.
Tactical: Exploiting high-intensity KAB strikes in Donetsk to degrade defensive fortifications.
Logistics & Sustainment: Pro-RU sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, 1907Z) report weak fundraising results for tactical vehicles, and milbloggers (Podolyaka, 1918Z) are highlighting significant personnel losses. This suggests RF frontline units are facing increasing attrition despite operational momentum.
Course of Action: RF continues to push the "Greenland rift" narrative (1912Z, 1925Z) to create perceived friction between NATO and the US administration, likely as a shaping operation to reduce Western unified support.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Posture: UAF is in a consolidated defensive posture, prioritizing ISR and deep-strike capabilities to offset ground-force attrition.
Readiness: The establishment of the "Special Selector" daily briefing indicates a transition to an "Energy Martial Law" footing. The directive to OVAS to cut consumption (1904Z) suggests the national grid is nearing a "cascading failure" point.
Tactical Success: Confirmed successful drone strikes against RF concentrations (1901Z, Butusov) demonstrate that UAF remains lethal in the tactical zone despite rear-area infrastructure degradation.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Disinformation/Propaganda: RF sources are aggressively memorializing the 11th anniversary of the Donetsk Airport battle (19260Z) to bolster domestic morale. Concurrently, they are framing Western maritime interdiction of "shadow fleet" tankers (Veronica, Tavian) as "piracy" to justify future retaliatory strikes on commercial shipping.
Sentiment: While RF morale is being supported by tactical gains in Stepnohirsk, reports of 18 MVD personnel hospitalized in Syktyvkar provide a counter-narrative of domestic insecurity.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify night-time UAV (Shahed) strikes over the next 12 hours, specifically targeting repair crews and mobile substations in the Kyiv-Dnipro-Kharkiv triangle to prevent grid stabilization before the -22°C temperature drop.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF exploits the relaxation of curfews in energy-emergency zones to insert sabotage and reconnaissance groups (DRGs) into urban centers, disguised as civilian repair or emergency services, to seize key administrative nodes during blackout conditions.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High probability of sustained air alerts in Zhytomyr and Kyiv Oblasts due to UAV ingress.
Medium probability of a secondary kinetic strike on the Kharkiv energy hub to "double-tap" ongoing repair efforts.
Tactical focus remains on the Stepnohirsk-Zaporizhzhia axis; expect confirmed RF movements toward the H-08 highway.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm if RF Vostok grouping is consolidating in Stepnohirsk or moving north (47.58N, 35.53E). Task SIGINT/Drone ISR for 7th Mountain Assault Division communications.
[HIGH] Verify the status of the "Kakhovka Tunnel" rumor. Task SAR for fresh spoil piles or heavy engineering equipment near Kakhovka/Beryslav.
[MEDIUM] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the Taganrog "Atlant-Aero" strike is required to quantify the impact on RF UAV production timelines.
